Compute the swap rate from 1 cb date to the next, to imply the effective rate (you may need to add subtract a spread I.e. in USD, interbank swaps are traded versus SOFR or FF, if you use SoFR, typically that trades under FF and the fixing will be lower too). That implied fwd swap should give you the markets pricing of a what the average fixing over 1m or so should be. So say EFFR is 5.33 atm, the swap says 5.36. Assuming 25bps as a hike the probability of that happening is 12%.
Alternatively you could use the futures market.
Really depends on liquidity and index the swap references. Also, creating a swap curve is A LOT easier than a bond curve. In US for eg. I'd say swaps and futures are considerably more liquid than short end bonds and trade far more volume than any issue at the short end generally.