Questions tagged [distribution]

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105 views

Why stock prices changes don't follow Pareto Distribution?

I calculated the distribution of the stock price changes (diffs). The diffs are multiplicative, $d_t=p_{t} / p_{t-1}$. As far as I know the distribution should look like Power law distribution (Pareto ...
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94 views

basic numerical integration question related to case of high positive volatility skew

is the below equation true irrespective of if that 2nd derivative turns out to be negative or >1 , (ie even if theres an arbitrage) ? the reason i ask is that i am writing a single asset montecarlo ...
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1answer
117 views

Fat tailed can be estimated through a t-distributions?

I have a simple question that makes me doubt a bit. In a multiple choise exam I ecountered this question: "if the stocks returns are not normally distributed, the fat tail effect can be estimated ...
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208 views

On a time integral of Brownian motion up to the hitting time

Just come up with a 'simple' and interesting problem that I've been struggling to deal with for some time. Consider a filtered probability space $(\Omega, \mathcal{F}, \{\mathcal{F}_t\}_{t\in[0,T]},\...
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2answers
65 views

Creating a set of histories that satisfies certain statistics

I'm looking at a download of BlackRock's capital market assumptions, which gives a bunch of statistics, such as expected and quartiles for asset classes' returns for different timeframes, volatilities ...
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1answer
115 views

Reconciling Two Claims About Volatility Under Fat Tails

I have read the Wikipedia article on volatility, and Nassim N. Taleb's Incerto, and found two statements attributed to Mandelbrot's views, which appear to be in contradiction. Taleb (who was mentored ...
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1answer
77 views

Estimating distribution of rate of return

Let $f[t]$ be the price of a stock at time $t$. We can calculate the rolling rate of return of the stock in a window of length $n$ by computing: $$r[t] = \frac{f[t] - f[t-n]}{f[t-n]}$$ $r[t]$ is ...
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290 views

Probability Distribution at each Simulation Period using Geometric Brownian Motion

I am using the equation $S_t = S_0e^{(\mu-\frac{\sigma^2}{2})t+\sigma\epsilon\sqrt{t}} $ to simulate a financial metric at each $t$, where $t=1$ and $T=5$. Stated in plain English, I am trying to ...
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68 views

non gaussian distributions with higher moments and time scaling properties?

If we assume a portfolio comprised of n asset classes, whose log returns can be modeled with a distribution. I am interested in finding a distribution that: incorporates higher moments (skewness and ...
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39 views

How can I find the distribution function of the following random variables?

Suppose that the random variables $Z_i$ are defined as follows: \begin{equation} Z_i = D(0, t_i)(R_{i-1} +c)\Delta N, \end{equation} where $D(0, t_i)= \exp\{-\int_{0}^{t_i} r_u du\}$ for which $r_u$ ...
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2answers
177 views

Taleb's Black-Swan: interpretation of the exponent

I am reading Taleb's "Black Swan" (revised 2020th edition). In chapter 16 "The Aesthetics of Randomness" he describes the meaning of the exponent in the context of extrapolation. ...
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77 views

The distribution of the jump diffusion process

In the Merton jump diffusion model the process of the share price can be expressed as $$S_{t}=S_{0}\cdot\exp\left\{ X_{t}\right\} ,$$ where $$X_{t}=\mu t+\sigma W_{t}+\sum_{i=1}^{N_{t}}Y_{i}.$$ Here $...
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42 views

What range of skewness values do asset returns exhibit?

If we have multivariate stock returns data (daily, weekly, or monthly), what range of skewness values would we typically observe across firms? $-1.5$ to $1.5$, for example Also can we expect the ...
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1answer
73 views

Calculating the Value-at-Risk when changing the confidence level

If I have a VaR estimate at a 95% confidence interval is 10, how do I calculate the approximate level of the VaR if the confidence level was raised to 99%, assuming a one-tailed normal distribution?
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Should stock return series be modeled with a parametric distribution, or an autoregressive function? [closed]

If I have prior knowledg that a stock return series follows a parametric distribution, such as a Student t-distribution with 4 degrees of freedom, without actively looking for prior knowledge of ...
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1answer
161 views

What does this absolute return distribution chart show?

I was reading some pages in Professional Automated Trading by Eugene Durenard when I came across this chart: The caption says: "S&P Absolute Return Distribution: Log-Log Scale". The ...
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1answer
76 views

FX spot distribution with student-t returns

If I am modelling my returns as $\sim N(0, \sigma^2)$, then I can evolve my spot distribution as: $$S_{t} = S_{0}e^{(\mu - \frac{1}{2}\sigma^{2})t + \sigma dW_{t}}$$ where $S_{0}$ is the spot, $\mu$ ...
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87 views

What should degrees of freedom $\nu$ be set to when modeling financial returns that follow the t-distribution?

The closer the t-distribution degrees of freedom ($\nu$) is to 0, the more heavy are the tails, whereas high degrees of freedom recovers the normal distribution. In finance, what value is usually used ...
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175 views

Large deviations theory in finance

In probability theory, the theory of large deviations concerns the asymptotic behavior of remote tails of sequences of probability distributions. A related post says: Large deviations theory is ...
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3answers
169 views

Do portfolio mean and portfolio variance have probability distributions?

If $X$ is a $T\times N$ matrix of multivariate asset returns, and $w$ is some optimal portfolio weight vector, then the portfolio return series is $r_p = X w \in\mathbb{R}^{T}$. This return series ...
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56 views

Is asset return skewness hard to estimate?

The asset mean is known to be difficult to estimate, incurring more estimation error than estimates of asset return variance. How about asset return skewness, is it hard to estimate and how can that ...
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39 views

Portfolio return distribution as a mixture distribution

For a returns data set with $K$ stocks that are each normally distributed, can I represent the portfolio return distribution to be a weighted sum of the $K$ asset distributions, aka a mixture ...
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181 views

law of absolute of max of brownian motion

What is the law of $\max\left(|B_t|\right)$ for $t$ in $[0,T]$ and $B_t$ is a Brownian motion? Any references for properties of this process?
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1answer
109 views

Does Value-at-Risk have any mathematical equivalence to copulas?

Portfolio Value-at-Risk estimated using the copula approach often just means generating artificial data sampled from a parametric copula('s joint multivariate distribution) as a model fit over the ...
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2answers
233 views

What is the distribution of the risk-free asset?

If the risk-free asset has a volatility of $0$, therefore making its mean equal to the risk-free rate, $r_f$, does this mean that it has no probability distribution, and therefore there is no reason ...
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1answer
95 views

How important is the chronological ordering of historical returns?

The returns of asset $A$ in chronological order are 0.03 0.01 -0.04 0.02 0.05 -0.10 0.02 The expected return, or sample mean, is $-0.00143$ while its sample ...
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2answers
165 views

Interpretation of a uniform asset return distribution

Typically asset return distributions are bell-shaped with most mass occurring in and around the center, 0% returns, and less so in the tails, with the left tail representing the probability of large ...
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1answer
103 views

Monte Carlo approach and methods for generating random returns

Recently I found myself reading more about Monte Carlo approach in m.v. portfolio optimization framework. I already discuss the topic on this forum (if interested please consider the following links - ...
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1answer
225 views

Minimizing variance vs. expected shortfall: distributions where the difference is salient

In portfolio theory in finance, given a set of $n$ assets to choose from, one often selects portfolio weights so as to maximize expected return and minimize some measure of risk, e.g. variance or ...
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3answers
147 views

Are mean-variance efficient portfolio weights random variables with probability distributions?

The mean-variance model outputs a portfolio weight vector whose elements are individual asset weights that sum to 1. Regardless of which portfolio along the efficient frontier is being solved, the ...
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1answer
179 views

Is it always better to use the entire distribution of a financial returns series, not just $\mu$ and $\sigma$?

In finance models that use historical returns for inputs, including option pricing models, forecasting and portfolio optimization, only the statistical moments of the returns distribution, $\mu$ and $\...
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1answer
165 views

Which financial time series have a PDF and/or CDF?

Consider the following types of financial time series for a single publicly-listed stock: Price data Log returns Cumulative returns Each is computed from the item listed before it: log returns are ...
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43 views

Density of a portfolio's returns is the weighted average of asset distributions?

The expected return of a portfolio can be formulated as a weighted average of the constituent assets' returns: $$r_p = w_1 r_1 + w_2 r_2 + \dots + w_N r_N + \epsilon$$ Does it also follow that the ...
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1answer
205 views

Why do cumulative returns have a bimodal distribution?

Regular returns (log-differenced prices) have statistical distributions that are bell-shaped and unimodal (one mode/peak) despite being non-normal and fat-tailed. Cumulative returns, on the other hand,...
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1answer
88 views

Option implied distributions

I am having a bit of trouble understanding how to obtain the option implied distributions. I have strike levels, deltas and implied vols for a call option that expires in 6 months. Roughly 40 data ...
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1answer
73 views

Kurtosis of a straddle

I want to determine the kurtosis of a straddle. My question is closely related with the following topic here. According to the following paper of Ben-Meir and Schiff (2012) the expected value of a ...
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1answer
162 views

Change of measure

I am looking at the derivation of the Hill estimator. It is $ \bar{F}(x) = 1 - F(x)$ the right tail of the distribution. In the derivation they use the equation $$ \frac{1}{\bar{F}(u)}\int\limits_u^\...
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5answers
268 views

Why worry about fat tails, if you can use stoploss?

Sorry this might sound a silly question, but -humbly- I don't understand why models assume that returns range from [-∞,+∞] instead of [-stoplimit, +takeprofit]. A common objection to most models is "...
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74 views

Full Copula View using Meucci's Full Flexible View

I'm currently setting up an "Investment Framework" that should allow the following steps: Investment Committee (IC) has to decide on probabilities for 4 different market states. I have historical ...
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1answer
42 views

What does 'near term order flow to be distributed across short term options' mean?

Please see the red phrase below. Guide to Option Pinning at Options Expiration | Investing With Options What Have Weekly Options Done To Pinning? That's a great question for a graduate student ...
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28 views

Degree of freedom input for Monte Carlo simulation of asset returns with multivariate t distribution

How do I calculate or estimate the degrees of freedom in order to perform a Monte Carlo simulation of asset returns with multivariate t distribution using R functions? I am able to calculate the mean ...
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1answer
203 views

Value at Risk (VaR): Normal distribution with gamma distributed volatility

If I was to do a 99% VaR calculation on a portfolio with normally distributed returns $\mathcal{N} (\mu,\sigma)$, the 99% VaR would be $\mu - 2.33\sigma$. Instead of having a constant volatility, let'...
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1answer
70 views

Sampling from an empirical distribution

I want to sample from the empirical distribution of returns. To do so, I do not want to make the preliminary assumption of which distribution the returns follow, rather I would like to sample from the ...
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41 views

Skewness and kurtosis measures when full distribution is not available

I have asked this question here, but did not get any answer. I was wondering if anybody knows a method of deriving skewness and kurtosis measures from different quantiles, mean, and/or variance. I do ...
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1answer
524 views

Two Probability Questions from Quantitative Finance Interview Book

I posted the two questions in math stack exchange one month ago but cannot get an answer, so I post it here and appreciate your advice:) I'm reading an interview book called A Practical Guide to ...
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2answers
186 views

How would a FX price probability distibution function look?

I would like to see how the currency price levels are distributed in a probability function. But I don't even know if there is such a thing or if perhaps its just common knowledge and readily ...
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1answer
56 views

Market vs. Credit Loss distributions: differences

If we define the Loss distribution of a portfolio as $$L_{t+h}=-(V_{t+h}-V_{t})$$ where $V_{t}$ is the value of the portfolio at time $t$ and $h$ is the time horizon, which are the (graphical) ...
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Example how to model stock price with Pareto distribution according to Mandelbrot and Taleb

There's a paper by B. Mandelbrot and N. Taleb Mild vs Wild Randomness that says that Pareto distributions is a better fit for modelling price changes. ...
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2answers
179 views

Produce the random variable for an asset from a uniformly distributed random varible

I'm working on a quant interview question from the book called Quant Job Interview Questions And Answers (by Mark Joshi and other authors). I cannot understand the following question(not the answer, ...
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41 views

relationship between option vol and option payoff

Has anyone thought of the relationship between the option vol and distribution of option payoff? for example, I have 1000 paths of simulated underlying prices, keeping all inputs the same but only ...