Linked Questions

40
votes
8answers
33k views

How does the “risk-neutral pricing framework” work?

I've struggled for a long time to understand this - What is this? And how does it affect you? Yes I mean risk neutral pricing - Wilmott Forums was not clear about that.
30
votes
5answers
5k views

Why aren't econometric models used more in Quant Finance?

There is a big body of literature on econometric models like ARIMA, ARIMAX or VAR. Yet to the best of my knowledge practically nobody is making use of that in Quantitative Finance. Yes, there is a ...
15
votes
5answers
1k views
+50

Why quants think that the risk-neutral measure should not be used for financial forecasting?

In posts regarding the $\mathbb{P}$ vs $\mathbb{Q}$ debate (see 1, 2, 3 or 4), most answers conclude that historical-based methods are better suited than risk-neutral models for financial predictions. ...
11
votes
5answers
10k views

Risk Neutral Probability

I read that an option prices is the expected value of the payout under the risk neutral probability. Intuitively why is the expectation taken with respect to risk neutral as opposed to the actual ...
8
votes
1answer
7k views

Baye's rule for conditional expectations (Proof review)

The Baye's rule for conditional expectations states $$ E^Q[X|\mathcal{F}]E^P[f|\mathcal{F}]=E^P[Xf|\mathcal{F}] $$ With $f=dQ/dP$ - thus being the Radon-Nikodyn derivative and $X$ being ...
7
votes
1answer
1k views

Arbitragefree Pricing: Q vs. P

I read that the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing states, that a market is arbitrage-free if and only if there exists an equivalent martingale measure Q, under which the discounted asset price ...
7
votes
2answers
573 views

Interpret simulation results ($P$ and $Q$ measures)

I am struggling in interpreting results of my simulations. I use Monte Carlo algorithm to simulate stock paths and calculate option price. The notation: $r$ is a risk free interest rate, $T$ is time ...
4
votes
1answer
1k views

How to price this basket option?

Underlying assets are three global stock index : Eurostoxx 50, HSI, KOSPI 200 Maturity: 36 months with advanced redemption date in every 6 months if prices of indexes satisfy given conditions at each ...
10
votes
1answer
625 views

What is the difference between risk neutral probabilities and stochastic discount factor?

My question is regarding the difference between risk neutral probabilities and stochastic discount factor? I am confused as to how are they related?
8
votes
1answer
465 views

$\mathbb{P}$ vs $\mathbb{Q}$ Probabilities - Transitioning Between Measures

I'd like this question to definitively guide a practitioner to using both $\mathbb{P}$ vs $\mathbb{Q}$ probabilities in trading and research. Let's take only one fact as given: if I have a risk-...
4
votes
1answer
374 views

Data Selection for Empirical Pricing Kernel Estimation (Stochastic Discount Factor)

I want to estimate an empirical pricing kernel for an index. Hence, I need to estimate a physical and risk neutral density. For estimating the physical density, only the index data in an observed time ...
2
votes
1answer
552 views

Relationship between risk-neutral probability and subjective probability

I recently came across a Paper by a paper of Rubinstein and Jackwerth (1997): http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.441.5214&rep=rep1&type=pdf where they assume that you ...
1
vote
1answer
343 views

How to infer real world measure from risk neutral measure

Assume we have inferred risk neutral density of stock price at time T from option prices. Assume we have obtained a parameterized density p(S). How can we infer real world measure? I know about ...
1
vote
1answer
114 views

construct volatility smile based on historic observations

So I calculated historic volatility/skewness/kurtosis for a commodity. I now would like to construct a volatility smile that reflects this historically realized distribution. I tried using some ...
2
votes
0answers
74 views

Use of real-world probabilities in options pricing: binary event with continuous effect

Let's say I have to price options on instrument X with a multitude of strikes. For simplicity, assume that X only makes one move during the options' lifetime, and this move is affected by some binary "...