Questions tagged [credit-risk]

The risk that a borrower will default on any type of debt by failing to make required payments and that the corresponding lender suffers a loss.

Filter by
Sorted by
Tagged with
2
votes
1answer
104 views

Implied credit spread convertible bonds with negative yield

I’m trying to understand what happens to the credit spread of a convertible bond when yields of the convertible are negative. I’ve heard there is an implied credit spread as spreads can’t really be ...
1
vote
0answers
41 views

How are Risk indices linked to Physical Trading returns?

Ref to my previous question here: Physical trading spot transaction analysis-Quantified I have been able to narrow down my aim to defining a physical trading strategy P&L. My question is, how ...
2
votes
1answer
559 views

credit risk - marginal default probability

I have been working on an assignment trying to calculate marginal/conditional probability of default. Using a logistic regression framework, I was able to compute the 12-month unconditional PD for ...
1
vote
0answers
61 views

How can I find what Loss Given Default to use

I want to come up with the appropriate loss given default for a commodity derivative in my CVA calculation. would anyone know where I can find this information?
1
vote
0answers
108 views

Implementing Pykthin Multi-factor adjustment

I've made a mistake in the implementation of Pykthin Multi-factor adjustment which I'm fairly certain comes from me not understanding the model completely. The model was developed to drastically ...
1
vote
1answer
980 views

Mark to Market of a CDS Contract and Risky Annuities

From JP Morgan's Trading Credit Curves 1 and we have that: The MTM of a CDS contract is (for a sell of protection) therefore: $$\text{MTM} = (S_{\text{Initial}}-S_{\text{Current}}).\text{...
0
votes
1answer
46 views

Heuristic (or algorithm) for calculating a risk premium, given a probability of default and a “minimum” profit margin (expressed as a yield)

Assuming that I have means of determining and calculating the following metrics: Risk (i.e. probability*) of a default to a particular borrower as P Profit margin of X% The profit margin is taken to ...
6
votes
0answers
53 views

Quantitative and regulatory aspects of portfolio integration in IRB credit portfolios

Say bank A buys a credit portfolio "B" (e.g. corporate loans or retail mortgage, ...) from bank B. Bank A fulfills the the requirements of CRR (capital requirement regulation) for its existing ...
0
votes
2answers
415 views

Merton model for Probability of Default - What liabilities?

In Merton structural model for credit risk (74), the company's Assets and Liabilities are used to imply the default probability of the firm. At the end, we don't need to know the assets value, and ...
1
vote
0answers
27 views

Why do supervisors deem qualified revolving retail less risky than other retail exposure

I would like to gain more understanding of the economic background of some Basel formulas. In the Basel guidelines in retail credit risk we have a risk weight function that depends on the correlation ...
1
vote
0answers
23 views

Modelling Specialised Lending deals

This question by itself is less a quant question but it has impact on the quantitative model to use. In 2006 CEBS gudilines we find a definition similar to this: Specialised Lending (SP) is a sub-...
1
vote
0answers
500 views

What is credit risk in a private equity portfolio?

If I am a private equity fund manager (e.g I have a portfolio consisting of direct private equity investments), what does credit risk mean in a practical sense for me? The usual issuer credit risk ...
3
votes
1answer
114 views

Simplifying an expectation function of default time and rates

I have the following expectation to calculate : $$ \mathbf{E}\left[ e^{\int_{t_0}^{\tau} r_s ds} \mathbf{1}_{\{\tau < T\}}\right] $$ More precisely, I want to show that : $$ \mathbf{E}\left[ e^{\...
2
votes
2answers
134 views

Choosing a proxy for asset credit event correlations

I'm interested in modeling the joint likelihood for rating changes and default events across a portfolio of bonds. To estimate the correlation between these assets, I can use a third-party factor ...
0
votes
1answer
8k views

Discount Curve Vs Forward Curve

This could be a trivial question, but would I like to clear the concepts. Our firm started sourcing the Murex Trades which has all the variety of Derivative products. I noticed that the Curve ...
-1
votes
1answer
344 views

Asset Swap Spreads

This is John Hull's book Options, Futures and Other Derivatives 9th Page 549 The process of calculating the ...
1
vote
1answer
3k views

How to calculate credit spread from rating

I've been trying to calculate the credit spread of a financial institution with a Fitch rate of A. By using the transition matrix (https://www.fitchratings.com/web_content/nrsro/nav/NRSRO_Exhibit-1....
2
votes
1answer
363 views

CDS Vs Credit Risk premium over risk free

Credit default swap is the premium you pay to protect against a credit default from your borrower. Would it be equal to the credit premium over risk free i.e. bond yield - risk free of comparable ...
1
vote
2answers
70 views

Problem of PD estimation [closed]

Why is small number of defaults is a problem in case of PD estimation? What are the consequences? Can you recommend notes, books, etc about the topic?
0
votes
2answers
388 views

What Is the correct discounting, risky or riskless?

Suppose I can sell a European put in two ways: 1) in a mark to market collateralized market with collateral rate equal to the riskless rate $r$; 2) in a noncollaterized market where I get the payment ...
5
votes
1answer
532 views

How to compute the CVA on a swap with SPV?

If we have a swap with a bank and Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV), and the swap is un-collateralized , how do we estimate Credit Value Adjustment on the swap? I will be able to get the Expected ...
1
vote
1answer
134 views

Integrating Credit and Market VaR

For a portfolio of fixed income, is there a framework or model for providing a VaR-type estimate that takes into account not only market risk factors, but also the loss associated with the probability ...
4
votes
2answers
147 views

What are the quantitative approaches to quantify credit risk for Private Equity and Real Estate?

What are some quantitative approaches to estimating credit risk for investments that aren't publicly traded, such as private equity and direct real estate? I'm particularly interested in estimating ...
1
vote
1answer
615 views

Interest Rate Swap Pre-Settlement Risk

I am kind of confused about how to approach the following question. Suppose I enter into a interest rate swap (IRS) with counter party C. Details are : Fixed rate rate receiver, floating rate payer :...
2
votes
0answers
244 views

CDO Implied correlation: what for?

Reading about CDOs and calibration to find the implied correlation, I came up with the following question. Suppose we are pricing a CDO over a pool of $N=125$ names, using the usual Gaussian copula ...
2
votes
0answers
185 views

Derivative and Credit Risk Modelling

I am looking at acquiring a system to help with multi-instrument modelling. Across the spectrum Equity/FI/Swap/Repo/CDS/FxSwap/Forward/Future/etc for vanilla and more complex derivatives. The modeling ...
7
votes
6answers
16k views

What's the difference between credit risk and counterparty credit risk?

As the title reads, what is the difference between credit risk and counterparty credit risk? What are the key differences?
2
votes
4answers
622 views

Is exposure at default the same thing as the limit amount on a loan?

In Credit Risk terminology, is the Exposure at Default(EAD) the same thing as the total Credit LIMIT amount on the Loan? Because if Bank gives a loan with a limit of 10,000$ and the borrower has a ...
3
votes
1answer
1k views

Why is the overnight index swaps considered risk-free?

What I have understood is that the overnight index swap is bootstrapped to discount rates/zero rates that in their turn are considered risk free. The reason being, that the reference rate of such swap ...
1
vote
1answer
867 views

For IFRS9, losses should be discounted with the EIR, why is that sensible?

Within the IFRS9 framework it is stated that one needs to determine the expected losses and discount these with the effective interest rate (EIR), i.e. the contractual rate at initiation. However, I ...
1
vote
0answers
230 views

Monte Carlo simulation implementation

This question relates to credit portfolio analysis. I was asked by my teacher the following question : Why would a bank use MC simulation in the implementation of the covariance model (a bottom-up ...
2
votes
1answer
15k views

How do I use machine learning to build a credit scoring model? [closed]

There are currently a lot of ways for credit scoring. The most popular one is the FICO score, and its variants. For my masters thesis, I would like to work on making my own credit scoring system using ...
1
vote
1answer
1k views

What is Treasury Credit Risk?

I know that there are Treasury Credit Teams in Banks, so I would like to know what Treasury Credit is? I would also like to know the difference between Treasury Credit Risk and Credit Risk?
1
vote
2answers
268 views

How do you quantify credit risk?

I am trying to figure out how to quantify the change in price on a bond for a change in credit risk. I'm not even sure how to quantify a change in credit risk, but I'm thinking possibly something ...
9
votes
1answer
2k views

How to calculate the CVA of a forward contract?

I am having trouble calculating the CVA of a forward contract. The question is presented below Question: There exists a long forwards position underlying on gold with 2 years remaining. The ...
3
votes
1answer
213 views

Data of Credit Migration Matrices

Please advise that how to get the data of credit migration matrices There is a paper of credit migration matrices, I would import the data to Matlab or R for credit analysis. https://www....
2
votes
1answer
221 views

Copulas and default probability

Assume a basket of 3 credits, each with some unconditional default probability ${q_i}(t) = \Pr [{\tau _i} \le t]$. Consider the joint CDF $H$ of the default times is given by $H(t,t,t) = \Pr [{\tau ...
3
votes
3answers
318 views

Merton model riskless self-financing derivation

Suppose $dA_t = A_t[\mu dt+\sigma dW_t]$ (assets' value) under the physical measure, plus the other assumptions of the Merton model. Suppose further that debt and equity are tradeable assets that ...
4
votes
3answers
2k views

Default Probability Implied in Bond Prices?

Say I am trying to find the probability of default on JP Morgan implied by the price of their fixed income assets. Can this be done? Are there any pitfalls to this approach? I have heard of this ...
1
vote
0answers
49 views

Using Put Volatilities to Estimate Firm Leverage/Credit Risk

This paper by Hull, Nelken and White uses implied volatilities in structural credit risk models to back out a market-implied leverage ratio. CreditGrades has a similar implementation using equity ...
2
votes
0answers
336 views

Bayesian analysis in R: Probability of default, low default portfolios

I want to apply the knowledge of this paper (Bayesian estimation of probabilities of default for low default portfolios, by Dirk Tasche) in R, but I can't find the right bayesian package and functions ...
1
vote
0answers
56 views

Valuation Models for Bank Credit Default

What approaches exist for calculating a fair price for a credit default swap for a bank? Most of the traditional valuation models are geared towards industrial firms. Are there any theoretical ...
7
votes
7answers
378 views

Investment Grade Bond vs Junk Bond, whose duration is larger?

Just wondering how to calculate duration when take credit risk into consideration. I think if duration is calculated as weighted average of cashflow time, and weights are calculated using present ...
3
votes
2answers
933 views

Mathematical definitioln of Potential Future Exposure

I have come across a risk measure called "Potential Future Exposure" and I have not really understood the meaning of it. Knowing that this has to do with counterparty credit risk, I read different ...
2
votes
0answers
71 views

How are CDS prices calculated for financial institutions?

If you need to estimate the fair price of a credit default swap on a financial institution, can it be done? Typical structural models tend to break down for the complex debt and asset characteristics ...
2
votes
0answers
77 views

Modelling the Cost of Risk

I would like to read something about the cost of risk. Could anyone recommend some reference about how it is calculated or modelled?
0
votes
2answers
106 views

Business cycles and missing data

For many probability of defaults models in credit risk it is needed to use data observed from a "full" business cycles. Usually a business cycle is defined as a recurring (not necessarily periodic) ...
3
votes
2answers
488 views

CVA using difference between 2 counterparty's spreads

The approximation to calculate CVA as a spread is $CVA = Spread * Expected$ $Exposure$. I assume this means the counterparty's spread over a proxy for the risk free rate such as LIBOR or OIS. Is this ...
1
vote
1answer
828 views

CDO selling or buying credit protection?

I think there is an error in the Meissner text - Correlation Risk Modeling and Management and can't find an errata for this text to verify. On page 19 the foot note reads: Shorting the equity ...
2
votes
2answers
390 views

Can CreditGrades CDS Pricing Model be used for financial firms?

For Canadian banks, the CDS market is very illiquid and inactively traded. I want to get an estimate for the spread for a one year CDS on the Bank of Montreal. I was going to estimate this using the ...