Questions tagged [default-probability]

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13
votes
4answers
93k views

How to compute the implied probability of default from a CDS spread?

I have two tasks: Given country's CDS spread draw implied probability of default. Given probability of default calculate CDS spread. If possible, refer to any papers.
5
votes
1answer
5k views

Interest rate implied probability of default

Is there an equation or rule of thumb to determine the probility of default for a loan with a specific interest rate? Let's say, a bank offers a company a loan with an interest rate of 6%, by which ...
2
votes
3answers
3k views

CDS Spreads and Equity Volatility

Why does CDS spreads track the implied volatility on equities? What is the fundamental relationship that would keep the two inline from deviating too far from each other? My speculation: Could it be ...
6
votes
2answers
312 views

Quarterly Survival rate given there is a Quarterly Probability of Default

I am trying to calculate the Quarterly Marginal PD. I have calculated it as given in the below image but I am thinking about whether the Survival rate calculation is making sense or not. The ...
3
votes
1answer
153 views

Pricing homogeneous Basket Default Swap

Consider a basket with $K=10$ names. Default times of the names, $\tau_k$, are i.i.d. random variables with distribution $P(\tau_k \leq t) = 1 - e^{-\lambda t}$. Suppose that each name in the basket ...
3
votes
1answer
130 views

Simplifying an expectation function of default time and rates

I have the following expectation to calculate : $$ \mathbf{E}\left[ e^{\int_{t_0}^{\tau} r_s ds} \mathbf{1}_{\{\tau < T\}}\right] $$ More precisely, I want to show that : $$ \mathbf{E}\left[ e^{\...
3
votes
3answers
1k views

Interpolating probabilities of default

I have a table of cumulative probabilities of default of industrial bonds, in time and credit rating. It is similar to S&P whitepaper here. Basically, it looks like this (sample numbers): ...
3
votes
1answer
5k views

What is Margin of Conservatism

In modelling loss given default,(LGD), we often encounter the term Margin of Conservatism. What is it in layman's terms? I am not able to find a wikipedia page on this.
1
vote
1answer
193 views

Probability of Default calculation

I am looking for some good resources with handful of workout examples, on the modelling of the Probability of Default under IFRS9...