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I created a Short Iron condor on Nifty 50 index European option for 9 Nov weekly expiry on 1 Nov morning 10.30 AM (live market). It's payoff is showing always positive curve. Why ? However when same strategy with same strike price on same instrument I created after 1 hour at 11.30 AM ( live market) that is showing regular expected middle zone loss and two side zone profit as we study in finance books or theory. This whole time Nifty 50 index is rangebound around 19050 in the middle point. Why 10.30 AM strategy payoff is always positive ?

10.30 payoff diagram with strike price/premium details: enter image description here

11.30 payoff diagram with strike price/premium details: enter image description here

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  • $\begingroup$ What does LTP stand for. I assume with create do not actually mean a trade. Seems the AVG column simply was not an accurate price for the 18450 and had you tried to trade, you would have gotten a different price almost surely. $\endgroup$
    – AKdemy
    Nov 1, 2023 at 9:22
  • $\begingroup$ @AKdemy, here although column name is AVG but it is actually the price at which we bought/sold that option or started the trade, LTP is current price of that option. 1st screenshot order on 01-Nov at 10:28 AM Sell NIFTY 09Nov2023 19450 CE Price-22.3 QTY -50 Sell NIFTY 09Nov2023 18450 CE Price-680.05 QTY -50 Buy NIFTY 09Nov2023 18500 CE Price-586.85 QTY 50 Buy NIFTY 09Nov2023 19400 CE Price-28.8 QTY 50 $\endgroup$
    – pmr
    Nov 1, 2023 at 18:32
  • $\begingroup$ Something doesn't add up here. If you sold it at AVG, which is 680 but LTP supposedly is the current price (basically at the same time you bought it), you were able to sell it for substantially more than the current price. What time zone is this? $\endgroup$
    – AKdemy
    Nov 1, 2023 at 19:42
  • $\begingroup$ @AKdemy, I took both the screenshot around 11.30 AM so that is why LTP is same in both the screenshot. Nifty 50 is India country main Index, Time zone in India (GMT+5:30), if you see 18450 CE premium at 10.30 was 680.05, at 11.30 it's reduced to 632. Payoff calculation/graph is correct I checked it from other sources so can we conclude 1 week ahead Option was available at cheap, risk is there but as covering kind of both side +- 1.5SD zone, VIX in India was 10% so expiry profit amount would be low but that probability is high $\endgroup$
    – pmr
    Nov 2, 2023 at 7:07

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