Questions tagged [expected-value]

The tag has no usage guidance.

Filter by
Sorted by
Tagged with
3
votes
0answers
30 views

Infinitesimal Generators and Expectation of First Hitting Time as Solution of Differential Equation

I've been learning about Linear Diffusions and how their infinitesimal generators can be used to relate expectations and deterministic differential equations. Let $X$ be an one-dimensional diffusion ...
2
votes
0answers
14 views

Limit of conditional expectations (when limit linked to the conditionning)

I am working with conditional expectations and am trying to derive a limit property. Consider $(Y_n)_{n \in \mathbb{N}}$ a sequence of square integrable random variables, that converge in $L^2$ to a ...
1
vote
1answer
65 views

Properties of integrated GBM

(I asked this question on MSE but I think it might have more success here) Good day, I was going over some exercises and I stumbled upon a question that, for its solution, requires me to find/...
0
votes
0answers
29 views

Intuitive explanation for - Shreve Vol 1 Ch 3 Lemma 3.2.6

I need help in getting a more intuitive understanding of this lemma 3.2.6 in Vol 1 of Shreve's Stochastic Calculus for Finance: Here, in the context of multi-period binomial pricing model, Y is a ...
0
votes
0answers
23 views

Order of expectation versus expectation of order (error terms in Taylor expansion)

Given a payoff function $F(X)$ of a random variable $X$, and a Taylor expansion of $F(X)$ around $X=a$, then the expecation of $F(X)$ can be written as $$ E[F(X)] = F(a) + E[ O((X-a))] $$ Under what ...
1
vote
1answer
41 views

How to Evaluate Expected Value powered 4 of a Wiener Process?

Since $X(t_j) - X(t_{j-1})$ is Normally distributed with mean zero and variance $t/n$ we have $$ \operatorname{E} [(X(t_j) - X(t_{j-1}))^2 ] = \frac{t}{n} \tag{1}$$ and $$ \operatorname{E} [(X(t_j) - ...
1
vote
0answers
73 views

Expected value and variance of the stock log-returns under Local Volatility framework

I want to calculate the expected value and the variance of the stock process log-returns in the Local Volatility setting (and the realized/terminal correlation but let us begin in the one-dimentional ...
0
votes
0answers
28 views

How to approximate expectation and variance of an integral from a discrete Time series financial dataset?

I have discrete time series financial data, with time($u$), price($S$) and someVariable($q$) which looks something like this. ...
0
votes
1answer
110 views

What's the expected value of a repeated game with 50% chance to win 0.5 and 50% to lose 0.5?

Assume we start with 1. In the first bet the expected value of remained balance is 1.5 * 0.5 + 0.5 * 0.5 = 1 For N times, is it still 1 according to E(XYZ)=E(X)E(Y)E(Z)? But 1.5^50 * 0.5^50 is not 1. ...
1
vote
1answer
77 views

Determining the No Arbitrage price of max[B(T), S(T)]

Following is given, $dB(t)=rB(t)dt$ $dS(t)= (r-\delta)S(t)dt+\sigma S(t)dW(t)$ where, $r$ is the risk-free interest rate, $\delta$ the continous dividend yield $\sigma$ is the stock asset ...
3
votes
1answer
278 views

How to calculate the mean and variance of this Ito integral?

I tried to calculate this integral use Ito's lemma, $W_{t}$ is the Wiener Process. $$I_{T}=\int_{0}^{T}\sqrt{|W_{t}|}dW_{t}$$ We have $d f\left(W_{t}\right)=f^{\prime}\left(W_{t}\right) d W_{t}+\...
3
votes
1answer
81 views

Proof that we can price any derivative as the discounted value of its expected return under the risk neutral measure

I am reading a paper which tries to convey the intuition behind the Black-Scholes pricing formula. In that paper, the author states the following two things without proof, and I would like to know why ...
3
votes
1answer
116 views

How to calculate the expected stock returns for an individual stock?

I know about CAPM. My question is if this method is also viable: Calculate monthly logReturns ...
0
votes
1answer
53 views

Condition expectation calculation examples and theory [closed]

I want to ask you an advice about reading theory and examples of conditional expectation and conditional variance. I want to have my understanding deeper, because sometimes I can't understand ...
3
votes
1answer
94 views

Expected value of stochastic optimization

I have a optimization problem where the SDE is: $$ dX(t) = [X(t)(u(t)-\beta(t))+\theta(t)]dt+X(t)u(t)\sigma dW(t), t \in [0,T], X(0) = X_0 $$ where $\beta(t)$ and $\theta(t)$ are deterministic ...
1
vote
1answer
122 views

change of measure expectation

How to find expectation of this stochastic process? Also, to show that the expectation of a stochastic process expression [Xt - St] in one measure is equal to expectation of another expression (of the ...
0
votes
1answer
207 views

Reference material (EV/ betting game questions) for Quant Hedge Funds Interviews [closed]

I need material to practice EV games questions.But I lack practice in betting questions where a set-up of a game is given and one has to respond to the best strategy or best bet to take. A good book ...
1
vote
1answer
80 views

Expectation and variance of standard brownian motion

Assuming that the price of the stock follows the model $ S(t) = S(0) exp ( mt − (σ^2/ 2) t + σW(t) ) , $ where W(t) is a standard Brownian motion; σ > 0, S(0) > 0, m are some ...
1
vote
1answer
259 views

Can the value of a swaption at any time become more negative than the swaption premium?

I am interpolating swaption values as a function of parallel shifts in interest rate and have come across some peculiar shaped options among the data I have at hand. Here is an example of a simple ...
1
vote
1answer
79 views

How to check if $ E [\exp \{ \int_0^t \frac{Y_u^2}{1+Y_u^2}du \}]< \infty $

$dY_t=2Y_tdt+2\sqrt{1+Y_t^2}dW_t$ where $W_t$ is $P-$Brownian motion (Wiener process). I have defined a new measure $Q$ where the Kernel density (In Girsanov theorem) is $$ \phi_t = \frac{Y_t}{\sqrt{...
2
votes
0answers
411 views

Expectation of option value

Say we are in a BS world where the (conditional on t) price of a call is given by the usual $$V(S_t)=V(S_t;K,r,\sigma,T|F_t) = \Phi(d_1)S_t - \Phi(d_2)Ke^{-r(T-t)}$$ Now, what about the ...
-1
votes
2answers
81 views

Fourth moment of a itos integral

$I(t)=\int_0^t \sqrt sdW_s$ What is $E(I(t)^4)$
3
votes
0answers
716 views

Properties of Geometric Brownian Motion Integrated w.r.t. Time (i.e., distribution of a Yor Process)

Let $S_t$ be a process which follows a Geometric Brownian Motion: $\frac{dS_\tau}{S_\tau} = \mu \,d\tau + \sigma \,dW_\tau$ By Ito's lemma, we have: $S_T = S_t e^{(\mu-{\sigma^2 \over 2})(T-t) + \...
3
votes
1answer
740 views

Intuitive explanation for expectiles

I am looking for an intuitive explanation for expectiles. Here is a link to a paper about expectiles: Bellini and Di Bernardino: Risk Management with Expectiles, European Journal of Finance, May ...
1
vote
1answer
2k views

Expected Value of Stochastic Process

Given the following stochastic process: $$ dX = a(X,t)dt + b(X,t)dz $$ where: $$ dz = A \sqrt{dt}$$ and $A$ is a random variable with mean zero and variance $1$. Is there a way to calculate the ...
1
vote
1answer
378 views

Write expectation of brownian motion conditional on filtration as an integral?

Let $W_t$ be a Brownian motion, so $W_t=z_t \sqrt{t}$ where $z_t \in N(0,1)$ and the pdf of $z$ is $f(z)=\frac{e^{-\frac{z^2}{2}}}{\sqrt{2\pi}}$. So $$E(W_t)=\int_{-\infty}^{\infty} W_t f(z) dz =\...
8
votes
2answers
485 views

Why is logarithmic mean equal to the arithmetic expectation less one-half its variance?

I've taken it as gospel that the following equality is true: $$\mathbb{E}[\mu_x] = m_x - \frac{1}{2}\sigma_x^2 $$ where: $\mathbb{E}[\mu_x]$ is the expected value of the logarithmic mean of some ...