Questions tagged [credit-risk]

The risk that a borrower will default on any type of debt by failing to make required payments and that the corresponding lender suffers a loss.

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Quantitative and regulatory aspects of portfolio integration in IRB credit portfolios

Say bank A buys a credit portfolio "B" (e.g. corporate loans or retail mortgage, ...) from bank B. Bank A fulfills the the requirements of CRR (capital requirement regulation) for its existing ...
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credit risk - How to calculate the probability of default (private companies)?

Part of my master thesis I am working with a company. I have the project to use their financial database with all the financials data (7 years) of approximately 3’000 companies. They have their own ...
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70 views

Using transaction data to predict default of the customer

I am trying to build a prediction model that utilize the huge transaction database of all the customers of a bank. My dataset currently looks like this: ...
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38 views

conferences for credit portfolio managers

What are worth conferences for credit portfolio managers? I appreciate your recommendations! PS:I am aware that this question is not the typical quant.SE question, BUT I couldn`t find reliable ...
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154 views

Pre- Versus post-2008 Crisis Rates Modeling

Modeling for interest rate derivatives (such as bermudan swaptions) is said to have undergone significant changes since the crisis. Prior to the crisis, counterparty default risk was often ignored, ...
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137 views

Black-Cox yield spreads

From Lando (2004)* I am trying to replicate the following figure (Section 2.6 Default Barriers: The Black-Cox Setup): The spreads are computed as follows: $$s(T) = \frac{1}{T}\ln\frac{D}{B_0}-r$$ ...
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Where could I find code to compute Potential Future Exposure

Ideally code in SAS, R, Python or Matlab for calculations involving counterparties holding positions in energy markets on multiple price curves, with a Monte-Carlo methodology or a simpified ...
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264 views

PD calibration using Bayes formula

When calculating ECLs for loans under IFRS 9, one of the requirements is that the PD estimates have to be Point-in-time ($PD_{PIT}$) rather than through-the-cycle ($PD_{TTC}$).The setting is as ...
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37 views

To price Municipal Bonds and risks I want to know the percent of unfunded pension liabilities ($3.8T) to total state and local gov liabilities

Unfunded pension liabilities keep growing and this seems alarming to both pension holders but also Municipal Bond holders. I would like to know how large this problem is to better price Munis and ...
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318 views

Need to solve the stochastic differential equation of Vasicek Model

How to solve the stochastic differential equation of the Vasicek model for the analysis of credit risk? I search in the article "The Distribution of loan portfolio value" (Vasicek) but he doesn't ...
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328 views

Duration adjusted credit spread

I am currently reading two policy papers that construct, for a fixed-income bond, a following credit spread: This one, p. 12, computes the yield to maturity minus the Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rate ...
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57 views

Pricing default risk in cryptos

I'm looking to figure out how to price "insurance" against a counter-party defaulting in an OTC cryptocurrency transaction. I think the first measure would be to calculate VaR? I'm planning on ...
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36 views

Any Suggestion for Credit Risk Measure for Banking Industry in Turkey?

I need a measure that will proxy for overall credit risk in the banking industry of Turkey. The literature offers LIBOR-OIS spread and Moody's Baa-Aaa spread as strong candidates. However, these ...
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288 views

CDO Implied correlation: what for?

Reading about CDOs and calibration to find the implied correlation, I came up with the following question. Suppose we are pricing a CDO over a pool of $N=125$ names, using the usual Gaussian copula ...
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196 views

Derivative and Credit Risk Modelling

I am looking at acquiring a system to help with multi-instrument modelling. Across the spectrum Equity/FI/Swap/Repo/CDS/FxSwap/Forward/Future/etc for vanilla and more complex derivatives. The modeling ...
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361 views

Bayesian analysis in R: Probability of default, low default portfolios

I want to apply the knowledge of this paper (Bayesian estimation of probabilities of default for low default portfolios, by Dirk Tasche) in R, but I can't find the right bayesian package and functions ...
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76 views

How are CDS prices calculated for financial institutions?

If you need to estimate the fair price of a credit default swap on a financial institution, can it be done? Typical structural models tend to break down for the complex debt and asset characteristics ...
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78 views

Modelling the Cost of Risk

I would like to read something about the cost of risk. Could anyone recommend some reference about how it is calculated or modelled?
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119 views

Future value of the debt under Merton model

The author Malz states the future value of the firm's debt under the Merton model can be found from: $$ D_{t} = D - \max(D - A_{t} , 0) $$ (where $D$ is the par value of the debt, $A_{t}$ is the ...
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168 views

Bayesian logit model in Psychometric or Behavioural Testing for Credit Scoring in Developing Countries

A lot of parameters in one title, I know. So there's credit scoring but not using credit history. Then there's using a Bayesian logit model. Then there's doing so in a developing country such as Haiti ...
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Obtaining the default probability and recovery rate for each credit rating?

I have the following questions for obtaining the credit rating: Given that I have cumulative default probability of each credit rating from Global Corporate Average Cumulative Default Rates (1982-...
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30 views

Estimation of Default Probability from Bond

Typically the formula to calculate the default probability from corporate Bond looks like $\frac{S}{1-R}$ where $S$ is the ...
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36 views

Books on loans (car, house, etc…), pricing and securitization?

I'm looking for a good book on credit analysis, lending, car loans, house loans, etc... I would like to understand the theory and practice behind it. Most books I google for are for the consumer like ...
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37 views

„Backtesting“ of a Credit VaR Model

Coming from a market risk background, I am wondering how to validate / backtest a credit risk model in practice. Here, I am specifically not asking about the PD/migration validation, but about the ...
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Crisis Impact on Credits by Type

I need to know what types of credits are more commonly harmed by times of financial crisis, for intance, during the 2008 crisis which type of credits where the frist to default and which the last. ...
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CVA for a portfolio of long and short options

I am looking to estimate the CVA/DVA for a portfolio of options. For simplicity sake, let's assume there are two FX options in the portfolio, one long and one short. Both options have the same ...
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144 views

PDs for negative credit spreads

My question is about credit spreads and the corresponding probability of default (PD). One of the most simple relations between credit spreads and PDs is (see e.g. ch7 in Malz(2011)) $$ PD \approx \...
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78 views

Quant valuation of a credit card debt (or flexible loan)

What would you say is the generally accepted quantitative method of valuing an individual credit card, or flexible loan? Is the method very changeable if that were a pool of such loans? Suppose the ...
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110 views

Mapping FICO score to PD or Moody's Rating

I need to analyze the risk of a fund with various types of credits, such as consumer, student, and real estate. These categories all have FICO credit scores. I need to assess the risk of the fund ...
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142 views

Normal default probability vs forward default probability/conditional default

is the diagram correct in calculating foward PD(conditional default) ? Or should the formula be Probability of default = probability of survival x forward PD Which of this is equal to marginal PD(...
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Extracting Risk Neutral Default Probabilities using Option Adjusted Bond Prices

I am currently in a project trying to quantify default risk premia for US Corporate Bonds. The data I have consists of bond prices, and other information (i.e. YTM, OAS, Effective Duration, Maturity ...
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77 views

Exposure at Default (EAD) models with and without the Credit Conversion Factor (CCF)

Exposure at Default (EAD) models with and without the Credit Conversion Factor (CCF). What are the pros and the cons of each, and which one should use a small commercial bank?
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Gaussian copula: contract price

The hazard rates for A and B are 1% and 2% respectively. A contract pays you $1 if A defaults earlier than B. What is the correlation that minimizes the price of the contract? I have not studied the ...
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146 views

Spread Duration weighted OAS vs. Mkt Cap Weighted?

I am curious what the differences might be in rolling up OAS spreads across a portfolio by duration weighting vs. mkt cap weighting. @Alex yes I meant S.D. weighted not Duration weighted
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How are Risk indices linked to Physical Trading returns?

Ref to my previous question here: Physical trading spot transaction analysis-Quantified I have been able to narrow down my aim to defining a physical trading strategy P&L. My question is, how ...
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68 views

How can I find what Loss Given Default to use

I want to come up with the appropriate loss given default for a commodity derivative in my CVA calculation. would anyone know where I can find this information?
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Why do supervisors deem qualified revolving retail less risky than other retail exposure

I would like to gain more understanding of the economic background of some Basel formulas. In the Basel guidelines in retail credit risk we have a risk weight function that depends on the correlation ...
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23 views

Modelling Specialised Lending deals

This question by itself is less a quant question but it has impact on the quantitative model to use. In 2006 CEBS gudilines we find a definition similar to this: Specialised Lending (SP) is a sub-...
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593 views

What is credit risk in a private equity portfolio?

If I am a private equity fund manager (e.g I have a portfolio consisting of direct private equity investments), what does credit risk mean in a practical sense for me? The usual issuer credit risk ...
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236 views

Monte Carlo simulation implementation

This question relates to credit portfolio analysis. I was asked by my teacher the following question : Why would a bank use MC simulation in the implementation of the covariance model (a bottom-up ...
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50 views

Using Put Volatilities to Estimate Firm Leverage/Credit Risk

This paper by Hull, Nelken and White uses implied volatilities in structural credit risk models to back out a market-implied leverage ratio. CreditGrades has a similar implementation using equity ...
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Valuation Models for Bank Credit Default

What approaches exist for calculating a fair price for a credit default swap for a bank? Most of the traditional valuation models are geared towards industrial firms. Are there any theoretical ...
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137 views

Create Markets Bubble Indicator

I am trying to replicate a Bubble Indicator described here. The indicator is strictly based on calculating the regularity of price behavior to determine herding in multiple time frames. I tried the ...
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1answer
10k views

Discount Curve Vs Forward Curve

This could be a trivial question, but would I like to clear the concepts. Our firm started sourcing the Murex Trades which has all the variety of Derivative products. I noticed that the Curve ...
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Why does an interest rate derivative being in- or out-of-the-money influence the optionality of a multi-currency CSA?

Background Consider a derivative contract with multiple cash CSAs, with the ability of the counterparty posting the collateral to switch to the cheapest-to-deliver (CTD) CSA. Of the possible paths of ...
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Zero Volatility Curve (Z-spread) and Non-zero Volatility Curve (OAS)

When looking at credit risk for bonds, the measures that are often used -- depending on your purpose -- are the z-spread or the OAS spread. By definition, z-spread is the parallel shift from the zero-...
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Robust way to calculate credit risky PV from CDS spreads

Suppose the credit risky present value of some future cash flow at time $T$ is to be calculated, and there are observable (market standard) CDS spreads on the obligor. Now, I think that one could ...
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39 views

Multi-period Basel/Vasicek formula

I need to apply Basel/Vasicek formula to a 20-years horizon, both from a 20-years cumulative perspective and year-on-year basis. Please find below the formula of the Basel Capital (ie. unexpected loss)...
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How does rate expectations, rate volatility,firm value, and maturity effect credit risk?

I'm trying to understand several credit risk graphs seen in the FRM curriculum. The way the book goes it's hard to see how it ties together, so I'd like to try and do that now. The pictures are taken ...
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1answer
100 views

Bayesian analysis in R for low default portfolios

I want to apply the knowledge of this paper (Bayesian estimation of probabilities of default for low default portfolios, by Dirk Tasche) in R, but I can't find the right bayesian package and functions ...