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Questions tagged [brownian-motion]

In mathematics, Brownian motion is described by the Wiener process; a continuous-time stochastic process named in honor of Norbert Wiener.

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7
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2answers
261 views

Stochastic Integral Graph

As we can represent the integration of $f(x)$ on $[a,b]$ with the graph below, I was wondering how to represent the following integral with $X(t)$ a Brownian motion, $f(t)$ any function and $t_j = ...
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0answers
67 views

Integrals with respect to Brownian motion

I have two questions: Let $(B_t)$ be a Brownian motion. Find all constants $a$ and $b$ such that $X_t =\int_a^t (a +b\frac{u}{t}) \mathrm{d}B_u$ is also a Brownian motion. Find all constants $a$, $b$...
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0answers
28 views

Swap rate in the annuity measure and Martingale Representation Theorem

As we know, swap rate evolves as a martingale in the appropriate annuity measure. Martingale representation theorem says if I can find a Brownian motion in the annuity measure and the swap rate is ...
5
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2answers
188 views

More questions about integral of Brownian Motion w.r.t time

A similar question have been posted earlier but one part has remained unanswered. Let us define: $$X_t = \int_0^t W_s ds,$$ where $W_t$ is a standard Brownian Motion. Is $X_t$ an Itô process or a ...
1
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2answers
139 views

What is the stock price expectation?

The Hull textbook (and accompanying technical note) says that the expected stock price $\mathbb{E}[S_T]=S_0 \exp(\mu T)$. However, the answers to a British actuarial examination (Q4 for September 2018)...
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3answers
139 views

How to calculate standard deviation of continuously compounded four-year stock returns?

Currently I am preparing for quant interview and I encounter the following question in Heard on the street. Question: If the standard deviation of continuously compounded annual stock returns is $...
1
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1answer
72 views

Mathematical proof of $g = \mu - \frac{\sigma^2}{2}$ relationship between CAGR and average returns

I found in a paper the relation between the CAGR and the arithmetic average of returns to be $$g \sim \mu - \frac{\sigma^2}{2}$$ where g is the geometric average, $\mu$ the arithmetic average and $ ...
4
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1answer
115 views

Invariance Scaling of Brownian Motion

Prove $\frac{1}{\sqrt{t}}\log\left(\int_0^t \exp(B_s)\mathrm{d}s\right)$ converges to $\sup\limits_{t\in [0,1]}B_t$ in distribution as $t\to\infty$. I have a sense to use scaling invariance, but no ...
1
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1answer
37 views

Moments of discrete Asset Price Model

Say if B is standard Brownian motion then: $S(t) = S0e^{((𝜇- σ^2)/2)t+σB(t)}$ The mean of this SDE would be $𝐄[𝑆(𝑡)]=𝑆_0𝑒^{𝜇𝑡}$ I know to do this you use the density function and ...
1
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1answer
75 views

Integrating Brownian Motion [closed]

I just wonder how to integrate standard Brownian motion on time interval $(t, T)$. Let $Z$ be a standard Brownian motion with mean $0$ and standard deviation $1$, with $dZ^2 = dt$. How to derive the ...
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2answers
137 views

Understanding $N(d_1)$ and $N(d_2)$

Firstly, if the solution to geometric Brownian motion is $S_t = S_0 \exp((r-\sigma^2)t + \sigma W_t$ then if I have a payment that is not necessarily a full call option e.g. if the exercise price $K$ ...
0
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0answers
30 views

Risk neutral measure in the binomial approximation of geometric Brownian motion

Suppose an asset is described by geometric Brownian motion with a drift, i.e. $$dS_t = S_t\mu dt + S_t \sigma dW_t$$ for a Wiener process $W_t$ and $S_0=1$. By some consequence of Girsanov's theorem (...
2
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0answers
39 views

How to calculate the multiple integrals where the integral domain is based on the sum of normal distribution random variables?

The integral is shown below: And how to use python to calculate pi (better if we don't need to code for each pi)?
2
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1answer
86 views

What is the annualized realized volatility of simulated Brownian motion paths?

I saw this following question in an exam. Take a Brownian motion simulation with drift 5% and annualized volatility of 20% for a period of 1 year. Then the annualized realized volatility of the ...
0
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0answers
32 views

Negative drift when calibrating GBM parameters

Setup for question: Consider a basket of $N$ stocks $\{S^1, S^2, \dots, S^N\}$. For fixed strike $K$, each stock in the basket, $S^i$, follows the SDE $$dS_t^i = \mu^i(t) S_t^i dt + \sigma^i(K, t) ...
1
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2answers
280 views

Probability that the price of stock following a brownian motion goes under a certain value

The price of the stock XYZ follows a brownian motion pattern with starting price = 10, μ = 0 and σ = 20 (on annual basis). What's the probability that in 6 months the price is less or equal to 8? ...
2
votes
1answer
65 views

Valuation of Cash-Or-Nothing option

Studying options pricing, I'm stuck with the following problem: The price of a stock is described by the dynamic: $$dS_t = \mu\, dt + \sigma\,dW_t$$ Compute the fair price of a Cash or Nothing ...
1
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1answer
43 views

In search of double barrier out option on a BM

We have a BM $X_t$ with $dX_t=\sigma dB_t$ ($X_0$ not necessarily zero!) under the risk neutral measure $\Bbb Q$. Given upper barrier $U$, lower barrier $L$, "strike" $K$ such that $L<X_0<U, L&...
1
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1answer
85 views

Proof standard Brownian Motion under change of measure

Let's split the usual time horizon $[0,T]$ like $0=T_{0}<T_{1}<\dots<T_{n}=T$ and consider the bond price $P(t,T_{i})$ for $i=1,...,n$. We assume $$\frac{dP(t,T_{i})}{P(t,_{i})}=r_{t}dt+\xi_{...
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0answers
74 views

How to solve these SDE Problems

Quuestion1. I make a solution $r(t)$ used by Ito's lemma $r(t)=e^{-a t}r(0)+\int _{0}^{t}e^{a (s-t)}\theta (s)ds+\sigma e^{-a t}\int _{0}^{t}e^{a u}\,dB^{1}(u)$ Is this right? and I try to make ...
1
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1answer
110 views

Brownian Motions theorems

I know that if $W$ and $W′$ are two independent brownian motions, then $dWt \ dWt′$ = 0. How can I prove/demonstrate this theorem? Additionaly, how can we prove that if $W$ and $W′$ are dependent, ...
3
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1answer
148 views

Correlation between stock prices given correlation between returns

assume I have two stocks with known volatilities and a known correlation coefficient of returns - does anyone know how to determine the correlation between the prices and NOT THE RETURNS
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0answers
92 views

Predicting time series using Jump Diffusion model and Neural Networks

I am trying to understand the difference between using Jump diffusion model and Neural Networks or more precisely LSTM to predict time series data regardless what that data contains for example a ...
1
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0answers
45 views

Brownian motion from price-series, what is the time step?

If I assume a given empirical price-series is a brownian motion, I can estimate the drift and standard deviation as long as I know what the time step was when the process was 'generated'. But since ...
4
votes
1answer
459 views

Ito`s Lemma problem

Can someone help me with calculus for this problem. I have these 3 equations and with Ito`s Lemma I have to find $dXt$. \begin{cases} dY= μYdt+σYdB \\ X=\frac{1}{2}cY\\ dc =-aαcdt\end{cases}
2
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2answers
179 views

Geometric Brownian Motion - Price Probabilities

I am modeling a stock price that follows Geometric Brownian Motion and have the following: $E(X)$ = .16 (16%) $\sigma$ = .24 (24%) $X_0$ = 95 $T$ = 1 (12 months) I am trying to find the ...
1
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0answers
86 views

The conditional expectation of a geometric brownian motion

In this question it states that $$\mathbb{E}[e^{\sigma(W_t-W_s)}|\mathcal{F}_s] = \mathbb{E}[e^{\sigma(W_t-W_s)}],$$ and I assume that $0 \leq s \leq t$. The accepted answer states that this step is ...
4
votes
1answer
117 views

Geometric Brownian Motion unable to model / predict jumps

In my finance course, we were talking about the flaws of modelling Stock Prices with the geometric Brownian Motion. According to my professor: "Since the geometric Brownian Motion has continous time ...
2
votes
0answers
56 views

Novikov condition for Vasicek process

Suppose that we have a money account $S^{(0)}$ with dynamics \begin{align} dS^{(0)}_{t} = r_{t} S^{(0)}_{t}\, dt, \end{align} where \begin{align} dr_t = a(b-r_t)\, dt + \sigma_{r} \, dW_t^{(0)}. \...
1
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1answer
128 views

Bitcoin dynamics - C++ Simulation

I would like perform a simulation of Bitcoin future prices given a sample of the 4 past years (2014-2018). My problem is that I do not know what model to use! For common stocks I used the geometric ...
5
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0answers
80 views

Distribution of portfolio values with constant spending rate

If your portfolio is invested in an asset that follows a geometric Brownian motion, and you withdraw a constant dollar amount at the beginning of each year, is there an approximate analytical ...
3
votes
2answers
129 views

Find the brownian motion associated to a linear combination of dependant brownian motions

I have $N$ correlated standard one-dimensional Brownian motions $W_1,\ldots,W_N$ with correlation matrix $\rho$ and I consider the process $Z_t \equiv \sum_{i=1}^N \mu_i (t) W_t$ where the $\mu_i$ are ...
1
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0answers
64 views

Brownian motion for modelling future asset values

Assume that an asset price $S$ is given by a Brownian motion. Argue from the definition why it is not possible to predict future values of the asset based on the past values of $S$. I am not sure ...
1
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0answers
167 views

Geometric Brownian Motion with Dividends

I am working on a problem and had a quick question. I understand that for Geometric Brownian Motion we use the formula: $$X_{t_n} = X_{t_{n-1}} + \mu X_{t_{n-1}} \Delta t + \sigma X_{t_{n-1}} \...
2
votes
0answers
103 views

For an Ito Process, $d\ln{X} \neq \frac{dX}{X}$ and $(d\ln{X})^2 = (\frac{dX}{X})^2$, but $d\ln{X} \neq \pm \frac{dX}{X}$

In normal calculus we can write $d\ln{x} = \frac{dx}{x}$ since there is no quadratic variation to deal with. This isn't true for stochastic processes, and Ito's Lemma is used to calculate $d\ln{X}$. ...
1
vote
1answer
37 views

CDF&density of stock price modeled by standard brownian motion

Assume that the price of the stock follows the model $S(t) = S(0) exp ( mt − ((σ^2)/2 ) t + σW(t) )$ , (1) where W(t) is a standard Brownian motion; σ > 0, S(0) > 0, m are some constants. Derive the ...
1
vote
1answer
65 views

Expectation and variance of standard brownian motion

Assuming that the price of the stock follows the model $ S(t) = S(0) exp ( mt − (σ^2/ 2) t + σW(t) ) , $ where W(t) is a standard Brownian motion; σ > 0, S(0) > 0, m are some ...
2
votes
1answer
81 views

If S(t) is geometric Brownian motion, what is the distribution of S(t+h)-S(t)?

Suppose we have a geometric Brownian $S(t)$ which follows a lognormal process. Say $$ \begin{equation} dS_t = \mu S_t dt + \sigma S_tdW_t \end{equation} $$ My question is what is the distribution of $...
1
vote
2answers
113 views

How to numerically simulate exponential stochastic integral

For example given an integral $$ \int^t_0 \exp(aW(t'))\,dt', t\in\mathbb R_+ $$ where $W(t')$ is a standard Wiener process. I've been very confused about stochastic integrals like $\int^t_0 W(t')\,...
4
votes
1answer
181 views

Ito's Lemma for this problem

I'm attempting to prove a lemma from a paper, in the context of optimal contracts. $r,\rho,\gamma,\alpha,\sigma$ are all known constants. $dR_t = (\alpha + r)dt + \sigma dZ_t$ where $Z_t$ is a ...
1
vote
1answer
161 views

Correlated stock prices and geometric Brownian motion

I have two uncorrelated stocks which follow geometric Brownian motion, as follows $$\begin{aligned} dS_a &= \mu_aS_adt + \sigma_aS_adW\\ dS_b &= \mu_bS_bdt + \sigma_bS_b dW \end{aligned}$$ ...
1
vote
0answers
108 views

On quadratic covariation

I ran through an equality in a paper I was reading but couldn't check if it is correct. Let $W^1_t$, $W^2_t$ and $W^3_t$ be three brownian motions, not necessarily independent, is it true that the ...
1
vote
1answer
163 views

Measure of a Brownian motion = normal distribution?

Consider some model where the process increments are normally distributed, e.g. Vasicek: $$dr(t) = \left(\theta - ar(t)\right)dt + \sigma dW(t).$$ We usually say that $W(t)$ is a Brownian motion ...
3
votes
1answer
162 views

Differential of integral of Wiener process over time

I am trying to compute this quantity: $\frac{d}{dt}\int_{0}^{t} W_s ds $ Where $W_t$ is a Wiener process. Is there a theorem which tells how this can be computed? I have tried https://en.wikipedia....
3
votes
1answer
219 views

Why is it more accurate to simulate ln(S) rather than S?

Let's take a process $S$ that satisfies: \begin{equation} dS = \mu S dt + \sigma S dz \end{equation} with $dz$ a Wiener process, $\sigma$ the volatility of $S$, $\mu$ the expected return of $S$. From ...
2
votes
1answer
359 views

How to get the probability of exercise call option in Black-Scholes model?

From Black-Scholes model, I'm trying to prove: $p(S_t>K) = N(d_2)$ No luck yet! Can anyone suggest a reference showing that how to obtain this equation? All I get is: $S_t = S_0e^{ (\mu-0.5 \...
2
votes
1answer
134 views

Dynamical Behavior of Hurst Exponent

I feel that the dynamic of financial market is not really modeled by standard Brownian motion, but fractional Brownian motion or even multifractional Brownian motion. I have read some references on ...
2
votes
4answers
216 views

Basic book on stochastic calculus, Itô and jump processes and Brownian Motion

I was looking for a good book that explains at beginner-level the basic of stochastic calculus, probability and random variables, Itô and jump processes as well as Brownian Motion. At university we ...
4
votes
1answer
116 views

Expected payoff at future time

Let $a$, $b$, $c$, and $e$ be constants, $W_1$ and $W_2$ be Brownian motions with correlation $\rho$, and $f(t)$ and $g(t)$ be deterministic functions of time. Let $X$ satisfy $$d(X(t))=(aX(t)+ef(t)g(...
3
votes
1answer
83 views

The conditional mean of a product of standard Brownian motions [closed]

Suppose $\{W_t, t>=0\}$ is a Standard Brownian Motion. How to compute $ \mathbb{E} \left[ W_2 W_3 \vert W_1 =0 \right]$? We know $ W_2 \vert W_1 = 0 \sim N(0,1)$ and $ W_3 \vert W_1 = 0 \sim N(0,...