Questions tagged [econometrics]
The econometrics tag has no usage guidance.
1
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0answers
46 views
Log transformation of TS-stationary time series
I usually see the $log$ transformation of prices: $$p_{new}\left(t\right) = ln\left(\frac{p_t}{p_{t-1}}\right), t \in [2...N]$$.
Let's our series be a trend stationary time series like: $$p\left(t\...
2
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0answers
26 views
Tools related to Granger Causality
I would like to know if there are some tools that can measure that one time series is "faster" than the second one. I talk about really similar time series related to high frequency trading (hundreds ...
1
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0answers
38 views
Statistical distribution of MACD
I was (unsuccessfully) trying to find results on what the distribution of the MACD values for a stationary time series with IID returns would be. Are there any such results or any that go in a similar ...
1
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0answers
29 views
Using CFNAI index for identifying sample periods
I'm doing my Thesis on Asset pricing models and I would like to find out the effects of business cycles on the performance of asset pricing models for industry portfolios.
My initial idea was to ...
4
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1answer
58 views
How to prove that the expected squared error associated with the optimal combination weight is smaller than the minimum of 2 forecast variances?
I am looking at linear combination of two forecasts (Bates and Granger, 1969). I would like to understand how to prove that the expected squared error associated with the optimal combination weight is ...
1
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0answers
28 views
Statistical procedures on comparing the four Asset pricing models [closed]
I'm a business student and currently writing my thesis on comparing asset pricing models on industry portfolio returns. Being a business student, I lack the knowledge for statistical analysis ; so I ...
1
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0answers
29 views
Granger Causality Equation between daily Carry Trade returns and daily Stock Market returns [closed]
Could someone please kindly help me in regards to a question on the Carry Trade.
What is the most widely used equation for the carry trade including the funding and investment currency and what ...
1
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0answers
28 views
Fractional cointegration in R
I'm looking for a package (or some code that anyone has written) that will help me to estimate a VECM for fractionally cointegrated series. I.e. like the ca.jo ...
1
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0answers
39 views
Evaluating Fama French 3 factor model Using Fama Macbeth
Hi Can someone please explain me how the cross sectional calculation can be done.
For an example, I'm having a vector like this.
Vector 1: This is the vector where all the excess returns for n ...
2
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1answer
224 views
Calculating the pricing error in Fama-Macbeth Regression for Fama/French 5 Factor model
I'm very much new to this area and I need to know on how to calculate the pricing error in Fama/French 5-Factor model. The evaluation was done using the Fama-Macbeth approach.
I did everything as ...
1
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0answers
47 views
Arbitrage argument and Market Quotes [closed]
Good day, I wanted to ask for help with a question from one of my exercise sheets.
For a share S the market quotes a given strike K in both european and
american styles. Use an arbitrage ...
0
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2answers
56 views
Testing which index is a better benchmark to track stock prices
Let's say a Hedge Fund is tracking a stock price. Now the fund has three columns of data, Stock price, Index 1, and Index 2. All of these have data from 2016/01/01 - 2017/01/01. If the fund is to ...
0
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0answers
38 views
Why does an increase in eviction court filings result in an increase in REIT returns?
I'm a data mining developer working for a company that wholesales eviction record data on a national level. I was recently assigned a project to build a program to mine all county courts in Oklahoma ...
1
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1answer
87 views
Understand the white noise condition in Vector Autoregression
In the following vector autoregression model with lag polynomial representation:
$$\Phi (L) y_t= \epsilon_t$$
where $Y$ is the vector of endogenous variables, $\Phi$ is the parameters matrix, $\...
1
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1answer
67 views
Using interest rate as a discount factor in dividend discount model
In this paper, Galí and Gambetti calculate the fundamental value of asset price by using policy interest rate as a discount factor. I was wondering if the policy rate can be used in this kind of ...
1
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0answers
55 views
What's the slowest frequency over which bid-ask bounce effect are observed?
I am using minute-by-minute stock prices series constructed on transaction data. The stocks are among the most highly liquid.
I observe that the price series contain negative autocorrelation. I ...
1
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1answer
48 views
Can GARCH volatility simulations generally be applied to return-modelling models?
This may be a naive question, but I still hope some discussion can elucidate a (so far) totally nebulous point for me.
I've recently learned that GARCH models can give one simulations of ...
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0answers
47 views
Trading Signals with Different Lags
I have a momentum signal that gives best predictive power at 3 months and a valuation signal that gives best predictive power at one year. If I combine for a 3 month horizon by "interpolating" the ...
3
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1answer
99 views
End Dates of Financial Crises
I am analyzing past financial crises, comparing the correlation structure amongst 20 broad market indices (equities, FX, credit, commodities) during different crises using amongst other things PCA and ...
4
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2answers
169 views
Lagged Residual as Independent Variable
I am building a factor model to estimate future equity returns. I'd like to include an autoregressive residual term in this model. I'd like to have yesterday's error (the difference between yesterday'...
0
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1answer
35 views
Drop weekend data Vs fill weekend data for GARCH-type modelling
I have a dilemma for an analysis I'm currently on. I doing some GARCH modelling of bitcoin and a fiat currency.
There are some null values with the fiat datasets in comparison with bitcoin data as ...
5
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1answer
231 views
What is the stambaugh bias? Why is it important for predictability regressions?
What is the Stambaugh bias? Why is it important for predictability regressions?
Can anyone explain it in simple terms?
5
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2answers
672 views
What is time-varying risk premium? Forecasting stock returns
I am trying to understand the concept 'Time-varying aggregate risk premium'.
Here is an extract from a Forecasting book, written by Rapach and Zhou,
"However, rational asset pricing theory posits ...
1
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1answer
106 views
Average Return Differential Calculation - Newey West t-Statistic
I am reading Table II on page 28 in Bali et al. (2007), Value at Risk and the Cross-Section of Hedge Fund Returns:
Please can anyone explain the calculation of t-statistic and Newey West t-statistic ...
1
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0answers
83 views
Comparing two models using Wald Test
I would like to use a Wald test to compare two models.
To give a basic example, let:
$Y_{t}=\alpha+{\phi_1x}_{t-1}+{\beta}_{1}x_{t-1}+{\beta}_{2}x_{t-1}+{\beta}_{3}x_{t-1}+\epsilon_t (A)$
$Y_{t}=\...
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0answers
50 views
Good introduction to estimating stochastic diffusion processes?
So, in an advanced Econometrics course, the current topic relates to estimating transition densities and diffusion processes by MLE, such as this R package doc describes, for ex., and I have to admit ...
2
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1answer
2k views
Interpreting the coefficients of Fama-MacBeth regression
According to Fama & MacBeth (1973) two-step regression, you start with estimating the beta factors. When applying the Fama-French 3-Factor model, you first run the linear regression
$$r_{i,t}=α_i+...
3
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1answer
224 views
Criticise GARCH relative to Realized Volatility
I would like to have your opinion about a simple question.
While GARCH would be useful to calculate the conditional volatility, and the RV being in some sense the "historical" volatility, what would ...
15
votes
2answers
205 views
Quantitative features of asset price bubbles beginning
Surprisingly, I've found very little research on this topic. Research papers I've come across propose some simple models to say that asset prices might be in a bubble. Most of the models take these ...
1
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1answer
55 views
Interest rate model with external variables
There are several well-known one-factor interest rate models: Hull-White, Ho-Lee and Black-Derman-Toy just to name a few. There are also multi-factor models such as Longstaff-Schwartz and Chen. But ...
3
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1answer
1k views
How to compute a Fama-Macbeth R-Squared (R2)?
I'm reaching out regarding the R-Squared of a Fama-Macbeth regression. This is often reported in econometric results but I have yet to find a good explanation of how it is computed.
Specifically, if ...
5
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1answer
877 views
Financial economics vs finance [closed]
What is the difference between financial economics and finance? How does affect career options as well as academic opportunities?
6
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1answer
3k views
Fama Mac-Beth (1973) vs Fixed effect
Currently testing if monthly fund characteristics (size, capital flows, age, risk, persistence,...) explain funds abnormal returns.
My data is set as a panel with 1000 equity mutual funds over the ...
3
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2answers
906 views
Choosing the right statistical test for Mutual Fund Performance Evaluation
How do you suggest I do this?
I would like to perform a statistical test to check if:
the aggregate alpha of all funds equals 0.
the aggregate beta of all funds equals 1.
Data
Sample of 1000 ...
1
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1answer
522 views
The R-squared of the four factor model.
Why does papers such as Fama and French (2010) and Barras et al. (2010) construct equal weighted portfolio of all funds when they analyse the aggregate performance of mutual funds?
They both report ...
3
votes
2answers
231 views
Fama and French (market premium) factor
Currently I am using the Fama and French 3 factor model to explain the performance of mutual funds using monthly returns from 2000 to 2017.
I use two market proxies:
(1) RM-RF, obtained directly ...
0
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0answers
38 views
Multi-Variate linear modeling: how to calculate mathematically vs brute force genetic optimization
I have a hand full of daily economic data. I am currently using a brute force approach. Genetic optimization is only used when k is very large. This method is beautiful to me, but isn't valuable ...
-1
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1answer
386 views
Carhart (1997) momentum factor loading
I am evaluating the performance of a sample of 1000 mutual funds over the period 2000 to 2017 using Carhart (1997) four factor model.
As a way to test for robustness, I use two benchmarks. The CRSP ...
0
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1answer
72 views
R-squared increase dramatically when including “time dummy” (STATA)
Currently running a fixed effect panel using STATA. First, I declare data set as panel:
Code: xtset id obs
Where id = 350 firms and obs = 125
Then I run a fixed effect regression:
Code: xtreg y x, ...
0
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2answers
85 views
Disadvantages of large panel
I am currently researching if some fund characteristics such as (fund size, fund family size, capital flows, and fund age) explains fund performance measured (monthly alpha).
Therefore, I am using a ...
1
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1answer
277 views
Predict the behavior of a time series (P&L trading desk)
I work at the trading desk P&L department at a large bank.
The trading desk has positions in almost all sorts of derivatives (options, futures) over a long list of stocks, currencies, commodities.....
1
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1answer
283 views
Granger causality with stocks and CDS
I would like to take a closer look at stock prices and CDS spreads of different entities. Because both of them are nonstationary in levels, I use log stock returns and the first difference of the CDS.
...
4
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1answer
233 views
Panel data - Use fixed effect or random effect in predicting stock returns
I'm currently writing a master thesis where I look at the predictive power of Google search volume in predicting the movement of the Norwegian Stock Market (Oslo Børs). I'm using Google search volume ...
4
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0answers
370 views
Can a stat arb alpha be a global macro alpha?
In academic literature, "statistical arbitrage" is opposed to (deterministic) arbitrage.[1] In deterministic arbitrage, a sure profit can be obtained from being long some securities and short others. ...
3
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0answers
82 views
Why is utility concave?
I have read that the utility function is usually concave. I assume this requirement arises in order to meet the diversification effect:$$f(\lambda_1c_1+\lambda_2c_2)\ge \lambda_2 f(c_1)+\lambda_2f(c_2)...
0
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1answer
200 views
Most GUI user friendly Time series Econometrics software for modelling and Forecasting GARCH models [closed]
I think the question is simple enough. I have been using Eviews, but it is unable to do recursive one step ahead forecasting directly and requires me to use coding, which I'm not very good at.
I need ...
1
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1answer
244 views
Use of ACD to model transaction durations
I am using a simple ACD (autoregressive conditional duration) model with expoential or Burr distributed residuals and 1 lag, i.e. ACD(1,1).
I am modelling durations for transactions data on a 'medium'...
1
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1answer
106 views
How to find relationships between financial data?
Suppose I have a time series of stock growth and one of gdp growth and education over the years.
Can I try to explain stock using gdp and education by running an OLS or would I be mistaken from a ...
1
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1answer
899 views
Which python packages would you recommend for time series analysis?
I am taking a time series analysis class that uses EViews. What packages in python do equivalent work?
0
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1answer
35 views
basic econometric model on country spread methodology
I am doing some research on Germany, France and Spain on their spread.
I would like to try to 'forecast' or 'explain' the the spread on sovreign debt using OLS regression on unemployment and debt ...
