Questions tagged [betting]

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2
votes
1answer
96 views

Kelly Criterion for Multiple Simultaneous Correlated Bets [closed]

I am looking for an equation for the optimal fractional bet sizing for N number of simultaneous correlated bets. I am looking specifically for an equation for binary bets, but an equation for bets ...
2
votes
1answer
79 views

Kelly Criterion — maximize expected value and minimize the variance in card game with $x$ red and $y$ black cards

You have $x$ red cards and $y$ black cards. I flip them over one at a time. The probability of flipping a particular colour is proportional to the amount of those coloured cards left. You start with $...
1
vote
1answer
129 views

Alternatives to Kelly Criterion

I am preparing for Quantitative Trading interviews and I know that they basically require you to solve problems on the probability of winning in a given game and then they would ask you: How much ...
1
vote
1answer
125 views

Dice question - expected winnings of rolling dice $2$ times

Typical trading interviews consider gambling problems such as rolling a dice and winning its face value. The expected winnings are $\\\$3.5$, $\\\$4.25$, $\\\$\frac{14}{3}$ for one throw, two throws, ...
0
votes
1answer
219 views

Trade anything?

I have a question after reading the post below. https://www.onlinebetting.org.uk/betting-guides/can-you-bet-on-anything-you-want.html Question: I want to bet on a niche topic or asset or anything that ...
1
vote
0answers
52 views

is the concept of skew observed in fixed odds betting markets?

Bear with me if this sounds a little flippant, but this has got me curious. I know "sports arbitrage" is an active economic activity, although the arbitrage arguments, I think, are not ...
1
vote
1answer
69 views

What happens to the stake of a lay bettor on a betting exchange?

As an example, let’s say you want to lay a horse at 3.40. To win £10 your liability would be £24. In other words, you are offering odds of 3.40 to someone else who is backing the horse to win with a ...
0
votes
0answers
60 views

How does Smarkets betting exchange actually work?

I have been wondering how betting exchanges like Smarkets actually work. If I back or lay a particular outcome, I have to wait until one other individual matches it by doing the opposite. For example, ...
1
vote
2answers
204 views

How much shall we bet on head/tail with $1m bankroll?

I was asked this question in a trading interview: how much would you bet in a game where you win 300 on tail and loses your 100 on heads? how much will you bet if you can play game once or multiple ...
0
votes
1answer
141 views

What's the expected value of a repeated game with 50% chance to win 0.5 and 50% to lose 0.5?

Assume we start with 1. In the first bet the expected value of remained balance is 1.5 * 0.5 + 0.5 * 0.5 = 1 For N times, is it still 1 according to E(XYZ)=E(X)E(Y)E(Z)? But 1.5^50 * 0.5^50 is not 1. ...
4
votes
2answers
238 views

What is the priority of the waiting non-matched bets, when a match becomes available in Betfair?

Say the back price (odds) on a market is $2.5$. Then the following time sequence happens: Bettor $A$ places a back bet with price $2.6$, for $\$100$ (it will not match) Then bettor $B$ places a ...
4
votes
1answer
193 views

How is the "probabilities sum to $1$" rule enforced in betting exchanges?

Suppose that I am interested in a market on a betting exchange for the outright winner of some event, with three competitors, $A, B$ and $C$ with corresponding probabilities of winning $a, b$ and $c$. ...
3
votes
1answer
1k views

Which sports are generally the best for trading on betting exchanges for a profit?

I am looking at trading bets on tennis, football and horse racing in particular as these appear to have the most liquidity. How much background research and how much trial and error is generally ...
8
votes
5answers
8k views

Predicting Price Movements on a Betting Exchange

On a betting exchange the price (the odds that an event will happen expressed as a decimal, 1/(percentage chance event occurring) of a runner can experience a great deal of volatility before the event ...
23
votes
4answers
7k views

The application of quantitative finance in sports betting

I notice that, on the surface, there are some similarities between quantitative sports betting and quantitative finance. Both have the concept of arbitraging, etc. What are the applications of ...