Questions tagged [credit-risk]
The risk that a borrower will default on any type of debt by failing to make required payments and that the corresponding lender suffers a loss.
134
questions
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Mapping FICO score to PD or Moody's Rating
I need to analyze the risk of a fund with various types of credits, such as consumer, student, and real estate. These categories all have FICO credit scores.
I need to assess the risk of the fund ...
2
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0answers
31 views
To price Municipal Bonds and risks I want to know the percent of unfunded pension liabilities ($3.8T) to total state and local gov liabilities
Unfunded pension liabilities keep growing and this seems alarming to both pension holders but also Municipal Bond holders.
I would like to know how large this problem is to better price Munis and ...
3
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0answers
49 views
Using transaction data to predict default of the customer
I am trying to build a prediction model that utilize the huge transaction database of all the customers of a bank. My dataset currently looks like this:
...
0
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0answers
27 views
Deriving the risk-neutral pricing formula for the 2-state credit risk model
I am reading Interest rate models by Cairns—specifically the chapter on credit risk. Cairns introduces first the simple 2-state continuous time Markov model for credit risk—with the two states being "...
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36 views
Normal default probability vs forward default probability/conditional default
is the diagram correct in calculating foward PD(conditional default) ? Or should the formula be
Probability of default = probability of survival x forward PD
Which of this is equal to marginal PD(...
1
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1answer
52 views
Relation between low rate and credit risk
In the Handbook of Fixed Incomes Securities, there is this part:
The lower federal funds rate prods banks to be less aggressive in
issuing deposits, such as certificates of deposits (CDs). Their ...
1
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1answer
47 views
Aggregation of $\rho$ and $p$ for a vasicek model
I'm currently facing the problem of how properly (analytically) adjust the parameters of an aggregated Vasicek (2002) loss distribution so that it has the same expected loss and 99% quantile as the ...
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2answers
63 views
default protection seller long or short credit risk?
A default protection seller is long/short credit risk?my guess it is short the credit risk, anyone can help clarify?
4
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1answer
152 views
Dominating credit risk modeling approaches for capital calculation in banks
In Basel/CRR (capital requirement regulation) there are various approaches for the estimation of capital requirements.
For corporate exposures there is the Foundations IRB approach (F-IRBA, own ...
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0answers
42 views
What models are used to determine credit limits for credit cards?
I have an upcoming job interview as a statistician for a firm that sets credit card limits. In preparation, I'm trying to learn how credit limits are determined.
I know that there are vast data-sets ...
0
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0answers
41 views
Equivalent of recovery rate
I'm trying to understand the functioning of "recovery of face-value" approach.
Let $V_t$ the fair-value, that is the price that the holder of a defaultable bond must pay for hedging of default of ...
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0answers
46 views
Extracting Risk Neutral Default Probabilities using Option Adjusted Bond Prices
I am currently in a project trying to quantify default risk premia for US Corporate Bonds. The data I have consists of bond prices, and other information (i.e. YTM, OAS, Effective Duration, Maturity ...
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1answer
53 views
PD for ECL modelling
I am trying to understand the interrelations between the marginal, cumulative and conditional PDs (Probabilities of Default) when modelling ECLs (Expected Credit Losses). My current understanding is ...
0
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1answer
33 views
Effects of hedges on counterparty exposure used for RWA computation
In the context of Basel 2 requirements (BCBS128), how hedges affect the computation of counterparty exposure used in RWA calculation? Specifically, do hedges reduce the amount of exposure (EAD)?
...
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65 views
What are the go-to textbooks for advanced quant finance topics? [duplicate]
Credit risk,
interest rate modelling,
volatility modelling.
What are the go-to books for each of these 3 topics in quant finance? The target audience should be someone who understands the basics of ...
0
votes
1answer
68 views
When a bank enters a swap with a counterparty, when does it decide to use a OIS curve as its CSA Term, versus a counterparty specific “CSA Curve”?
What determines whether a swap should be discounted against a standard OIS curve VS a 'custom' CSA curve specific to the swap's counterparty? (such custom curves are marked as spreads to some base ...
2
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1answer
132 views
Calculating PD of commercial bank loan
I have two main options to calculate PD of a loan in a commercial bank; with and without machine learning.
On one hand, there are traditional methods such as Merton or KVM. On the other hand, I could ...
1
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1answer
80 views
rationale for maturity adjustment formula in basel IRB formula
For capital requirement, rwa is computed as a product of terms including a K (unexpected losses).
(As shown is the summary from wikipedia :
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_IRB
)
K is ...
1
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2answers
116 views
Financial Statement Analysis [closed]
So i have just completed a beginners course on understanding financial statements. As part of the final assignment, we are supposed to pick a real company, study its financial statements and conclude ...
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0answers
34 views
Connections between logistic regression, information value and Kullback-Leibler
I am new to credit risk modeling, my background is in mathematics and physics, so I am looking to justify some commonly used techniques from first principles.
Suppose that we are interested in ...
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0answers
36 views
Exposure at Default (EAD) models with and without the Credit Conversion Factor (CCF)
Exposure at Default (EAD) models with and without the Credit Conversion Factor (CCF). What are the pros and the cons of each, and which one should use a small commercial bank?
1
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1answer
44 views
A quick and dirty loss distribution and Credit VaR
I need to create a loss distribution for a credit portfolio as the first steps to estimate the portfolio Credit VaR.
I have historical monthly account snapshots (payment history) of all accounts ...
0
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1answer
35 views
Calculate the implied loss rate on a loan, given the interest charged
My bank has a retail credit portfolio of 100 million in loans. I know the payment history,balance history of all these loans since inception.
Are there any tools to calculate an expected loss, a loss ...
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0answers
81 views
Need to solve the stochastic differential equation of Vasicek Model
How to solve the stochastic differential equation of the Vasicek model for the analysis of credit risk? I search in the article "The Distribution of loan portfolio value" (Vasicek) but he doesn't ...
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0answers
43 views
Gaussian copula: contract price
The hazard rates for A and B are 1% and 2% respectively. A contract pays you $1 if A defaults earlier than B. What is the correlation that minimizes the price of the contract?
I have not studied the ...
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0answers
119 views
Spread Duration weighted OAS vs. Mkt Cap Weighted?
I am curious what the differences might be in rolling up OAS spreads across a portfolio by duration weighting vs. mkt cap weighting.
@Alex yes I meant S.D. weighted not Duration weighted
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1answer
363 views
Deriving default probability from CDS spread via stripping
I am currently trying to derive the cumulative probability of default from a CDS spread where the LGD is 30% and there are quarterly premiums including the accrued premium.
...
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2answers
168 views
How does one make money from CVA (Credit Valuation Adjustment)?
I am new to Quantitative Finance but have been doing a lot of reading on Counterparty Credit Risk.
I understand the definition of CVA being:
"the difference between the risk-free portfolio value ...
2
votes
1answer
69 views
How to measure effectiveness of CDS hedging
In a fixed income emerging markets portfolio investing in Sovereign and Corporates, CDS on governement bonds are used for hedging credit risk.
To be clear CDS are used to hedge both the exposure of ...
2
votes
2answers
43 views
Are Credit Default Swaps used by B2B Service providers or Vendors?
I understand CDS's are often employed in trading strategies between institutions - That is well publicized. What isn't as publicized is how other customers might look to use a CDS.
I work in an ...
1
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1answer
61 views
Proper maturity in the Merton's model
I am working on a credit rating project using Merton's model. Basically it adopts Black-Scholes that equity value can be viewed as a call option with a strike price of face value of debts. Since the ...
2
votes
1answer
156 views
Intuition behind one factor Merton model for probability of default?
Let
$Z$ be a standard normal rv,
$Y_i$ be iid standard normals for $i = 1,\dots, n$,
satisfying the relationship
$$
X_i = \sqrt{p} Z + \sqrt{1-p} Y_i
$$
In the one factor Merton model, we say that ...
2
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0answers
217 views
Duration adjusted credit spread
I am currently reading two policy papers that construct, for a fixed-income bond, a following credit spread:
This one, p. 12, computes the yield to maturity minus the Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rate ...
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25 views
Collateralized Bond Obligations History
Collateralized Bond Obligations (CBOs) were a form of CDOs that were more popular in the early 2000s. I am looking for:
Historical loss rates on their tranches (if available)
Whether historically any ...
2
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0answers
56 views
Pricing default risk in cryptos
I'm looking to figure out how to price "insurance" against a counter-party defaulting in an OTC cryptocurrency transaction. I think the first measure would be to calculate VaR? I'm planning on ...
1
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1answer
162 views
Credit Spreads and Relative Value : floating vs fixed bond
I would like to study if, in these weeks during the italian credit crisis, floating govy bonds were more resilient than fixed govy bonds.
For each floating issue (CCTS) I chose the fixed issue with ...
2
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0answers
32 views
Any Suggestion for Credit Risk Measure for Banking Industry in Turkey?
I need a measure that will proxy for overall credit risk in the banking industry of Turkey. The literature offers LIBOR-OIS spread and Moody's Baa-Aaa spread as strong candidates. However, these ...
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1answer
105 views
Calculating the long run average default rate when the portfolio changes during the year
The Basel rules prescribe to calculate a long run average default rate (LADR). It is stated that his rate should be calculated as the average of yearly default rates.
A first idea what be:
look at ...
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0answers
247 views
How Machine Learning model addresses adverse action concerns -credit scorcard?
How to find the variables involved in the decision to report adverse action when the origination scorecard is developed using Machine Learning - XGBOOST with monotonic constraints (80 variables)
...
2
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1answer
84 views
Implied credit spread convertible bonds with negative yield
I’m trying to understand what happens to the credit spread of a convertible bond when yields of the convertible are negative. I’ve heard there is an implied credit spread as spreads can’t really be ...
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0answers
41 views
How are Risk indices linked to Physical Trading returns?
Ref to my previous question here:
Physical trading spot transaction analysis-Quantified
I have been able to narrow down my aim to defining a physical trading strategy P&L. My question is, how ...
2
votes
1answer
461 views
credit risk - marginal default probability
I have been working on an assignment trying to calculate marginal/conditional probability of default. Using a logistic regression framework, I was able to compute the 12-month unconditional PD for ...
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0answers
58 views
How can I find what Loss Given Default to use
I want to come up with the appropriate loss given default for a commodity derivative in my CVA calculation. would anyone know where I can find this information?
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0answers
90 views
Implementing Pykthin Multi-factor adjustment
I've made a mistake in the implementation of Pykthin Multi-factor adjustment which I'm fairly certain comes from me not understanding the model completely. The model was developed to drastically ...
1
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1answer
803 views
Mark to Market of a CDS Contract and Risky Annuities
From JP Morgan's Trading Credit Curves 1 and we have that:
The MTM of a CDS contract is (for a sell of protection) therefore:
$$\text{MTM} = (S_{\text{Initial}}-S_{\text{Current}}).\text{...
0
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1answer
45 views
Heuristic (or algorithm) for calculating a risk premium, given a probability of default and a “minimum” profit margin (expressed as a yield)
Assuming that I have means of determining and calculating the following metrics:
Risk (i.e. probability*) of a default to a particular borrower as P
Profit margin of X%
The profit margin is taken to ...
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0answers
50 views
Quantitative and regulatory aspects of portfolio integration in IRB credit portfolios
Say bank A buys a credit portfolio "B" (e.g. corporate loans or retail mortgage, ...) from bank B.
Bank A fulfills the the requirements of CRR (capital requirement regulation) for its existing ...
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2answers
350 views
Merton model for Probability of Default - What liabilities?
In Merton structural model for credit risk (74), the company's Assets and Liabilities are used to imply the default probability of the firm.
At the end, we don't need to know the assets value, and ...
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0answers
27 views
Why do supervisors deem qualified revolving retail less risky than other retail exposure
I would like to gain more understanding of the economic background of some Basel formulas.
In the Basel guidelines in retail credit risk we have a risk weight function that depends on the correlation ...
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0answers
23 views
Modelling Specialised Lending deals
This question by itself is less a quant question but it has impact on the quantitative model to use.
In 2006 CEBS gudilines we find a definition similar to this:
Specialised Lending (SP) is a sub-...
