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6
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0answers
418 views

is there a mapping from Altman Z-score for private companies to bond ratings or probability of default?

On wikipedia, there is a formula to calculate the Altman Z-score for private companies: Z-score estimated for private firms: T1 = (Current Assets − Current Liabilities) / Total Assets T2 = Retained ...
3
votes
0answers
105 views

How can we price an option taking into account the “issuer risk”?

I'm trying to take a closer look to option pricing in a risky environment. Let's say a firm $A$ sells me an (European) option on an underlying $S$ (which of course can be any other financial product ...
3
votes
0answers
225 views

default probability

Suppose the hazard rate is $\lambda$ the default probability density function follow exponential $f(t) = \lambda e^{-\lambda t}$ and cumulative probability function is $F(t) = 1 - e^{-\lambda t}$ ...
3
votes
0answers
64 views

Credit spreads vs default events dependence

Reading this note it strikes me that credit spreads and defaults seem not to be commonly modeled jointly (e.g. more or less directly in structural models), but at best with some kind of "ex post" ...
2
votes
0answers
76 views

Methods for calculating Expected shortfall

Let B1, B2 be two defaultable zero-coupon bonds maturing in 1 year, each with a face value of $100. Assume: each bond is priced at 90 dollars each bond has a 4% probability to default within 1 year ...
2
votes
0answers
54 views

LGD performing model - LGD estimate vs LGD observed

LGD (Loss Given Default) performing model is developed on through the cycle sample which consists of loans in default. What I want is to compare LGD estimate and LGD observed (realized). LGD observed ...
2
votes
0answers
67 views

Calibration of intensity model

I could use some advice on calibration of stochastic intensity models. I am thinking that the CIR model is most suitable, as it can not take negative values (when feller condition is satisfied). I ...
2
votes
0answers
70 views

How are CDS prices calculated for financial institutions?

If you need to estimate the fair price of a credit default swap on a financial institution, can it be done? Typical structural models tend to break down for the complex debt and asset characteristics ...
2
votes
0answers
408 views

Obtaining the default probability and recovery rate for each credit rating?

I have the following questions for obtaining the credit rating: Given that I have cumulative default probability of each credit rating from Global Corporate Average Cumulative Default Rates (1982-...
1
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0answers
65 views

How to determine the default probability of a county in a bond that is not in its native currency?

Disclaimer: This post is cross posted in here also. Consider the following case: Country P uses the currency Euro and gives p percent interest on a one year bond issued in Euro. Country Q uses the ...
1
vote
0answers
42 views

Can hazard rate intensity models be used with bonds?

We are trying to build a risk neutral PD Model for institutions without CDS. In Malz's "Financial Risk Management: Models, History and Institutions", Chapter 7, its said that we can extract the ...
1
vote
0answers
71 views

Pricing defaultable asset with finite maturity

Assume a stochastic process $X_0 = 0$ and $X_t = \nu t + \sigma W_t$ where $W_t$ is standard Brownian motion and $\nu$ is a drift (can have $\nu \leq 0$ if necessary, but prefer it to be general), ...
1
vote
0answers
75 views

Fair Price CDS Spread for a Bank

I have been using CreditGrades to calculate fair one year CDS spreads for firms. However, the authors of the model explicitly say that the model does not hold for banks or financial firms. If I need ...
1
vote
0answers
56 views

Alternatives to CDSs for default term structure?

The CDS market seems to be drying up, funding&liquidity issues are now prevalent over credit, so other sources for default probabilities are needed. What else is commonly used to obtain a ...
1
vote
0answers
881 views

Question about Merton model to estimate default probability and recovery rate of the company

I recently come across Merton's model to estimate the default probability and recovery rate of the company. Here is the inputs ...
0
votes
0answers
104 views

probability of default for Kolomogorov backward equation

suppose $$dA = \mu Adt + \sigma AdX.$$ is a geometric Brownian motion. One says that the Probability $P(A,t)$ of $A$ reashing the critical level $K(t)$ before maturity: $$\dfrac{\partial P}{\partial ...