Let's say I have the vol structure of ATM options of a stock on 4 months: $[10, 10, 13, 13]$ and i know hat there will be earnings announced on the $3$rd months.

Is it possible to estimate how much the stock is going to move on the third months?

Like for example can we say that since the the annnulized vol on the third month is $13$ then the daily vol is $13/16 = 0.8$, so on the earning day the stock is going to mobe by 0.8%? I don't really know if that reasonning is correct since only the day of the earning contribute to this increase in the IV. I feel like when I am doing: $13/16$ i am consideing that every day contribute to that increase in IV.



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