Questions tagged [arch]

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ARCH; Expectation and Variance

I have got the following question that I am struggling to answer. The stock return $S_t$ follows the following DL model, with $Z_t$ being a dependent variable explaining the stock return: $S_t = \...
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1answer
50 views

When modelling ARCH/GARCH effects, do we use excess returns?

When modelling ARCH/GARCH effects, do we use excess returns? Is it common in the literature to use excess returns when modelling volatility as opposed to raw return data?
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1answer
81 views

ARCH Model: Which part does AR refer to?

My background is signal processing and I am fairly new to (financial) time series analysis. I was reading the article about autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) models on Wikipedia. ...
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1answer
260 views

Criticise GARCH relative to Realized Volatility

I would like to have your opinion about a simple question. While GARCH would be useful to calculate the conditional volatility, and the RV being in some sense the "historical" volatility, what would ...
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1answer
77 views

VaR estimation when returns are not independent, e.g. ARCH

Time series of returns, $r_t$, in finance are often modeled with some type of conditional heteroskedasticity model, e.g. ARCH(1): $$r_t = \sigma_t z_t$$ $$\sigma_t^2 = a_0 +a_1 r_{t-1}^2$$ where, ...
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2answers
720 views

What are the significant implications of the long-run average variance rate and why Engle won the Nobel Prize for ARCH model development?

In a ARCH(m) model we have $$ \sigma_n^2=\sum_{i=1}^{m} \alpha_i u_{n-i}^2 $$ where $u_i$ is defined as the continuously compounded return during day $i$ (between the end of day $i-1$ and the end of ...
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0answers
417 views

EWMA in python using the arch 3.2 package and pandas

I have a hard time figuring out whether my EWMA calculation of variance is correct when using the python package ARCH 3.2. Currently, I am doing the following: ...
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1answer
252 views

Define the order of GARCH(m.s)

I know that if the order of Arch(m) is over 3, we should use GARCH and GARCH(1,1) was proved to be the best. But was GARCH(1,1) proved to be available for any country's stock market? My result show ...
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0answers
256 views

Fourth moment of ARCH(2)

I am studying the ARCH(2) process given by $$X_t = \sqrt{h_t} \varepsilon_t$$ where $$h_t = \alpha_0 + \alpha_1 X_{t-1} ^2 + \alpha_2 X_{t-2} ^2$$ and $\varepsilon_t$ follows $N(0,1)$. ...
3
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1answer
350 views

Measure the effect of a natural disaster on a stock market index

I am very new to using stata and very new to using Garch models. I am currently doing my final dissertation for my MSc in Finance studies and regarding my topic I understood that i had to use garch to ...
3
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1answer
198 views

Accuracy of GARCH& ARCH forecast

I'm learing ARCH&GARCH model. I have four questions that I don't know the answers 1st: ARCH & GARCH are often used to evaluate equities. Does it mean that ARCH and GARCH are fitter for high ...
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0answers
222 views

How to decide if the ARCH coefficient is necessary in the GJR-GARCH model?

I did some analysis for CAC 40, the French market benchmark, for the period 2005-2014, and I tried to fit the data with a GJR(1,1) model in MATLAB. Then some warning showed Lower bound ...