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Questions tagged [expected-return]

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2
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1answer
82 views

Mean-variance portfolio optimization: methods for superior estimates of returns

Leaving aside the aspects related to the estimation of the variance component (all the latest techniques to compute a stable covariance matrix of a given set of assets such as simple shrinkage, Ledoit-...
13
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1answer
798 views

Portfolios from Sorts

Some time ago Almgren and Chriss proposed a method for portfolio optimization based on sorting criteria such as $r_1 > r_2 >... > r_N$ instead of explicit expected returns: see portfolios ...
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38 views

Deriving Single Index Model (Market Model)

is the return of the stock of observation is the return of the reference market is the regression coefficient between the observed stock and the reference market is the regression intercept between ...
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0answers
40 views

Calculate best share based on return of investement and standard devation (Without risk free rate)

I have a microeconomics task in investment analysis. How do you pick the best share based on return of investment and standard deviations? The task is like this: 3 shares: Share A: 10% ROI & 20% ...
2
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1answer
69 views

Mean-variance maximization

I denote by $W_0$ and $W_1$ the wealth of an investor at $t=0$ and $t=1$, respectively. Let $r_f$ be the risk free rate, $r$ the vector of returns of the risky assets in excess of the risk free rate, ...
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1answer
134 views

How to perform cross-sectional asset pricing regression?

I'm wondering is that possible to get insignificant beta estimates in the time-series context, but highly significant risk premium associated with that beta in the cross-sectional regression? Any ...
2
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1answer
53 views

Is it possible to calculate the equity required (or expected) return using Black-Scholes option pricing model?

I know the method of calculating the equity value as a European call option (using Black-scholes formula). My question is: Is it possible to calculate the expected (or required) return of equity when ...
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0answers
32 views

Investment evaluation benchmarks

I am writing software to aid in the evaluation of investment projects. Specifically, property based as a first step. I know about NPV and IRR and IRR feels like the best measure. So it gives me a ...
1
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1answer
702 views

Proof of the convexity adjustment formula

Let $y_0$ be the forward bond yield observed today for a forward contract with maturity $T$, $y_T$ be the bond yield at time $T$, $B_T$ be the price of the bond at time $T$ and let $\sigma_y$ be the ...
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41 views

Are the explanatory factors for a firm's expected returns and its expected earnings/valuation multiples the same?

For example, the 3 factor Fama French model explains much of the cross-sectional variation in equity returns. Would these same 3 factors also explain the cross sectional variation in earnings/EV to ...
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0answers
97 views

Black Litterman - numerical instability

I am trying to work out the formula for the posterior mean in Black Litterman's model assuming 100% confidence : Ref: https://corporate.morningstar.com/ib/documents/MethodologyDocuments/IBBAssociates/...
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2answers
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What are the assumptions in the first-stage of Fama-MacBeth (1973)?

According to the CAPM, the expected return of asset $i$ is: $E(Z_i) = \beta_{im} E(Z_m)$ where $Z_m$ is the excess return on the market portfolio, and $Z_i$ is the excess return of asset $i$ over ...
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2answers
247 views

Interpretation of Excess Return

How is excess return defined for a given asset? There are altogether two different definitions for excess return used in the calculation of alpha and beta and I'm unable to understand which one ...
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9answers
5k views

Why the expected return rate of a stock has nothing to do with its option price?

OK, I admit that this is a frequently asked question. But I couldn't find a satisfying answer after I read the explanations of books, went through the derivations of B-S formula, and searched answers ...
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3answers
225 views

Where to find good notations to teach investment portfolio maths?

I don't know whether this question is in order here. I do a bit of teaching and I am preparing my own notes but I thought that his should not be necessary. In which book/pdf on the web can we find a ...
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2answers
101 views

Intuitive explanation of geometric mean

Suppose that the 10 Year Treasury Yield Rate varies every trading day during the year X1 (which in practice is accurate) what is the intuitive explanation behind calculating the geometric mean using ...
0
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1answer
147 views

How do you interpret a positive portfolio weight (when using CAPM and CML to calculate efficient portfolios)

I am asked to solve the following homework question: Risk free rate: 2% Expected excess return on market portfolio: 8% Standard deviation of market portfolio: 20% The efficient portfolio has the ...
0
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1answer
51 views

Returns on actively trading bonds compared to equity?

Long term equities outperform bonds (equity premium puzzle). However this kind of misses the nature of returns: in equity it is mostly the total return from "the principal" (and a little from ...
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1answer
94 views

Derivation of arithmetic variation of a portfolio over multiple periods [closed]

I am very confused on how to derive the attached equation (15). Would someone be kind enough to walk me through the proof?
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1answer
97 views

Why should we care if the “squares of returns are independently distributed over time” to choose an adequate model of the distribution of returns?

In a Time Series Book by Hashem Pesaran, he mentions that there are a number of issues that need to be addressed in order to choose an adequate model for predicting asset returns. I understand the ...
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2answers
175 views

Questions on continuously compounded return vs long term expected return

I have reading a paper from Oliver Grandville on long term expected return. I am trying to reconcile what I am reading in that paper vs what I see under "Application to Stock Market" in Kelly ...
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0answers
37 views

Variance Equations is missing definition

here: https://www.nrc.gov/docs/ML1208/ML12088A329.pdf Campbell, Lo, Mackinlay: The Econometrics of Financial Markets on page 159 i am looking at equation 4.4.9 in the last line, = $I\sigma_{\...
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1answer
111 views

How can risk-neutral pricing find the right price for securities if it doesn't account for risk premia?

I'm confused as to how a method that values securities purely on their expected return works in the real world if it doesn't take into account the fact that investors demand a higher return for ...
0
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1answer
101 views

Get expected joint-payoff price of digital options from individual payoffs

I am trying to model a joint distribution $f(X_1,X_2)$ (where $X_1$ and $X_2$ are market prices of the options) and then find from it the value of joint payoff price: $F(X_1, X_2; B_1, B_2) = E[ ...
0
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1answer
107 views

How to calculate daily return including fees?

I have a trading strategy that closes one position on an asset and open a new position on a different asset every day at noon. No more than one position is open at a single time. Assets are crypto ...
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1answer
752 views

Explain Four Basic Axioms of Maximising Expected Utility

I begin learn PRM , Someone help me understand Four Basic Axioms of Maximising Expected Utility most intuitive way .Thank you very much
2
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1answer
173 views

Expected option return in MATLAB

The expected return of an option is given by its expected payoff under $P$ over its market price under $Q$. For the Black-Scholes model, expected call option return is given as (see here): $$ E(R)=\...
1
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1answer
59 views

Implied Expected Stock Return from European Option Prices

We can calculate the expected stock return (under the measure $Q$) from at-the-money ($K=S_t$) option prices as: $$E\left(\frac{S_T-S_t}{S_t}\right)=\frac{e^{rT}}{S_t}(C_t-P_t)$$ The result is ...
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0answers
38 views

Polynomial interpolation of corrected lognormal distribution

Can anyone provide a formula for a polynomial interpolation of the corrected lognormal distribution used to model returns traditionally resulting from the wrong Brownian motion generated model? ...
0
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1answer
45 views

Which rate of return to use in portfolio weight estimation?

I am learning the basics of portfolio management. I am confused about different ways to calculate rate of returns mentioned in the text investment and portfolio analysis. There are three methods to ...
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0answers
65 views

Calculating expected annual returns [closed]

An economy contains these three assets: Asset A has standard deviation of returns (per annum) of 25% and market capitalisation $600m Asset B has standard deviation of 20%, market capitalisation $...
2
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1answer
326 views

Understanding CAPM, CML, and efficient portfolios

I'm trying to understand the CAPM model and how we can use it to understand efficient portfolios. Specfically, I'm trying to use the CML line (mapping expected returns and standard deviations of ...
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0answers
208 views

Cross-sectional Regression: Using calculated coefficient of first regression for a second regression as dependent variable

Hello stackexchange community! I am new to R and econometrics and and stuck in a step of the fama-macbeth (1973) regression, in which risk premia of stocks are estimated with a two-step regression ...
0
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1answer
68 views

how to find the weights in a portfolio? [closed]

Compute the weights in a portfolio consisting of two kinds of stocks if the expected return on the portfolio is to be $E(K_v)=10\%$, given the following information on the returns on stock 1 and 2: $$ ...
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3answers
2k views

How are distributions for tail risk measures estimated in practice?

Let's say you want to calculate a VaR for a portfolio of 1000 stocks. You're really only interested in the left tail, so do you use the whole set of returns to estimate mean, variance, skew, and shape ...
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2answers
463 views

Intuitive explanation of stochastic portfolio theory

Fernholz and Karatzas have published various papers about so called stochastic portfolio theory. Basically they say that the return to be expected from a portfolio on the long run is rather the ...
1
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1answer
394 views

Differences between dummy regression event study and regression on residuals from market model

I have two different event study approaches and I wonder if the results are exactly the same. Model 1 applies a dummy regression market model: (1) $R_{t}=\beta_{0} + \beta_{1}R_{mt}+\beta_{2}D_{t}+\...
0
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1answer
519 views

Is it OK to consider the expected return is zero for stocks when calculating VaR over a short horizon?

I want to implement the approach described in the following recipe for calculating VaR: Is there a step-by-step guide for calculating portfolio VaR using monte carlo simulations I was told that I can ...
2
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1answer
31 views

Distress firms and cross section returns

In George and Hwang's 2010 JFE paper, they are trying to resolve the so called distress risk and leverage puzzles. This is their explanation: This is a puzzle because high distress intensity or ...
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3answers
2k views

How to model the daily return using intraday data?

Say, I have hourly returns $r_1,r_2,...,r_T$, where $r_t$ = $ln(p_t)$ - $ln(p_0)$ for $t = 1...T$. So what is the value of $E[r_t]$? Would $r_T$ be the $\prod{(r_t)}$? Basically $r_t$s are the ...
2
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1answer
307 views

Delta derivation from the expectation

I'm trying to understand the following transformation leading to Delta $\frac{dC}{dx} = e^{-r\tau} \mathbb{E}[ \frac{\partial}{\partial x}\text{max}(xY-K,0)] = e^{-r\tau} \mathbb{E}[Y \textbf{1}(xY&...
3
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1answer
2k views

How to estimate market integration parameter in Singer-Terhaar model for E(r)?

Singer-Terhaar is part of CFA II and III curriculum. It estimates risk premium for some asset, traded at some local market, as weighted average of expected premiums for the case of (1) local market, ...
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2answers
236 views

Has automated trading produced profits at IEX?

Is there evidence that automated trading is profitable on the latency-enforced portion of the exchange? On the one hand, if automated trading was profitable when these limits existed naturally, it ...
1
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1answer
440 views

What is an appropriate algorithm to use for tax loss harvesting?

I've been reading into how Betterment and Wealthfront have architected their tax loss harvesting algorithms, but they stop short of providing any real examples. Essentially, they both reduce to: <...
2
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1answer
216 views

Computing the minimum variance portfolio

Given two risky assets and their corresponding covariance matrix, how do I compute the global minimum variance portfolio, its standard deviation and its expected return?
2
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2answers
234 views

2 stocks, no shorting vs shorting. (concrete questions, mean-variance)

I'd appreciate help with the following questions. Suppose there are two stocks $A$ and $B$ with expected returns $E_A, E_B >0$ and volatilities $v_A, v_B >0$, respectively . Also, suppose ...
3
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1answer
530 views

Call option on a Mutual Fund

I am trying to price a call option on a mutual fund. Given the lack of market implied data, I am going to estimate the fund´s expected volatility using as a reference its historical volatility (...
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0answers
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Characterizing relation “ has no less information than” between information systems represented by Markovian matrices

I crossposted this question on math.stackexchange. Background: Suppose that an investor's utility is both determined by the state and her action taken. A fact of life is that she can't observe the ...
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0answers
323 views

Correlation between idiosyncratic residuals and forward returns

The classic mean-reversion strategy is to calculate an "expected return" (alpha) by computing the raw return for each security and then remove the part which you think is market driven. Statistically ...
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5answers
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What methods do you use to improve expected return estimates when constructing a portfolio in a mean-variance framework?

One of the main problems when trying to apply mean-variance portfolio optimization in practice is its high input sensitivity. As can be seen in (Chopra, 1993) using historical values to estimate ...