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Questions tagged [asset-returns]

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Why can we assume that asset return rates are normally (or lognormally) distributed?

In many theories of financial mathematics it is assumed that asset return rates are normally distributed (e.g. VaR models) or lognormally distributed (e.g. Black-Scholes model). In practice, asset ...
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How to compare performance of a German stock

How would you compare the performance of a German stock listed in DAX? I heard many use Euro Stoxx 50. But wouldn’t be the obvious choice to use the DAX? Also, would you use DAX INDEX or DAX FUTURES?
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Distribution of simple returns vs logreturns

I understand that stock prices are conditionally modeled using a log normal distribution by the relationship $ y_t/y_{t−1}∼logN(μ_{daily},σ^2_{daily})$ $y_t∼logN(log(y_{t-1})+μ_{daily},σ^2_{...
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Investment evaluation benchmarks

I am writing software to aid in the evaluation of investment projects. Specifically, property based as a first step. I know about NPV and IRR and IRR feels like the best measure. So it gives me a ...
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98 views

Fama-Macbeth with Liquidity Sorted Portfolios

I'm currently working on a paper in which I'm trying to see whether the liquidity premium is an observable phenomena when taken into the context of computer games. From my research online I've found ...
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2answers
206 views

Central limit theorem and normality assumption of asset return distribution

Can central theorem justify normality assumption of assets return distribution? And if it can why the empirical evidence show this assumption, which many finance models are based on, is a far cry from ...
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3answers
172 views

The possible preferences of investors for higher than first 2 moments of return distribution?

Can anyone explain in an intuitive manner a justification for possible preferences of investors for moments of return distribution beyond the first two moments (i.e. mean and variance). For example, ...
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Is variation in price-dividend ratios that is attributable to excess returns due to variation in returns or variation in risk free rates?

Cochrane and Fama show that "all variation in price-dividend ratios corresponds to changes in expected excess returns -risk premiums- and none corresponds to news about future dividend growth". Is ...
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2k views

Definition of log return of an asset [closed]

What is the general usage of the term daily log returns $Y_t$ of an asset? (1) or (2)? $$(1) \text{ } Y_t = log (\frac{p_t}{p_{t-1}})$$ OR $$(2) \text{ } Y_t = log (\frac{p_t-p_{t-1}}{p_{t-1}})$$ for ...
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1answer
97 views

Why should we care if the “squares of returns are independently distributed over time” to choose an adequate model of the distribution of returns?

In a Time Series Book by Hashem Pesaran, he mentions that there are a number of issues that need to be addressed in order to choose an adequate model for predicting asset returns. I understand the ...
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1answer
425 views

Cumulative portfolio returns vs. product of cumulative asset returns

I wasn't able to find something that addressed this specifically with the search terms I was using, though I am sure an answer exists here. [Please reference the image below] Columns B & C are ...
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1answer
245 views

Private Equity: Direct Alpha vs Excess IRR

I'm trying to understand the advantages and disadvantages of using Direct Alpha versus Excess IRR for computing excess returns over a market index for private assets. Wikipedia references a highly ...
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5answers
660 views

Modeling Long-Term Mean Reversion in Asset Returns

Fortunately, for obvious reasons, few applications require simulating asset returns over horizons in excess of 30 years. Nevertheless, simulations over long horizons are sometimes conducted as part ...
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1answer
155 views

Modelling fund positioning using fund returns and linear regression

I want to measure the positioning of an active bond mutual fund vs. its benchmark via rolling linear regression of returns vs several factors. The intuition of using linear regression is that the ...
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1answer
92 views

How did Dimson, Marsh and Staunton (2002) computed the equity index annual real return?

I was trying to read the triumph of the optimist, but it was almost impossible to see a well-written formula to show how the returns have been computed. In a simple sense, I do not know how the annual ...
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1answer
129 views

Simple simulation model of bond plus cash returns

Is there a robust way to model 'bond plus cash' simulated returns, say in Excel, for an asset allocation problem between stocks vs bond plus cash? For equity, ...
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2answers
96 views

Significance of return under stable distribution

if I want to use t-test to test significance of my returns, it assumes the random variable is distributed normally. But in my work I work under stable distributed ...
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1answer
477 views

How to simulate asset returns using student t?

I am currently trying to simulate an asset return using the student-t distribution, but I can't find how I should do this. I began with the Geometric Brownian motion and just changed in order that ...
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0answers
38 views

Polynomial interpolation of corrected lognormal distribution

Can anyone provide a formula for a polynomial interpolation of the corrected lognormal distribution used to model returns traditionally resulting from the wrong Brownian motion generated model? ...
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0answers
54 views

Is a position-weighted sum of nominal returns for a single asset a mathematically sound calculation?

A friend of mine insists that that the following is a sound method to calculate the performance of a single holding in a portfolio, given that over time more capital has been allocated to that holding....
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Computing Overall Return for A Single Asset Given Inflows & Outflows

I am creating a portfolio tracking model in Excel and have run into difficulty on how to track the overall performance of a single asset, given that over time more and less capital (shares) has been ...
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5answers
2k views

Intuition behind Fama-French factors

In the Fama-French 3-factor model the portfolio returns are explained by the market the SMB factor (Small [market capitalization] Minus Big) and the HML factor (High [book-to-market ratio] Minus Low)...
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1answer
650 views

Back to Basics — Cumulative Returns

I recently came across a chart of Fama-French's (FF) HML factor cumulative performance. I first saw this in an article by AQR's Cliff Asness: http://www.institutionalinvestor.com/Article/3315202/Asset-...
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Disaggregating stock performance and dividend yield

I modeled the performance of several portfolios with adjusted close data and would now like to understand how much of it is driven by changes in stock price and dividend payouts. I have all the data ...
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2answers
468 views

Empirical distribution function of overlapping time series data

If we model asset return volatility for periods of more than one (say more than one day) there is the square-root rule which holds true under some assumptions. The situation is more tricky if we look ...
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1answer
1k views

How to get get weekly returns from daily data

Good day I would like to get weekly returns data from daily data , I want to use the Wednesday-to-Wednesday approach – the returns (rt) are computed from the Wednesday closing prices Pt , i.e., rt = ...
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1answer
332 views

How to compute daily compounded backtest returns closer to real-world results?

I often run quick tests of trading strategies in my analytics suites by: multiplying a vector of signal (lagged, {-1,0,1}) with a time series of daily percentage returns doing a cumulative product of ...
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2answers
719 views

Problem when calculating the daily return on a forex trade, what is the best way to do such a calculation?

I intend to calculate the daily return on my investment in forex. Assume a trader invests $\$$40 at a leverage of 100:1, so in total he is trading $\$$4000 worth of currency, and assume the position ...
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1answer
203 views

Calculating returns for a mutual fund with dividends

I'd like to calculate returns for a given mutual fund (in this case, PRWCX from troweprice). When I look at their published performance, it says the Calendar Year Total Returns for 2013 is 22.43% but ...
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3answers
2k views

Trading days or Calendar days for Compound Annual Growth Rate?

When calculating CAGR for intervals shorter than a year (or intervals that are longer than, but not integer years in length), should you use the 252 trading days or the 365.25 calendar days? The ...
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2answers
12k views

What is the price pressure?

What is the definition of price pressure and what does it imply? In a number of paper I read that the price pressure can influence the portfolio returns; can you explain why and in which way it can ...
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3answers
1k views

Why are factor models so popular for risk analysis of portfolios?

As titled, my question consists on asking for why in the most of academic papers one almost always finds that when you try to model asset returns, one needs to adjust for risk factors before analyzing ...
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3answers
5k views

How to calculate return rates with negative prices?

I'm dealing with electricity options and I'm considering the possibilty of negative prices. I want two estimate the historic volatility. However, an arithmetic mean doesn't feel appropriate and $\log(\...
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1answer
490 views

Toy models of asset returns

When making simple agent-based models of banking systems to look at global properties (say systemic risk) one of the basic decisions you have to make is how to model returns on external (to the ...
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2answers
4k views

Computing the Sharpe Ratio

The building blocks of the Sharpe ratio—expected returns and volatilities—are unknown quantities that must be estimated statistically and are subject to estimation error. The main problem I have is ...
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3answers
1k views

What data transformations to use in regression of credit spreads on equity prices?

Clearly there is a strong relationship between credit spreads and equity prices (both theoretically and empirically). But how would one go about formulating a regression which seeks to explain this ...
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2answers
26k views

How to calculate equally weighted market portfolio

There's two studies that test the same thing in different markets (i.e. they apply the identical methodology). They state: 1) "$R_{mt}$ is the equally weighted average stock return in the dual-listed ...
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1answer
15k views

Discrete returns versus log returns of assets

There have been similar posts here already but nevertheless I find the question worth posting: why do some people claim that log returns of assets are more suitable for statistics than discrete ...