Questions tagged [credit]

Fixed-income instruments whose price depends in large part upon judgments of the creditworthiness of a corporation or government.

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19
votes
2answers
854 views

Concentration risk in credit portfolio

How do you model concentration risk of credit portfolio in IRB/Basel II framework?
17
votes
2answers
2k views

What are the limitations of Gaussian copulas in respect to pricing credit derivatives?

The practice of using Gaussian copulas in modeling credit derivatives has come under a lot of criticism in the past few years. What are the major arguments against using the copula method in this ...
13
votes
1answer
6k views

How to estimate probability of default from bond prices?

How do you use bond prices/yields to infer probabilities of default? I would think of it as follows: Create a relationship between default free (e.g., Germany) and defaultable (e.g., Greece) bond ...
12
votes
3answers
994 views

Validating a Credit Scoring Model without Data

Fellow Quants, Suppose you have a credit scoring model that is developed without the aid of statistics, because (unfortunately) there is no historical default/loss data in your portfolio. The ...
12
votes
3answers
7k views

Quanto CDS modeling

What is the market standard for pricing quanto CDS (i.e. CDS which pays the contingent leg in different currency than the pricing leg)?
11
votes
1answer
5k views

What is the unit of the Distance to Default measure?

I read in a book that the distance to default of a company is "2.978". Can anyone please tell me what is the unit implied behind this measure? Are they "years" for instance?
11
votes
3answers
2k views

On the interface between Quant finance and actuarial-science/insurance-math

Actuaries (at least in Europe) are frequently severily lacking in quant finance topics. At best they are familiar with B&S model. People going into quant finane or striving to become a quant on ...
9
votes
3answers
3k views

How is the default probability implied from market implied CDS spreads for CVA/DVA calculation?

From point 38 on P.17 the default probability can be implied from market implied CDS spreads. "Macro Surface" method is mentioned, but I cannot get any clue of what it is? Where do I get the acedemic ...
8
votes
6answers
19k views

What's the difference between credit risk and counterparty credit risk?

As the title reads, what is the difference between credit risk and counterparty credit risk? What are the key differences?
8
votes
2answers
705 views

Stochastic recovery rates

How do I model the randomness of recovery rate given default when pricing credit derivatives?
8
votes
4answers
2k views

Multi Factor Credit Risk Models

I am working in the area of building credit risk models. Upto this point, the model I have been focused on using the Asymptotic Single Factor Model, more popularly known as Vasicek Single Factor Model....
7
votes
1answer
4k views

Documentation of the ISDA CDS standard model

I have to validate the use of the ISDA CDS standard model. Don't understand me wrong - I am sure that the ISDA model is "good" I just need to know what it is in detail. I can download an Excel-...
7
votes
2answers
329 views

Relationship between BBB credit spreads and rising interest rates

A stylized fact in markets seems to be that there is a negative correlation between interest rates and corporate spreads - as interest rates rise, spreads tend to tighten and vice versa. I'm ...
7
votes
2answers
1k views

Credit Valuation Adjustments — computation issues

I'm currently working on my Masters project related to accelerating Greeks computations for CVA on mixed interest rate portfolios. I would like to know about the status of technology for CVA and its ...
7
votes
1answer
159 views

Best simplified way to model volatility in returns of an investment in a risky fixed income asset

I am currently working on a project where I have analyzed a certain category of fixd income instruments, and I now have the gross aggregate yield as well as the theoretical gross-aggregate default-...
6
votes
4answers
10k views

relation between asset's and equity volatilities - merton model

In terms of Merton credit risk model need to find the initial value of counterparty's assets and the volatility of the assets. Both value are not directly observable thus we have to approximate them ...
6
votes
2answers
1k views

What is a standard credit default swap contract and where can I find spread data? What alternatives exist to judge creditworthiness?

I'm doing some work for a company and one of my tasks is to research credit default swaps on banks and to write a page about them explaining what they are and how they're used to evaluate the banks' ...
6
votes
2answers
568 views

“Where is my money”: CDS Sensitivities, Spreads and PnL Calculations

Trading CDS I experienced something unexpected: A half year ago I sold protection on a single name at a spread of 190bp The coupon was 5% and the contract had a maturity of five years. Using ...
5
votes
2answers
490 views

How to define and measure liquidity or funding premium in credit markets?

Even companies with just a single non-callable corporate bond outstanding will often have CDS quote spreads that differ from the bond quote spread. During the 2008 crisis, there were dozens of cases ...
5
votes
1answer
803 views

How to interpret this CDS spread sensitivity pattern?

From page 27, Table 6: Why are sensitivities of CDS slightly negative before the maturity of the CDS? I do not get the intuition: if I am long a 5-year CDS, the spreads <5y increase, and the 5y ...
5
votes
0answers
2k views

A model to stochastic hazard rate and CDS spread term structure

I'm interested in the term structure of CDS spread. It's known that the Market CDS rate (fair CDS spread or T-maturity spread) of a CDS contract initiated at $s$, maturity $T$ and recovery function $...
5
votes
1answer
1k views

PDF Calculation by Fourier Inversion of Characteristic Function for Affine Intensity Process in Matlab

I'm trying to use the Fourier inversion formula to plot the PDF of an Affine Stochastic Intensity Reduced Form Credit Model, given its characteristic function. The characteristic function of an ...
4
votes
1answer
452 views

When do CDS curves yield arbitrage opportunities?

In CDS markets we can sometimes observe inverted CDS curves or unusually steep curves. I am just wondering at what level certain curves become non-realistic. E.g. if we have 500bp for the 1-Year ...
4
votes
2answers
173 views

CDS - Accumulated Default Risk?

Say I issue insurance contracts covering fire damage in personal households. Fires occur with a probability of $x$% in a household (and they obviously occur independently from one another). If the ...
4
votes
1answer
979 views

What is an appropriate hedge ratio for hedging a credit instrument with equity of the same issuer?

Given a bond and a stock issued by the same issuer, what is the appropriate ratio of bond-to-stock one should hold in order to minimize the specific risk to that issuer? Equivalently, what is the ...
3
votes
2answers
835 views

Why would Basel III prevent price discovery at credit markets?

I'm referring to this interview with Michael Burry. He says: Central banks and Basel III have more or less removed price discovery from the credit markets. Why would Basel III cause this effect?
3
votes
1answer
1k views

Hedging bond with CDS of different maturity

Say I buy a 10-year bond with a notional of 100k. To hedge my credit risk entirely I could buy a 10-year CDS, also on a notional of 100k. Now, if there are only 5-year CDS trading and no 10-year CDS, ...
3
votes
2answers
272 views

CVA/CDVA - Worsened Credit Quality implies profit?

In the book Counterparty Credit Risk, Collateral and Funding by Brigo et al I found the following: credit quality of investor WORSENS $\Rightarrow$ books POSITIVE MARK TO MKT credit quality of ...
3
votes
4answers
248 views

Intuitively, why does liquidity premium contribute to bond yield?

According to the Wikipedia, "The upwards-curving component of the interest yield can be explained by the liquidity premium... Liquidity risk premiums are recommended to be used with longer term ...
3
votes
1answer
166 views

Introducing credit risk to an already implemented interest rate model

Do any standard/generic approaches exist on how to extend an interest rate model to incorporate credit risk? The first thing that comes to mind would be to just model the credit spread separately - ...
3
votes
2answers
179 views

Correct Discount Curve for Exchange Traded (Centrally Cleared) Products

What's the correct discount curve to use for exchange traded products? Would these be discounted at the OIS rate (because of the central clearing house)? E.g. the E-Mini S&P500 Future @ CME: I'm ...
3
votes
1answer
61 views

STCDO upper tranche still paying coupons even after all default

We assume : that a CDO on $n$ names, with a maturity $T$ that at a time $\tau<T$ before the maturity of the CDO, these $n$ names have defaulted, that we are the protection buyer of the 22-100 ...
3
votes
2answers
116 views

Finding Credit Risk Population Data

Are there any free or relatively cheap sources of aggregate data on credit risk for specific geographic regions, ages, and so on?
3
votes
1answer
120 views

Simplifying an expectation function of default time and rates

I have the following expectation to calculate : $$ \mathbf{E}\left[ e^{\int_{t_0}^{\tau} r_s ds} \mathbf{1}_{\{\tau < T\}}\right] $$ More precisely, I want to show that : $$ \mathbf{E}\left[ e^{\...
3
votes
1answer
194 views

What are recent important papers on credit portfolio risk modeling?

I'm interested in papers which consider mathematical models of risks of different portfolios of retail credit. This is not my area of research, so I may be misusing some terms. The idea is simple: I ...
3
votes
0answers
97 views

Basket Default Swap (BDS)

I would like to understand better the $n^{th}$ to default pair spreads of a basket default swap containing $m>n$ entities. For example, consider 2 single name CDS's with same spread and same ...
2
votes
2answers
1k views

Accrual in Default Derivation of Credit CDS Curve

In Trading Credit Curves Part I by JP Morgan we have that each point on a credit (CDS) curve represents: $$PV(\text{Fee Leg}) = PV(\text{Contingent Leg})$$ which is $$S_n \sum_{i=1}^{n}\Delta_i ...
2
votes
1answer
676 views

Markit recovery rates : assumed vs real

I often see two different recovery rates in Markit : real recovery rate and assumed recovery rate. What is the difference between them ?
2
votes
2answers
47 views

Are Credit Default Swaps used by B2B Service providers or Vendors?

I understand CDS's are often employed in trading strategies between institutions - That is well publicized. What isn't as publicized is how other customers might look to use a CDS. I work in an ...
2
votes
3answers
190 views

Systematic credit “liquidity provider” strategy

I was reading a piece published by Bloomberg today, where it says the following: “A systematic process lends itself to providing liquidity rather than taking it because our models have views on ...
2
votes
1answer
821 views

Hedging Ratios for Fixed Income Instruments

If you buy a corporate bond and you want to hedge the interest rate risk, how would you know how many interest rate futures/swaps to hedge the bond with? The same with an MBS security, if you want to ...
2
votes
1answer
118 views

What are the best relative value frameworks for Corporate Credit?

Fixed Income (Credit) fair value models in the literature tend to be variations on cross-sectional regressions. For a recent example in a factor-model setting, see here. My understanding is that this ...
2
votes
1answer
75 views

The role of micro credit in finance

The concept of micro credit has been around for a while. Recall that Muhammad Yunus together with Grameen Bank were awarded the Nobel price in this context. I don't have references at hand but I ...
2
votes
0answers
53 views

CDS pricing using intensity models incorporating liquidity

I want to price a CDS using an intensity based model, but I want to account for liquidity as well. General model: The default time $\tau$ is the first jump time of a cox process, and the survival ...
2
votes
0answers
239 views

Need to solve the stochastic differential equation of Vasicek Model

How to solve the stochastic differential equation of the Vasicek model for the analysis of credit risk? I search in the article "The Distribution of loan portfolio value" (Vasicek) but he doesn't ...
2
votes
0answers
30 views

Flattening a Credit Loss Curve

I have a credit loss curve for 36 months and I want to transform that curve into a 20 months curve without changing its final loss. My credit loss vector is a % of unpaid principal balance in a ...
2
votes
0answers
1k views

Free Data Source for Credit Spreads?

Credit spreads are a key economic indicator. They are the difference between yields on corporate and government debt. They are a measure of confidence in the private sector, they provide insight into ...
2
votes
0answers
387 views

US Rule versus Actuarial Method for calculating interest

I'm trying to understand the difference between the actuarial method and the U.S. Rule for calculating interest. I think the difference is that the actuarial rule adds unpaid interest to the principal ...
1
vote
1answer
61 views

Can I calculate the CVA or DVA over a sovereign portfolio?

Hi I haven't understood if I can apply the CVA just for derivatives or I can estimate the PD from CDS spreads and apply these in a bonds portfolio for the CVA calculus. The CVA literature refers to "...
1
vote
1answer
82 views

Is a CDS spread a spread in a typical sense

I have a basic question that's causing me some confusion. I see discussion of a "CDS spread," defined as the cost of protection. Are these the same as a bid-ask spread? Is there any relation between ...