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Questions tagged [econometrics]

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274 views

Panel data - Use fixed effect or random effect in predicting stock returns

I'm currently writing a master thesis where I look at the predictive power of Google search volume in predicting the movement of the Norwegian Stock Market (Oslo Børs). I'm using Google search volume ...
263 views

Fourth moment of ARCH(2)

I am studying the ARCH(2) process given by $$X_t = \sqrt{h_t} \varepsilon_t$$ where $$h_t = \alpha_0 + \alpha_1 X_{t-1} ^2 + \alpha_2 X_{t-2} ^2$$ and $\varepsilon_t$ follows $N(0,1)$. ...
48 views

Annualization of higher order Co-moments

I'm developing a dynamic portfolio optimization procedure based on the implementation of the Modified sharpe ratio. The mentioned ratio depends, among other factors, on the skewness and kurtosis of ...
418 views

Can a stat arb alpha be a global macro alpha?

In academic literature, "statistical arbitrage" is opposed to (deterministic) arbitrage. In deterministic arbitrage, a sure profit can be obtained from being long some securities and short others. ...
228 views

Comprehensive List of Regime Switching/ Change Point Models

I am looking for a comprehensive list of regime switching/change point models/techniques which can be used to model different regimes / change points in financial time series. What I found so far are: ...
31 views

evaluating garch models

I used ugarchroll to backtest my garch model on S&P returns this is my code ...
34 views

Cointegration between prices and dividends. How do I get the following expression?

Actually, I have two questions: 1. Let us assume that expected returns are constant. Then, we have the following expression for how the prices should be determined, provided that the operators are ...
29 views

Tools related to Granger Causality

I would like to know if there are some tools that can measure that one time series is "faster" than the second one. I talk about really similar time series related to high frequency trading (hundreds ...
82 views

45 views

Statistical distribution of MACD

I was (unsuccessfully) trying to find results on what the distribution of the MACD values for a stationary time series with IID returns would be. Are there any such results or any that go in a similar ...
30 views

Using CFNAI index for identifying sample periods

I'm doing my Thesis on Asset pricing models and I would like to find out the effects of business cycles on the performance of asset pricing models for industry portfolios. My initial idea was to ...
38 views

Fractional cointegration in R

I'm looking for a package (or some code that anyone has written) that will help me to estimate a VECM for fractionally cointegrated series. I.e. like the ca.jo ...
58 views

Evaluating Fama French 3 factor model Using Fama Macbeth

Hi Can someone please explain me how the cross sectional calculation can be done. For an example, I'm having a vector like this. Vector 1: This is the vector where all the excess returns for n ...
64 views

What's the slowest frequency over which bid-ask bounce effect are observed?

I am using minute-by-minute stock prices series constructed on transaction data. The stocks are among the most highly liquid. I observe that the price series contain negative autocorrelation. I ...
119 views

Average Return Differential Calculation - Newey West t-Statistic

I am reading Table II on page 28 in Bali et al. (2007), Value at Risk and the Cross-Section of Hedge Fund Returns: Please can anyone explain the calculation of t-statistic and Newey West t-statistic ...
87 views

Comparing two models using Wald Test

I would like to use a Wald test to compare two models. To give a basic example, let: $Y_{t}=\alpha+{\phi_1x}_{t-1}+{\beta}_{1}x_{t-1}+{\beta}_{2}x_{t-1}+{\beta}_{3}x_{t-1}+\epsilon_t (A)$ \$Y_{t}=\...
31 views

Machine Learning Munging - order of transforms? + adding in econometric tests?

I have a list of possible transforms, and I've read some confusing/contradictory stuff about the preferred order in which these operations are performed. Maybe 1) the order is sometimes amorphous, ...
686 views

How to fit exogenous + GARCH Model In Python?

I am studying a textbook of statistics / econometrics, using Python for my computational needs. I have encountered GARCH models and my understanding is that this is a commonly used model. In an ...
224 views

How to decide if the ARCH coefficient is necessary in the GJR-GARCH model?

I did some analysis for CAC 40, the French market benchmark, for the period 2005-2014, and I tried to fit the data with a GJR(1,1) model in MATLAB. Then some warning showed Lower bound ...
119 views

MLE estimate of normal distribution

Probably a naive question. I am quoting this from Greene's econometrics book: "The occasional statement that the properties of the MLE are only optimal in large samples is not true, however. It can ...
28 views

Standard errors clustered along the time dimension in pooled panel logit model

I'm trying to estimate a logit model on pooled panel data set (unit of observation is firm-year). My dependant variable is default indicator and I have several macro variables as independant variables....
81 views

How to value a portfolio of non-mature consumer loans?

I'm looking for the best way to value a portfolio of consumer loans that have NOT reached maturity and for which I do observe the payment/default history to date? I'm working with a large database of ...
633 views

Autoregressive distributed lag models ADL(p,q) howto in preferably matlab (stata/R/python/C# etc)

Could anyone provide me the details of how to determine the lag order of the distributed lags for an ADL(p,q) model in Matlab or another statistical package (and very much preferably in combination ...
105 views

Max Likelihood via Marquardt Optimisation

I asked a related question here: How to apply Levenberg Marquardt to Max Likelihood Estimation I tried the approach suggested it works for some of the parameters but not the variances. I spoke to ...
42 views

Why does an increase in eviction court filings result in an increase in REIT returns?

I'm a data mining developer working for a company that wholesales eviction record data on a national level. I was recently assigned a project to build a program to mine all county courts in Oklahoma ...
52 views

Trading Signals with Different Lags

I have a momentum signal that gives best predictive power at 3 months and a valuation signal that gives best predictive power at one year. If I combine for a 3 month horizon by "interpolating" the ...
52 views

Good introduction to estimating stochastic diffusion processes?

So, in an advanced Econometrics course, the current topic relates to estimating transition densities and diffusion processes by MLE, such as this R package doc describes, for ex., and I have to admit ...