Questions tagged [credit-risk]
The risk that a borrower will default on any type of debt by failing to make required payments and that the corresponding lender suffers a loss.
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Where can I find bank lending dataset cross the world?
I am doing research related to bank lending risk , and I would like to analyse the impact of relevant regulations on credit risk in different countries using a dataset on bank lending. Where can I ...
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Has anyone tried credit metrics using monte carlo in excel? [closed]
Has anyone tried credit metrics in excel , if so could you please link your spreadsheet/or link some resources that might help, thanks.
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Why do some TIPS bonds have credit spread < 0 [duplicate]
If we look at the yield spreads on Bloomberg of some TIPS bonds, we see they have credit spread < 0 (i.e. their yield is even lower than their benchmark treasury bonds)
Why is that the case. ...
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Why investment grade floor is set at Baa3/BBB-?
I have studied methodologies for Moody's and S&P ratings but haven't seen any instance where the respective agencies have mentioned the reason choosing Baa3/BBB- as the dividing line between ...
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Credit rating of an Issuer
When to analysing historical movement of credit rating, sometime credit rating is put as Non-rated or NR.
Is there any industry acceptance definition of ...
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Bond value as a function of spread change and duration/maturity
I am trying to calculate the change of value in a universe of bonds given a series of shocks to the credit spread of each bond. As a constraint, the initial dataset only contains the spread change for ...
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Credit risk migration
I got an excel file containing the credit risk data regarding ID, credit score, PD, LGD, original exposure, EAD, RWA, Expected loss, and Required capital. Question: The user has a number of ...
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Can a client have different credits on different buckets under IFRS9?
Suppose that client X has two credits, say $c1$ and $c2$: $c1$ is without delay, $c2$ is 50 days past due. By IFRS9, it happens that $c1$ must be in bucket one, and $c2$ must be in bucket two. Both of ...
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Help with simple derivation of probability of credit default
I'm going over a chapter in Hull's Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives and am stuck on how the probability of default is derived. Here's the image of the derivation.
I can follow all of it except ...
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Credit rating of a company
Typically there are quite a few providers of Credit rating for different companies e.g. Crisil, S&P, Moodys etc. However I observed that, as part of risk management, different banks also derive ...
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Relationship between risk free rate and credit spread in the Merton model
Based on Merton model of credit risk, I understand that investing in a risky debt is the same as buying a treasury bond and writing a put option on the firm's assets with a strike price equal to the ...
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Credit loss data (discounted)
I am looking into a data provider which provide the credit loss data from different banks - https://globalcreditdata.org/interactive-dashboard/
They also provide ...
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Simple Poisson monte carlo question
I have what I think is a simple Monte Carlo question that I need some help with. I am building a credit model that requires repetitive draws from a Poisson distribution, where these Poisson ...
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PD estimation methods
Could someone explain me or suggest a good reference how to categorize the PD calculation methods without going to deep in the details?
I learned on riskmanagement lecture, that there are three major ...
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How does the bank uses the provisioning amount and RWA based capital adequacy
As I am new to the banking risk management, I need some clarity on the concept of provisioning and capital adequacy with respect to banking industry.
As the banks make loans and some of these loans ...
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Time series data for probability of default (or credit ratings)
I'm currently investigating potential correlations among ESG ratings and credit ratings; more in particular, i'm trying to understand whether such correlation evolved during the last 20 (?) years, and ...
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seek clarification about PFE
I'm a software developer want to know a little about quant basics. My undserstanding of PFE is that a PFE of a trade at a future time point is commonly defined by taking the average of the highest (or ...
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Calculation of Total Credit Risk Capital % but seeing lower capital percentage for higher risk band. Is there any correction required?
I am trying to calculate the Total Credit Risk capital % for my learning purpose as given below. Assuming adding 1 single loan with different pds.
i have noticed one point in the table and have two ...
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pooling equilibrium
I was hoping for some help on how to answer a question about pooling equilibrium. Suppose a bank wants to give loans of 1 million dollars to people, but it cannot differentiate between high risk ...
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How do I estimate the factor sensitivity in a Vasicek Single Factor Model?
I understand the formula of an asset return for an obligor i is given by the following:
$$A_i = \sqrt{w_i}*Z + \sqrt{1-w_i}*\epsilon_i
$$
My question is - How do I calculate $w_i$? I have the PD, LGD ...
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How to account for the credit spread ( e.g. LIBOR + 2%) when using the Multicurve Methodology in valuing a Swap
When valuing an Interest rate swap, counterparties will typically issue the contract at a Libor + credit premium, e.g. Libor +2%. When valuing a swap, we require a LIBOR forward curve and Discounting ...
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Mapping bank credit score to PD
I currently work in a bank so I do have some of the required information that is my bank (internal) assigned credit score and the calculated probability of default for every company.
My question is ...
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Risky PV01 Vs CS01 for Credit Derivatives
Can someone please tell if there is a difference between CS01 and Risky PV01 of CDX or CDX Index Options ? Someone told me that they are technically equal only when Par Spread is equal to Standard ...
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Does credit default swaps have interest rate duration and credit duration?
Will a CDS have interest rate duration and credit duration?
It does seem likely that the value of the CDS would depend on the underlying interest rate, or the spread. But when I try to Google this I ...
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Default rate short majurity
What is the best way of measuring default rates for a portfolio which contains mostly loans which are either 30, 60 or 90 days term?
Normally I use the following methodology
Look at all loans which ...
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A list of the 01's in the corporate bonds
I have frequently heard terms like DV01, CV01, PV01. Where can I get a list of these glossaries to study? I am not looking for a detailed explanation, just really a list.. Once I have the list, I can ...
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Liquid products/indexes to hedge/price a corporate bonds portfolio
Generally, for a corporate bonds portfolio, what are the common risk factors that's hedge-able through some liquid products?
I know we can hedge the rate-risk through treasuries. We have some ETFs for ...
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CDS spread changes with its recovery rate
Not sure if my question makes any sense because I'm pretty new to the credit market.
Suppose I have a 5Y CDS spread which is quoted as 100 bps with 40% recovery rate.
So, if I want to estimate another ...
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Dependence between Credit Default Risk and Credit Spread Risk
I am trying to understand the difference and similarities between Credit Spread Risk and Credit Default Risk.
Here is brief (and not all too precise) definition.
Credit Spread Risk: Losses due to ...
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Why the increase of presumed recovery rate will increase the implied default probability?
From Hull's paper, the implied default probability (lambda) = credit spread/(1-recovery rate).
Therefore, we can infer that, as the recovery rate goes up, the lambda will also go up. Why is that? I ...
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Why do we need to split market and default information into 2 separate filtrations?
The reduced-form approach to modelling derivatives with credit risk normally assumes the existence of two filtrations:
A market filtration $(\mathscr{F}_t)_{t\geq0}$ carrying market and economic ...
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Variables for retail lending of bank
Typically to estimate the credit-worthiness of customers in retain bank lending, banks generally consider many demographic and socio-economic variables most importantly -
Age, number of dependents, ...
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Why do bank stock returns increase from increased credit risk?
As part of my bachelor's thesis, I am running the following regression on daily bank excess returns:
(r-rf)=Beta * Market excess return + Beta * Level(5Y)+ Beta * Credit Risk + error
Level(5Y) is the ...
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Regression analysis in finance - book recommendation
Hey I am looking for a good book about regression analysis in finance (e.g. credit risk). Could you recommend something? It would be great if this book will be connected with some programmic language ...
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Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) for the probability of default of corporates
I work in the financial industry and we want to implement an internal rating model for our clients (think corporates large or mid , banks etc. some listed on an exchange some others not).
We want to ...
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Observed rating migration matrix to derive the generator matrix
I am doing some reading on the derivation of credit rating migration/transition matrices and probability of default term structures. I understand that a homogeneous Markov chain can be either discrete-...
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Calculation of the Probability of Default
I am reading a book from Tiziano Bellini namely IFRS 9 and CECL Credit Risk Modelling and Validation, to understand the default probability calculation (link : https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/...
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Reduced form of credit model
The price for a simple credit bond, where a credit event is modeled as the first jump of a Poisson process $N$, with stochastic hazard rate $\lambda$, is given by
$$P_t = P(t, \lambda, N)$$
such that,
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Measuring stressed credit risk
What are good ways of measuring stressed credit risk specifically?
I know usually we just "stress" all market conditions, but are there credit-risk specific things we can do?
Or is it just a ...
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Default Probability estimation
Can you please provide some workout references on how to estimate the Default probability for Wholesale portfolio?
How does it defer from Retail portfolio case?
I ...
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Exposure At Default: Calculating the present value
In this numerical example, I can't figure out with which numbers (when using the PV formula) to calculate exposure at default (EAD) as shown in the table.
The EAD is the value of the discounted future ...
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IFRS9 - Lifetime Expected Credit Losses (ECL) Probability of Default (PD) - how do they get distributed in quarters?
Let's assume we calculate a Lifetime ECL of 5 years. How do we then distribute the expected losses in each of the following 20 quarters? Do we just divide the lifetime ECL by 20 and calculate the ...
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Model Validation Aggregation Documentation (Binomial, Hosmer-Lemeshow, Tolerance) - Credit Risk et cetera
I came across some document that says for a PD (Probability of Default) model in order to assess its accuracy you need to first look at the Binomial Test, then the Hosmer-Lemeshow Chi-square test, ...
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Probability of Default calculation
I am looking for some good resources with handful of workout examples, on the modelling of the Probability of Default under IFRS9...
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Estimation of Default Probability using Merton's model
There is an explanation of Risk Neutral Default Probability using a Firm's Equity price here - https://www.mathworks.com/help/risk/default-probability-using-the-...
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Estimation of Default Probability from Bond
Typically the formula to calculate the default probability from corporate Bond looks like
$\frac{S}{1-R}$
where $S$ is the ...
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Bond prices and probability of default
We learn in Finance 101 that the price of a bond is the present value of future cash flows. There is no mention of default risk. Still, bond prices move each day, without a change in the payment ...
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Books on loans (car, house, etc...), pricing and securitization?
I'm looking for a good book on credit analysis, lending, car loans, house loans, etc... I would like to understand the theory and practice behind it. Most books I google for are for the consumer like ...
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„Backtesting“ of a Credit VaR Model
Coming from a market risk background, I am wondering how to validate / backtest a credit risk model in practice. Here, I am specifically not asking about the PD/migration validation, but about the ...
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ETF Arbitrage and Tracking: Impacts of a debt crisis
I am interested in the impacts of a debt crisis on the tracking ability of an ETF.
In particular I have read that the market makers for ETFs often take on large short-term loans in order to create or ...
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