Questions tagged [econometrics]
The econometrics tag has no usage guidance.
162
questions
0
votes
0answers
49 views
What are the example of "repeated cross-section" and "two cross-sectional dimensions"?
Borusyak, 2021 has a sentence
In Section 5 we consider extensions to repeated cross-sections, data
defined by two cross-sectional dimensions (e.g. regions and age
groups), triple-differences designs, ...
3
votes
0answers
62 views
What is the relationship between the estimated GARCH(1,1) conditional volatility and the true conditional volatility
Suppose that the data has been generated by a GARCH(1,1) model, i.e.
\begin{align}
y_t &= h_t \epsilon_t, \; \epsilon_t \sim N(0,1) \\
h_t &= \alpha_0 + \alpha_1 \epsilon_{t-1}^2 + \...
0
votes
0answers
39 views
Why we need to control for import and exchange rate change when examining asset growth?
Dasgupta , 2019 examines the impact of antitrust laws on asset growth, total net external financing, debt-to-equity ratio. In his regression, I saw that he controls for imports as a percentage of GDP, ...
0
votes
0answers
44 views
Covariance of ARCH(2) model
I am having problems solving the following exercise:
The solution is the following:
I understand we are calculating E(r^2t) and E(r^2tr^2t-1) because they are part of the covariance formula, and ...
0
votes
0answers
34 views
event study and Covid-19 using panel data problem
I am doing my master thesis and my subject is how covid-19 has affected the stock market.
I have already calculated abnormal returns and CARS using market model and OLS regression for different ...
0
votes
0answers
22 views
How to classify sample by time-variant index?
In finance paper, we have a famous index representing for law is WGI (World Governance Index). I am wondering how we classify countries by this index as this paper below.
It is easy to classify based ...
0
votes
0answers
19 views
Why the common trend assumption of subsample will be the same with the whole sample in DID?
When separating the sample into subsamples in this topic, this answer stated that
I guess parallel trend assumption must hold within municipality size.
DID with homogeneous effect typically assumes E[...
1
vote
0answers
46 views
How to build Fama-French model factors SMB and HML to compare sustainable index to conventional benchmark?
My goal is to analyze and compare the performance between socially responsible indices and conventional ones. I am comparing for each region (Europe, UK, World, US) a sustainable index to a ...
2
votes
0answers
44 views
Should we include the industry variables when we control for year*industry fixed effects?
In panel data, we control for firms and years fixed effects even we also have some time-variant firm-level regressors.
I am wondering whether it also happens at the industry level. If it is the case, ...
0
votes
1answer
153 views
Why does the rate of inflation vary over time?
Interest rates have varied significantly over the last 50+ years (source: https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart ).
Is it possible to comprehensively and succinctly ...
0
votes
0answers
14 views
Question on the choice of boundary in the CUSUM test when we make some resampling
Question on the choice of boundary in the CUSUM test when we make some resampling
We are considering to make a CUSUM test for some economical time series $X=(𝑥_1,..,x_n)$. Suppose $X$ contains many ...
1
vote
0answers
26 views
Cross-checking Treasury's Major Foreign Holders Report
I was looking for bad things waiting to happen on the Ides of March, and the next Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities report came up as a candidate. It is due on March 15th, 2021. The report ...
0
votes
1answer
43 views
Fama-French model interpretation of coefficients help
So i've run a regression for a stock and these are the results. I was wondering if I'm right in inferring that because the SMB coefficient is negative, this particular stock I've chosen has a large ...
0
votes
0answers
49 views
What is the Id in the ARIMA model in Notes on financial risk of Privault?
I hope this is the right place to ask this question. I am studying the time series from Privault's Notes on Financial Risks. In the ARIMA model part I can't understand what is "I_d", it is ...
1
vote
0answers
35 views
Examining individual portfolio allocation changes over time
I am currently working with a pretty large panel dataset containing the investment holdings of many individuals over time (i.e., for each individual I know the positions per stock over time). I was ...
-1
votes
1answer
102 views
How to show that a Brownian motion is normally distributed and that the covariance is zero? [closed]
I need help under standing this question. So i have the following given the logarithm of the price of a share of stock is given by
\begin{align*}
p(t)=p(0)+\mu t+\sigma W(t), \quad t \in[0, T]
\end{...
1
vote
1answer
102 views
Looking for a good introduction to modelling ARCH-type models
I am starting to think about my dissertation topic for my undergraduate degree.
I am interested in comparing volatility of stock indices during COVID-19 to the years leading up to the pandemic. I have ...
4
votes
3answers
270 views
Correlation vs. dependence in finance
I found an example that shows how two uncorrelated random variables can be dependent: a normally distributed variable $X$ is not correlated with its square $Y=X^2$. What can be $X$ and what can be $Y$ ...
3
votes
1answer
144 views
Which references would be useful as an introduction to econometrics as it pertains to CONTINUOUS TIME models?
It seems like the problem of trying to estimate model parameters for continuous time models is not commonly covered in standard econometric textbooks, even those focusing on time series. I certainly ...
2
votes
1answer
79 views
Question on the use of a limit in a proof
I ran into a step in an argument that I can't quite figure out. It's basically how they use a limit that I don't seem to understand. The context is local-to-unity asymptotics in vector autoregressions,...
-1
votes
1answer
121 views
Why is Banque de France using BVAR with different orders of integration?
Don't all the variables used have to be of the same order of integration in VAR models ?
In this paper Bayesian VAR Forecasts, Survey Information and Structural Change in the Euro Area Gergely Ganics ...
0
votes
1answer
104 views
Monte Carlo approach and methods for generating random returns
Recently I found myself reading more about Monte Carlo approach in m.v. portfolio optimization framework.
I already discuss the topic on this forum (if interested please consider the following links - ...
1
vote
0answers
58 views
Can you approximate stochastic volatility processes using GARCH processes?
Let me specific. Suppose that you have the following process:
\begin{align}
z_t &= \sigma_t \epsilon_t \\
\sigma_t &= \sigma \exp \left( \frac{v_t}{2} \right)
\end{align}
where $v_t$...
0
votes
1answer
69 views
Is it legitimate to assess the resilience of industries and sectors through the stock market?
I would like to assess the resilience of some sectors in Europe but I honestly lack data, and it seemed to me the simplest solution to be able to implement univariate (arima etc) and multivariate (...
2
votes
0answers
63 views
Applying GRS-test on non-normal residuals with autocorrelation
Is it valid to apply GRS-test (Gibbons, Ross and Shanken 1989) on non-normal and autocorrelated residuals?
I got residuals using 10 test-assets regressed on 3-factor and carhart.
If it is valid, how ...
-2
votes
2answers
195 views
What's the difference between Statistics and Econometrics? [closed]
I can't really grasp the similarities and differences between Statistics and Econometrics.
Is Econometrics includes every Statistical models inside it? or is there areas of Statistics outside of the ...
1
vote
0answers
126 views
CAPM and the Fama-MacBeth (1973)
I need to conduct the Fama-MacBeth (FM) procedure for my thesis to test the ability of the six-factor model to predict future expected returns. In univariate regressions of expected excess returns on ...
9
votes
2answers
669 views
Suppose that we are wrong about the relevant class of distributions for financial economics and econometrics. Now what?
I read a very interesting paper by Harris (2017) where he points out some interesting link between market microstructure and the distribution of returns on equity. You can make a good case that the ...
0
votes
1answer
129 views
What is the R code for estimating copula parameters of BB1 with dim=2? And what's the code for gof test of BB1?
Kindly assist with R code for BB1 copula. Text books and research articles provide codes for clayton, gumbel, frank, normal and t copulas. However, I can't find code for BB1, the copula family ...
0
votes
2answers
239 views
maximum likelihood pdf
I am looking at the topic maximum likelihood, and I cannot understand why we set the pdf of $y_{t}$ equal to 1. It is with regards to a OLS example.
The information i got is this:
Model: $y_{t}=\...
1
vote
1answer
2k views
Forecasting Volatility using GARCH in Python - Arch Package
Disclaimer: Posted this on stackoverflow, but maybe here should be the right place to ask something about GARCH
I'm testing ARCH package to forecast the Variance (Standard Deviation) of two series ...
1
vote
0answers
33 views
Asset prices Boom,Bust and Recovery cycles
Is there any systematic way to detect the Boom, bust and Recovery cycles in Asset Prices ?
Are there any good references about the Topic ?
Thanks in advance.
3
votes
2answers
127 views
Cash flows regression on macroeconomic data
I'm looking into a research project and am struggling to find any existing work on this or whether I'm asking the right question.
My question is to test the relationship between macroeconomic ...
3
votes
1answer
211 views
evaluating garch models
I used ugarchroll to backtest my garch model on S&P returns
this is my code
...
1
vote
0answers
43 views
Correlation coefficient without cash flows?
I'm an intern at a company and one of our tasks is to calculate the the probability of default of both participants of a Swap(a Client and a Bank), for which we first need the correlation coefficient ...
3
votes
2answers
130 views
Using cumulative returns to hedge against the overall trend
I am curious about a hypothetical strategy where you are long for a given period (like a year), and at the same time you hedge against the overall trend by going short everyday and accumulating the ...
2
votes
1answer
276 views
How to calculate Information Ratio?
In the book titled "Active Portfolio Management: A Quantitative Approach for Producing Superior Returns and Controlling Risk" by Grinold & Kahn, the information ratio is defined as "the ratio of ...
2
votes
0answers
45 views
Cointegration between prices and dividends. How do I get the following expression?
Actually, I have two questions:
1.
Let us assume that expected returns are constant. Then, we have the following expression for how the prices should be determined, provided that the operators are ...
2
votes
1answer
221 views
Gibbons, Ross, Shanken Test derivation by MLE
I Am trying to derive the expression for the GRS test of the CAPM. I am following the book: The Econometrics Of Financial Markets by Campbell, Lo, McKinley (1997).
Define $Z_t$ as an $N×1$ vector of ...
1
vote
0answers
590 views
How to normalize stock exchange indexes
I am doing an academic research in behavioral finance and I need to calculate my abnormal return based on the normalized returns of the stock exchange index being the S&P 500. In other words, I ...
0
votes
1answer
83 views
What does A(B) mean in time series
So I have been reading some papers regarding time series, mainly from Granger and Engle. I am a bachelor econometrics student, but I have never seen such notation before. For example, A(B)(1-B)x(t) = -...
4
votes
0answers
310 views
Annualization of higher-order co-moments (coskewness and cokurtosis arrays)
I'm developing a dynamic portfolio optimization procedure based on the implementation of the Modified sharpe ratio. The mentioned ratio depends, among other factors, on the skewness and kurtosis of ...
1
vote
0answers
55 views
Log transformation of TS-stationary time series
I usually see the $log$ transformation of prices: $$p_{new}\left(t\right) = ln\left(\frac{p_t}{p_{t-1}}\right), t \in [2...N]$$.
Let's our series be a trend stationary time series like: $$p\left(t\...
2
votes
0answers
32 views
Tools related to Granger Causality
I would like to know if there are some tools that can measure that one time series is "faster" than the second one. I talk about really similar time series related to high frequency trading (hundreds ...
1
vote
0answers
61 views
Statistical distribution of MACD
I was (unsuccessfully) trying to find results on what the distribution of the MACD values for a stationary time series with IID returns would be. Are there any such results or any that go in a similar ...
1
vote
0answers
33 views
Using CFNAI index for identifying sample periods
I'm doing my Thesis on Asset pricing models and I would like to find out the effects of business cycles on the performance of asset pricing models for industry portfolios.
My initial idea was to ...
4
votes
1answer
65 views
How to prove that the expected squared error associated with the optimal combination weight is smaller than the minimum of 2 forecast variances?
I am looking at linear combination of two forecasts (Bates and Granger, 1969). I would like to understand how to prove that the expected squared error associated with the optimal combination weight is ...
1
vote
0answers
32 views
Statistical procedures on comparing the four Asset pricing models [closed]
I'm a business student and currently writing my thesis on comparing asset pricing models on industry portfolio returns. Being a business student, I lack the knowledge for statistical analysis ; so I ...
1
vote
0answers
34 views
Granger Causality Equation between daily Carry Trade returns and daily Stock Market returns [closed]
Could someone please kindly help me in regards to a question on the Carry Trade.
What is the most widely used equation for the carry trade including the funding and investment currency and what ...
1
vote
0answers
71 views
Fractional cointegration in R
I'm looking for a package (or some code that anyone has written) that will help me to estimate a VECM for fractionally cointegrated series. I.e. like the ca.jo ...
