# Questions tagged [estimation]

The calculated approximation of a result which is usable even if input data may be incomplete or uncertain.

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### Estimation of right truncated poisson process

I have following problem: Imagine I generate large number of homogenous poisson process sample paths (by sample path I mean a sequence of arrival times $\tau_i$ all with the same intensity. However ...
122 views

### What kind of errors arise when I fit ARMA(1,1) to data generated from ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) process?

As far as I know estimates of parameters of ARMA(1,1) are asymptotically optimal when fitted to data from ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) process, and only their variance increase, so when we assume large ...
307 views

### Estimation of ranks of log-returns via copula

I have successfully chosen and estimate a copula for the ranks of the log-returns of my actions. My question is, since I have worked with the ranks instead of directly the log-returns (in order to be ...
173 views

### Model-Free Option Pricing

From Breeden and Litzenberger (1978) and subsequent work, we may find the risk-neutral density $q_{S_T}$ of $S_T$ from European option prices - assuming there are enough traded options (e.g. SPX) via ...
51 views

### How to calculate the estimation error of portfolio variance using propagation results?

I am trying to find a conservative approximation for the propagated estimation error of a investment portfolio's variance (comprising two assets), given we know the estimation error for the variance ...
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### Derivation of variance of Zhou (1996) volatility estimator

Does anyone know how to derive the Variance of Bin Zhou's volatility estimator (Theorem 1) in 'High-Frequency Data and Volatility in Foreign-Exchange Rates' (1996) Zhou 1996 Any help would be ...
211 views

### Should I use Resampling or Expectation Maximization to compute a robust covariance matrix?

I have several assets, each with different return histories. Some of the assets have 75 days of return history, others have 40 or so days. In calculating a robust covariance matrix, should I be using ...
44 views

### Correcting high AR(1) coefficients in dynamic Gordon model

I have just finished my thesis on a heterogeneous dividend expectations model applied to the COVID-19 crisis. However after receiving some feedback there is one last issue I want to resolve. I'm using ...
59 views

### Are intraday volatility estimators useful for close-to-close predictions

I am interested in predicting the PnL of a gamma scalping strategy which trades only once per day. For simplicity, let's say we can always trade at the daily close. So, what I need to predict are the ...
63 views

### Beta estimates of Regressions on AR(1) Process

I am currently working through the paper The Myth of Long-Horizon Predictability  and I got stuck in reproducing the empirical results in Section 1.4. It is my understanding that time series of ...
121 views

### GARCH(1,1)-M MLE optimization with fmincon in R

I've searched thru dozens of papers and did not find in any of them satisfying and enough theoretical answers to my concerns. So I've combined everything what I found below. Please indicate if my ...
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### fiscal period end date

If a quarterly report is released tomorrow, is there any way to figure out the date the quarterly period ended without manually researching? Such as an API? I think there is a deadline of 35/60 ...
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### Estimating an GARCH(1,1) model? Long hand method

I am really trying to invest some time to estimate a GARCH(1,1) method, I know there is many statistical packages that will do this for me (Eviews, MATLAB, R), but I am trying to do this by hand, so ...
25 views

### Sample distribution of cross-sectional statistics of returns

Currently doing an application of VaR on sample of industry portfolios in the US. I have a matrix of $n$ industry portfolios with $m$ time-series observations. I calculate cross-sectionally (for each ...
296 views

### How accurate are Black-Scholes estimates of Vega, Volga, Vanna

Wikipedia provides analytical formulas for calculating Greeks. I can get Delta, Gamma, Theta all from Bloomberg. I need Vega, Volga, Vanna for my research. Should I use these analytical formulas for ...
373 views

### Fama French- typical time lag

I have daily prices of 400 stocks for the last 10 years. I have to create each month a portfolio of 20 stocks that minimizes variance with 2 approaches: 1) Estimate volatility with a GARCH(1,1) model ...
51 views

### How to estimate bond price returns via an index?

Let's say I have a corporate bond, for which I know current yield, modified duration, coupon and maturity. I want to estimate how it would have performed under certain market conditions by looking at ...
239 views

### Relationship between in-sample and out-sample periods length

I have two general questions regarding "in-sample fitting vs. out-of-sample backtesting" kind of analyses. Is there any relationship between the length of the data collected for in-sample fitting ($a$)...
2k views

### Skewed Generalized Error Distribution's (SGED) pdf

I want to use the SGED distribution of Theodossiou for GARCH estimation, however, I am struggling to understand which is the correct pdf function of the distribution. Let me just say that the ...
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### What are the estimation methods for SV models?

I want to know about some methods like Methods-of-Moments, Quasi-Maximum Likelihood method, Baysian methods using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Is there any reference to have an idea of these ...
108 views

### Derivation of a ML estimator

I have the following likelihood function: I'm given this information about the $\Omega$ matrix ($\boldsymbol{1}$ is a $T \times 1$ vector of ones): I would like to be able to show that the ...
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### Black Scholes model calibration

the only parameter in the Black Scholes model that needs to be estimated is the volatility. Which approach is correct: Estimation of volatility from daily log returns Estimating volatility by ...