# Questions tagged [expected-return]

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### What methods do you use to improve expected return estimates when constructing a portfolio in a mean-variance framework?

One of the main problems when trying to apply mean-variance portfolio optimization in practice is its high input sensitivity. As can be seen in (Chopra, 1993) using historical values to estimate ...
2k views

### How are distributions for tail risk measures estimated in practice?

Let's say you want to calculate a VaR for a portfolio of 1000 stocks. You're really only interested in the left tail, so do you use the whole set of returns to estimate mean, variance, skew, and shape ...
6k views

### How does left tail risk differ from right tail risk?

How does left tail risk differ from right tail risk? In what context would an analyst use these metrics?
806 views

### Portfolios from Sorts

Some time ago Almgren and Chriss proposed a method for portfolio optimization based on sorting criteria such as $r_1 > r_2 >... > r_N$ instead of explicit expected returns: see portfolios ...
1k views

### What is the expected return I should use for the momentum strategy in MV optimization framework?

As all research on the momentum strategies are focused on the indicator, i.e. the entry point, there seems not much discussion on its expected return? Though there are some discussions on the exit ...
5k views

### Why the expected return rate of a stock has nothing to do with its option price?

OK, I admit that this is a frequently asked question. But I couldn't find a satisfying answer after I read the explanations of books, went through the derivations of B-S formula, and searched answers ...
1k views

99 views

### Black Litterman - numerical instability

I am trying to work out the formula for the posterior mean in Black Litterman's model assuming 100% confidence : Ref: https://corporate.morningstar.com/ib/documents/MethodologyDocuments/IBBAssociates/...
98 views

### Why should we care if the “squares of returns are independently distributed over time” to choose an adequate model of the distribution of returns?

In a Time Series Book by Hashem Pesaran, he mentions that there are a number of issues that need to be addressed in order to choose an adequate model for predicting asset returns. I understand the ...
66 views

### Calculating expected annual returns [closed]

An economy contains these three assets: Asset A has standard deviation of returns (per annum) of 25% and market capitalisation $600m Asset B has standard deviation of 20%, market capitalisation$...
236 views

### Cross-sectional Regression: Using calculated coefficient of first regression for a second regression as dependent variable

Hello stackexchange community! I am new to R and econometrics and and stuck in a step of the fama-macbeth (1973) regression, in which risk premia of stocks are estimated with a two-step regression ...
175 views

### Questions on continuously compounded return vs long term expected return

I have reading a paper from Oliver Grandville on long term expected return. I am trying to reconcile what I am reading in that paper vs what I see under "Application to Stock Market" in Kelly ...
259 views

### Interpretation of Excess Return

How is excess return defined for a given asset? There are altogether two different definitions for excess return used in the calculation of alpha and beta and I'm unable to understand which one ...
555 views

### Is it OK to consider the expected return is zero for stocks when calculating VaR over a short horizon?

I want to implement the approach described in the following recipe for calculating VaR: Is there a step-by-step guide for calculating portfolio VaR using monte carlo simulations I was told that I can ...
236 views

### Has automated trading produced profits at IEX?

Is there evidence that automated trading is profitable on the latency-enforced portion of the exchange? On the one hand, if automated trading was profitable when these limits existed naturally, it ...
52 views

### Returns on actively trading bonds compared to equity?

Long term equities outperform bonds (equity premium puzzle). However this kind of misses the nature of returns: in equity it is mostly the total return from "the principal" (and a little from ...
102 views

### Get expected joint-payoff price of digital options from individual payoffs

I am trying to model a joint distribution $f(X_1,X_2)$ (where $X_1$ and $X_2$ are market prices of the options) and then find from it the value of joint payoff price: \$F(X_1, X_2; B_1, B_2) = E[ ...