# Questions tagged [betting]

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### Are risk neutral probabilities (for the arbitrage theorem) the same no matter what betting strategy is chosen?

I am learning the basics of risk neutral probability and arbitrage theorem. The arbitrage thm states that given a series of bets $r_{1}, ..., r_{n}$ either there is arbitrage, or there exists a ...
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### Bet sizing to actual orders

At chapter 10.2 in Advances in Financial Machine Learning it says: Suppose that one strategy produced a sequence of bet sizes $[m_{1,1}, m_{1,2}, m_{1,3}] = [.5, 1, 0]$, as the market price followed ...
1 vote
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### To gamble or not to gamble! (solving a system of ODEs maybe?)

Assume we have some money. At every point in time $0\le t \le T$, we can take either action 1 that is to keep our money until $T$ say in a bank and have an expected return of $f(t)$ or take action 2 ...
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### Kelly Criterion for Multiple Simultaneous Correlated Bets [closed]

I am looking for an equation for the optimal fractional bet sizing for N number of simultaneous correlated bets. I am looking specifically for an equation for binary bets, but an equation for bets ...
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You have $x$ red cards and $y$ black cards. I flip them over one at a time. The probability of flipping a particular colour is proportional to the amount of those coloured cards left. You start with $... • 155 1 vote 1 answer 252 views ### Alternatives to Kelly Criterion I am preparing for Quantitative Trading interviews and I know that they basically require you to solve problems on the probability of winning in a given game and then they would ask you: How much ... • 155 1 vote 1 answer 145 views ### Dice question - expected winnings of rolling dice$2$times Typical trading interviews consider gambling problems such as rolling a dice and winning its face value. The expected winnings are$\\\$3.5$, $\\\$4.25$,$\\\$\frac{14}{3}$ for one throw, two throws, ...
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270 views

I have a question after reading the post below. https://www.onlinebetting.org.uk/betting-guides/can-you-bet-on-anything-you-want.html Question: I want to bet on a niche topic or asset or anything that ...
1 vote
59 views

### is the concept of skew observed in fixed odds betting markets?

Bear with me if this sounds a little flippant, but this has got me curious. I know "sports arbitrage" is an active economic activity, although the arbitrage arguments, I think, are not ...
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1 vote
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### What happens to the stake of a lay bettor on a betting exchange?

As an example, let’s say you want to lay a horse at 3.40. To win £10 your liability would be £24. In other words, you are offering odds of 3.40 to someone else who is backing the horse to win with a ...
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1 vote
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### How is the "probabilities sum to $1$" rule enforced in betting exchanges?

Suppose that I am interested in a market on a betting exchange for the outright winner of some event, with three competitors, $A, B$ and $C$ with corresponding probabilities of winning $a, b$ and $c$. ...
1k views

### Which sports are generally the best for trading on betting exchanges for a profit?

I am looking at trading bets on tennis, football and horse racing in particular as these appear to have the most liquidity. How much background research and how much trial and error is generally ...
8k views

### Predicting Price Movements on a Betting Exchange

On a betting exchange the price (the odds that an event will happen expressed as a decimal, 1/(percentage chance event occurring) of a runner can experience a great deal of volatility before the event ...
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