# Questions tagged [expected-return]

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### Polynomial interpolation of corrected lognormal distribution

Can anyone provide a formula for a polynomial interpolation of the corrected lognormal distribution used to model returns traditionally resulting from the wrong Brownian motion generated model? ...
47 views

### Characterizing relation “ has no less information than” between information systems represented by Markovian matrices

I crossposted this question on math.stackexchange. Background: Suppose that an investor's utility is both determined by the state and her action taken. A fact of life is that she can't observe the ...
347 views

### Correlation between idiosyncratic residuals and forward returns

The classic mean-reversion strategy is to calculate an "expected return" (alpha) by computing the raw return for each security and then remove the part which you think is market driven. Statistically ...
55 views

### Is it possible to calculate the equity required (or expected) return using Black-Scholes option pricing model?

I know the method of calculating the equity value as a European call option (using Black-scholes formula). My question is: Is it possible to calculate the expected (or required) return of equity when ...
63 views

### Under Put-Call Parity, why do we add the cost of carry to Call prices but subtract them from the Stock price and Put prices?

In Natenberg (1994) Chapter 11 he outlines the Put-Call parity relationships. ...
110 views

### Black Litterman - numerical instability

I am trying to work out the formula for the posterior mean in Black Litterman's model assuming 100% confidence : Ref: https://corporate.morningstar.com/ib/documents/MethodologyDocuments/IBBAssociates/...
363 views

### Cross-sectional Regression: Using calculated coefficient of first regression for a second regression as dependent variable

Hello stackexchange community! I am new to R and econometrics and and stuck in a step of the fama-macbeth (1973) regression, in which risk premia of stocks are estimated with a two-step regression ...
63 views

### Detrending market data to calculate expected return (ER)

I'm a complete newbie so please be kind. I'm reading Evidence-Based Technical Analysis: Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals by David Aronson And I'm ...
17 views

### Results of Fama french three factors model and Fama MacBeth cross sectional regression

I am doing research work on “Idiosyncratic volatility and stock return”. I have calculated Idiosyncratic volatility with the help of Fama french three factor model. IV is defined as the standard ...
62 views

### portfolio return, sharpe ratio and value at risk

Can you please help me to confirm if my calculations are correct or need improvement, or (too simplistic...) : - portfolio return, - portfolio standard deviation, - portfolio sharpe ratio - ...
62 views

### Options trade - statistically expected return calculation?

I am calculating expected return for composite option strategies based on event probabilities provided by the broker. For example, consider the following spread On the left hand side we see: maximal ...
142 views

### Deriving Single Index Model (Market Model)

$R_{it}=\alpha_i+\beta_i\cdot R_{mkt}+\epsilon_{it}$ $R_{it}$ is the return of the stock of observation $R_{mkt}$ is the return of the reference market $\beta_i$ is the regression coefficient between ...
46 views

### Are the explanatory factors for a firm's expected returns and its expected earnings/valuation multiples the same?

For example, the 3 factor Fama French model explains much of the cross-sectional variation in equity returns. Would these same 3 factors also explain the cross sectional variation in earnings/EV to ...