Questions tagged [currency]

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21
votes
4answers
347 views

What are the effects of turning a backed currency into a fiat currency?

I hear a lot of debate over the removal of the U.S. Dollar's precious metal backing and the subsequent inflation rates, but is there any proven relationship between unbacked currency and extreme ...
14
votes
3answers
1k views

Effective Euro-USD (EURUSD) Exchange Rate Prior to Euro's Existence

Motivation: I am running a quantitative analysis that requires long-term, exchange rate data. Problem: Does anyone have methods for dealing with the EURUSD exchange rate prior to the Euro's existence?...
8
votes
2answers
748 views

Should I use currency hedged or unhedged returns for a global equity allocation model?

I am building a global tactical equity allocation model. The model will help determine an optimal allocation amongst a number of major developed and emerging stock markets (represented for my purposes ...
8
votes
2answers
730 views

Looking for Research Paper on Creation of Currency Baskets

I came across a paper, not sure it originated from academia or a blog or such, that reported on applying principal components to build currency baskets from a set of individual currency pairs and to ...
7
votes
1answer
1k views

Is trading mean reversion of small principal components of prices profitable?

Many have told me that it is a good idea to look at the third principal component (PC) of yield curve movements, as well as third and fourth PC of G10 currencies. They claim these PCs represent "...
6
votes
1answer
224 views

CNY Devaluation: Why EUR up, USD down?

The second unexpected devaluation of the Chinese currency CNY caused some turbulent market movements in currencies today. I was surprised that the EUR went to a 1-week high against the USD up by ...
6
votes
1answer
367 views

Modelling EUR/USD rate with Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model

I have a data set of daily EUR/USD rate for time period 2000-2018. My goal is to model future behaviour of this financial time series using Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model: $$d X_t = \alpha (\theta - X_t) ...
5
votes
2answers
335 views

Day count conventions for covered parity theory

I am calculating implied interest rates using covered interest rate parity theorem. I am looking at the Australian US currency pair. When evaluating day counts, should I be using Actual/365 for ...
5
votes
2answers
211 views

Currency Hedged Excess Return

In the famous article "Global portfolio optimisation" of Black and Litterman, the authors defined the excess return on currency-hedged assets as the following : $$ E_t = 100 \frac{P_{t+1}X_t}{P_tX_{...
5
votes
2answers
174 views

How to find an initial equilibrium benchmark portfolio that includes currencies for Black-Litterman model

We're working on a term project to adjust B-L model to yield robust results. From our readings, we resulted in that initial benchmark portfolio is constructed by using market capitalization weight. ...
4
votes
2answers
17k views

Why is there onshore and offshore currency?

I hear a lot about offshore and onshore currency, but I don't understand the difference between them. What is the difference between onshore and offshore currency in a country? Besides that, why is ...
4
votes
4answers
2k views

Difficulty understanding put-call parity for currency options

I am self-studying for an actuarial exam on models for financial economics. I am having difficulty thinking about the put-call parity for currency options, specifically how use the notation. Here is ...
4
votes
3answers
511 views

How to most optimally perform currency conversions when backtesting on portfolio level?

I am currently expanding my own strategy profiling and testing platform which partly consists of a portfolio backtesting module. The backtest engine processes tick based data (quotes for currencies, ...
4
votes
3answers
1k views

Optimizing a currency only portfolio with negative weights

I am testing various optimization methods for a currency-only portfolio. I have a vector of expected returns for the major developed currencies vs. the USD each week (based on a proprietary model). I ...
4
votes
1answer
159 views

Existential question about currency exchange Risk Factor

Ciao All, I'm working to a problem about sensitivities for products with several ccy and this questions came out. For simplicity consider a linear product (a simple cash flow) w.r.t. the ccy ...
4
votes
2answers
129 views

Calculating probability of Yuan's slump from options market

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-06/if-options-traders-are-right-the-yuan-s-slump-is-far-from-over Contract prices indicate a 79 percent probability that the currency will weaken ...
4
votes
3answers
139 views

How does US banks ensure that other country's banks aren't counterfeiting USD?

I have had this question for a long time. For example, if I wire 50M USD from China to the US, does the Chinese bank physically deliver 50M USD cash to the US bank? or is it just changing a number in ...
4
votes
2answers
1k views

Fama-French Factors in €

I am having a bit of a problem with currency conversion issues. What I do: I sort European stocks based on their book-to-market ratio, each year I form a portfolio (equal-weight) with the 10 stocks ...
4
votes
1answer
792 views

How trading in currency pair works, underlying techniques and mechanisms

I am somewhat experienced in Forex trading, but I have a question which has bothered me for quite some time. If we for instance go back in time four months, to before the beginning of value loss the ...
3
votes
2answers
246 views

Transform Fama French Returns to Euro

I constructed a global portfolio and calculate it's daily return in Euro. Now i want to do the regression with the Fama-French daily factor-returns (HML, SMB). However, these returns can only be ...
3
votes
2answers
5k views

How do I calculate the PPP adjusted exchange rate between two countries?

I have been trying to calculate the PPP-adjusted EURUSD exchange rate. I am not sure if it is the same as relative PPP, for which I have used this formula: Spot rate at time t = Current spot rate * ((...
3
votes
0answers
312 views

Regressing non-USD returns on FF 3-factor returns

I am analysing some portfolio returns from the perspective of a Danish investor, i.e. in the local currency, DKK. I want to regress portfolio returns in DKK on the returns of a 3 factor Fama & ...
2
votes
3answers
113 views

Why do higher interest rates increase the value of the currency?

I've been trying to study about interest rates and foreign exchange. First of all when people say interest rate in this context do they mean interest rate set by the central bank like federal reserve (...
2
votes
4answers
129 views

Which rate to use as a risk free rate in emerging markets?

By looking at Fama and Frenchs global Portfolios, they just use the USD-RF rate as the risk free rate, because they converted their Returns to US-Dollar. Im currently estimating Strategy Returns in ...
2
votes
2answers
82 views

Group name for currencies, equities and other financial products

I am working on a financial software system that deals with crypto currencies. This system has a model called 'Currency' that describes for example 'BTC' and market for which there is a 'base' and '...
2
votes
1answer
191 views

Option Delta Conversion for currency pairs

Assuming I have a USDJPY put option at strike 100 (1USD = 100Yen) and the delta is D1. What is the delta of a corresponding JPYUSD call option at strike 0.01 (1Yen = 0.01USD) with the same maturity? ...
2
votes
2answers
403 views

Forex trading scenarios - calculating units

I'm trying to build an automated forex trading system and I'm trying to understand how to calculate the number of units I should specify for each trade in different scenarios. Say for example I have ...
2
votes
1answer
114 views

Relationshiop between central bank official currency rates and spot forex

Central banks publish official figures for domestic interest rates, as well as spot currency rates for a few select countries (largest trading partners). To prevent arbitrage, I "expect" that in the ...
2
votes
1answer
5k views

how to chain monthly excess returns into annual?

I want to calculate annual excess returns on portfolios using monthly returns for a CAPM (for the assets in the portfolio as well as for the benchmark), in order to have more information on the ...
2
votes
1answer
93 views

What does **Long Call EURUSD** mean?

What does Long Call EURUSD mean? Does it mean Long Call EUR and Short Put USD? When we draw payoff do we consider only w.r.t. to CCY1 i.e. EUR in this case?
2
votes
4answers
792 views

Bond portfolio hedging against currency risk

How do I hedge a bond portfolio against currency risk? Ideally I'm looking for books or other references on this topic.
2
votes
1answer
893 views

Log returns and GARCH models

I try to model currency rates volatility using GARCH models through the RUGARCH package in R. Starting from the observed currency rate series, I compute the log-return through: ...
2
votes
1answer
961 views

annual excess returns from CAPM on monthly total returns

I want to calculate annual excess returns on portfolios using monthly returns for a CAPM (for the assets in the portfolio as well as for the benchmark), in order to have more information on the ...
2
votes
1answer
48 views

How are asset backed cryptocurrencies priced?

I am trying to understand the pricing of crypto currencies. Assuming there is a fictional cryptocurrency that is pegged (say) the Chinese Renminbi and the price of Wheat (the relation being the ...
2
votes
2answers
144 views

Is order amount related to base or quote in a currency pair?

Say I have a currency pair GBP/USD at rate 1.45, buying 1 GBP costs ...
2
votes
2answers
373 views

Best practice for international Fama-French analysis

First I have to admit that I have never been really good at thinking about the implications of investments in different currencies. I don't know why but it makes my head spin, this is why I am no FX ...
2
votes
1answer
235 views

Weights in Portfolio Attribution when considering Currency

I'm performing a simple Portfolio attribution with the Brinson 1985 model where returns are decomposed into both an allocation component and a selection. Using the formula, I first did the ...
2
votes
1answer
512 views

How does currency valuation depend on the cash reserve ratio for a country?

Currency valuation (with respect to other currencies) is an important parameter in finance, but how is it related to the cash reserve ratio?
2
votes
2answers
1k views

The Fair Value of Paying in Currency X for Goods Bought in Currency Y

Me and my friends are from Europe, we went to US. At the end of the trip they bought an item worth $USD 100$, but because they were short of money, so I paid for the item first with my own $USD 100$. ...
2
votes
0answers
63 views

Kingdom of Denmark Nikkei put warrants

I have read in a book from Emanuel Derman that Goldman Sachs manufactured a derivative in the early 90's that consisted of buying cheap puts on th Nikkei index (and paid in Yen), combined them which a ...
2
votes
0answers
40 views

What does it mean to change the currency of a spread between bonds from 2 different countries?

On reuters I charted the spread between the 10yr US bond and the 10yr UK bond. It gives the me the option of choosing the currency. For just the standard spread(ie: yield(US)-yield(UK)) you select ...
1
vote
2answers
89 views

Do we model nominal or real prices of assets?

The answer is probably obvious, but interestingly enough, I was not able to find it in explicit form in the mathematical finance textbooks. So when Shreve says in paragraph 5.2.2 of SCF-II: ...
1
vote
1answer
163 views

Why is Indian rupee is stable against the USD even though most other currencies weakening?

The Indian Rupee (INR) seems fairly stable against the USD (1 USD = 62-64 INR) in the recent times even though most other currencies have weakened against USD, some by 20-30%. Apparently, INR is ...
1
vote
3answers
152 views

Is there a broad currency index just like there is an equity market index?

I would like to assess the performance of currency traders so I was wondering if there is a broad currency index that can be used as a benchmark to assess the performance of these traders. The index ...
1
vote
3answers
149 views

What is meant by “position at a given time” in the context of a series of forex trades?

Suppose you are only talking about a single currency pair, say EUR/USD. Throughout some period of time, you engage in trades with various other parties, sometimes buying, sometimes selling. The rates ...
1
vote
4answers
172 views

Where can I get json currency data feeds every millisecond?

I have been looking for free or paid json data feeds on currencies for long. I have come across: currencylayer.com Oanda XE The problem is that I really need millisecond based updates. Can someone ...
1
vote
2answers
86 views

different amount of information on return correlations from shorter and longer periods?

I want to calculate annual excess returns on portfolios using monthly (total) returns for a CAPM (for the assets in the portfolio as well as for the benchmark), in order to have more information on ...
1
vote
1answer
527 views

Blackbox Optimization + Bootstrapping = Parameter Selection?

Most automated trading systems have a number of embedded parameters such as the lookback periods, entry and exit thresholds, etc. This is like the moving average crossover system or any of the systems ...
1
vote
1answer
51 views

Basic FX-Forwards trading Guide [closed]

What fundamentals or other factors should one follow to trade currency Forwards intraday?
1
vote
1answer
41 views

Why currencies and futures contracts can be considered as assets with known yields?

I understand why stock index can be considered as assets with known yields due to the dividends. But why currencies and futures contracts can also be considered as assets with known yields? In the ...