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# Questions tagged [estimation]

The calculated approximation of a result which is usable even if input data may be incomplete or uncertain.

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### Arithmetic Brownian Motion in Market Making papers

We often consider high-frequency market maker and suppose that the reference price is the arithmetic Brownian Motion: $dS_{t} = \sigma d W_t$ What is the difference $t_n - t_{n-1}$ in this case? Is ...
2k views

### Estimating Parameters - Vasicek

The Vasicek model for the short rate $r_t$ is given by the SDE $$dr_t = \alpha(\beta - r_t)dt + \sigma dW_t,$$ where $W_t$ is a Brownian motion under the physical measure. I'd like to compute bond ...
3k views

### Estimating correlation using EWMA

I am using an EWMA model to evaluate the correlation between yearly time series. I know Riskmetrics uses $\lambda=0.94$ for daily data and $\lambda=0.97$ for monthly data. Is there a value ...
187 views

### How to compute a single Value-at-Risk (a single quantile) of portfolio returns taking into account correlation between individual returns?

Introduction My goal is to retrieve a single Value-at-Risk (VaR) of a N(0, H) random variable $X$ at the $\alpha \in (0,1)$ confidence level where H is a known d-dimensional positive definite matrix ...
46 views

### mean reversion model estimation - what method?

how can I estimate this model for mean reversion?
142 views

### Model-Free Option Pricing

From Breeden and Litzenberger (1978) and subsequent work, we may find the risk-neutral density $q_{S_T}$ of $S_T$ from European option prices - assuming there are enough traded options (e.g. SPX) via ...
3k views

### Tools in R for estimating time-varying copulas?

Are there libraries in R for estimating time-varying joint distributions via copulas? Hedibert Lopes has an excellent paper on the topic here. I know there is an existing packaged called copula but ...
59 views

### How is Kalman Filter used to estimate Term structure Models

I am implementing "The Term Structure of Variance Swap Rates and Optimal Variance Swap Investments" . This paper is using kalman filter to estimate the state and the mean variance and a parameters on ...
122 views

### Mean-variance portfolio optimization: methods for superior estimates of returns

Leaving aside the aspects related to the estimation of the variance component (all the latest techniques to compute a stable covariance matrix of a given set of assets such as simple shrinkage, Ledoit-...
49 views

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### How to approximate the Carr-Madan decomposition formula?

I have came across the excellent answer. I'm looking for a dicrete approximation of the Carr-Madan decomposition formula of the function $f(F_T)$ of the terminal futures price by taking a static ...
183 views

### Combine EWMA or ARCH model with estimator other than squared returns

Currently I use the EWMA model with the squared logarithmic returns as proxy estimator for the volatility, in order to forecast the volatility one step ahead in an intraday scenario (time frame is a ...