Questions tagged [cointegration]

Cointegration is often used in statistical abitrage as a way to identify how to combine some tradable instrument to obtain a *mean reverting* one.

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Assets cointegration: optimal inventory for futures market

I'm interested in HFT cointegration stratagies, and recently found interesting article "Algorithmic Trading of Co-Integrated Assets" The article describes mean-reversion strategy for N-assets. ...
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Law of one Price and Cointegration relationship

I have a question on the relationship between the law of one price and cointegration of (financial) time series. To set things clear I start with something simple: Suppose there is an unobserved "...
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Philips-Ouliaris test for cointegration

I'm trying to implement cointegration tests using the R urca package. I've figured out the Johansen test (ca.jo), but I'm having trouble with the Philips-Ouliaris test (ca.po). I have two questions: ...
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Cointegration where first differences are not jointly stationary

Note: This is a crosspost from this post on cross-validated, where it did not receive an answer. I thought I might have better luck here. I am looking for a rigorous and general treatment of ...
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163 views

Johansen cointegration Test for spread generation

I'm using the python statsmodels version of the johansen cointegration test and I'm looking for some advice on how best to generate the spread used within a pairs trading algorithm. For example I've ...
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Cointegration between prices and dividends. How do I get the following expression?

Actually, I have two questions: 1. Let us assume that expected returns are constant. Then, we have the following expression for how the prices should be determined, provided that the operators are ...
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61 views

Spurious regression between two futures with the same underlying highly correlated (cor=0.9)

analyzing the correlation between soybean and soybean meal futures in ECBOT, and making a linear regression in R between them I check with an ADF Test that the residuals are not stationary, so ...
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414 views

cointegration strategy

If it can be proved that two time series $$S_t^1=\alpha + \beta S_t^2 + \xi_t$$ representing stocks are correlated, with $\beta=-2$ and then are proved to be cointegrated, how a portfolio should be ...
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722 views

Johansen cointegration test interpretation in R

I want to test my time series for cointegration using the Johansen test in R. I got the following result and so I know now that at least 5 out of 9 of my time series are cointegrated. My question is, ...
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388 views

pairs trading or long short strategy given volatility of the stocks

Suppose I have 2 stocks and the only thing I know about them is their volatility and that they cointegrate. Let's say vol of stock A is 25% and B is 20%. Will I be able to find a hedge ratio only ...
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361 views

Modelling long run relationship between dividend and earnings

I am working on a paper where I have to model the long run relationship between earnings and dividends. I have downloaded the raw data from shillers website. I have converted the series to log(...
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Given a cointegrated portfolio of stocks, how to build a synthetic option position by using the options on the stocks

The setting Let stocks $A$, $B$, and $C$ are cointegrated. Moreover, we know the weights of the cointegrated portfolio (scaled so that the absolute value of the maximum weight is $0.5$): $w_A = 0.15$ ...
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Pairs Trading (Cointegration Approach) - Daily Cointegration Test

I have a question regarding the Pairs Trading strategy based on the Cointegration Approach. Most of the papers/literature I found on Pairs Trading using the Cointegration Approach are usually testing ...
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Spot trading: exact mathematical definition of the positions for a portfolio

Let us say that I want to spot trade a portfolio constituted of a pair of two stocks of respective prices (for example in USD) $S^1_t$ and $S^2_t$, and suppose for example that they co-integrate ...
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64 views

Fractional cointegration in R

I'm looking for a package (or some code that anyone has written) that will help me to estimate a VECM for fractionally cointegrated series. I.e. like the ca.jo ...
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138 views

Pairs trading strategy: Portfolio returns and NAV

Currently trying a pairs trading approach using cointegration. Tried both formations: $$log(P_t^A)=log(P_t^B) \hat{\gamma}+\hat{\mu}+\epsilon_t \hspace{0.5cm} (1)$$ $$P_t^A=P_t^B \hat{\gamma}+\hat{\...
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Johansen Cointegration Test in R

I know its probably been asked bevor but i just don't get it. I have 2 values (Oil and corn price) and i want to check if they are cointegrated. Bevor that, i have tested if they really are non ...
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107 views

Cointegration between daily time series and intraday time series

I am working with time series data of daily prices, and intraday prices. For simplicity sake I will refer to the daily time series as 'A' and 'B', and the intraday time series of the same instruments ...
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Is my coding for my kalman filter off when testing this specific set of pairs?

My kalman filter seems to be off for this specific set of pairs I'm looking at. As you can see, in the kalman filtered linear regression, there seems to be an outlying blue line nowhere near the data ...
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Cointegration and pairs trading

I have intuition that cointegration between elements of pair of equities somehow contradicts pairs trading strategies. Because the better is linear fit of the model the less opportunities we have for ...
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108 views

how to mix trading signals for the same product?

I have multiple trading signals developed using cointegration on the same stock using various correlated assets. Is there a mathematical way to combine them to achieve better entry/exit points and ...
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479 views

Cointegration for forex using ARMA model to forecast the spread

I am working on an automatized quantitative strategy that use cointegration in Forex. I am backtesting this strategy in Python. Please see below the python file: https://drive.google.com/file/d/...
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103 views

Problem with overlapping data when testing futures market efficiency

In my case non-overlapping data would represent the scenario where futures prices (3 months) do not correspond to the futures spot prices in terms of delivery date. For example, futures settlement ...
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101 views

Estimating Daily Dynamics using Hourly Data

This article gives a nice outline of how daily data can be used to estimate cointegration on a monthly horizon. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1404905 I'd like to use the same ...
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102 views

Cointegration and variance of time series

Given that $X_t , Y_t$ are two cointegrated random processes, what can we say about the relationship between variance of the two increments $var(X_{t+h}-X_t)$ , $var(Y_{t+h}-Y_t)$ for a given $h>0$...
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Cointegration Test: Residual is stationary but not random?

I am testing cointegration relationship on various pairs of stocks by this following these steps. Test for I(1) on a pair of stocks, says X and Y, using Dickey-Fuller test. If both time series are ...
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123 views

Pairs Trading: Normalized price series (co-integrated and correlated) always end up diverging

Need some expert advice and suggestions: I am trying out pairs trading or statistical arbitrage (as traders say). But even if two price series are co-integrated (ADF test, Hurst exponent, Ornstein–...
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Understanding output from Johansen Cointegration test

I have a VECM model that Im using to determine the revenues for a firm, based on factors like Interest rates, S&P 500 and company specific variables, as follows: Stage 1: $$z_t= a+ bX_t+e_t$$ ...
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Engle-Granger Regression for returns or prices?

Im trying to find a cointegration relationship between a spot and futures series as I'd like to compute the optimal hedge ratios. As I find the spot and futures at the price level to be nonstationary, ...
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pair trading cointegration - calculating shares quantities traded, portfolio value and returns

I have a trading strategy based on the cointegration of X and Y where beta derived from the regression is 0.7. My initial capital to invest is 1000. My understanding that the quantities of X and Y to ...