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# Questions tagged [forecast]

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1answer
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### Forecasting a seasonal series with R

I am working with the program "R". I used the command "seas (X-13)" to deseasonalize my quarterly series, then I did the forecast with it. Therefore my forecast is in deseasonalized terms. Now, I was ...
1answer
38 views

### How to interpret the accuracy result of the forecaste?

I'm trying to forecast the vacancy rate of multifamily rental property. I have the data from 1992 until today. I'm trying to fit a model with the serie without the last 2 observations. I only need ...
2answers
2k views

### What is the difference between squared returns and variance?

I am trying to calculate 1-day ahead volatility forecasts using the exponentially weighted moving average, however I am unsure on how to read the formula provided within Risk-Metrics Technical ...
1answer
57 views

### ARIMA vs ARIMA + GARCH [closed]

If an ARIMA model converges quickly, would using GARCH improve the forecast performance? By improve I mean provide longer time periods for forecasts. Basically trying to forecast returns.
0answers
129 views

1answer
117 views

### cubic spline in excel with month, quarter and year inputs

Using Excel, how could I calculate a cubic spline curve in monthly granularity when my inputs are a combination of months, quarters and years? The quarter and yearly averages of the spline curve need ...
0answers
81 views

### Transformation of GARCH Equation to multiple-day Forecast Equation

I want to understand the procedure of how to predict with the GARCH Modell. Therefore it is said that a one day ahead forecast is easy due to the fact that the GARCH equation can produce this. ...
1answer
269 views

### Consensus Forecast Data for NFP

Does anybody know where I can get historical consensus forecast data for Non-forma Payroll (NFP)? Or any forecast data for NFP. Thanks,
1answer
262 views

### Question regarding volatility forecasting using High Frequency Data

Hi guys this is my first question on the Quantitative Finance section of the Stack Exchange network. I am currently reviewing the paper by Professor Alan E. Speight and David G. McMillan 'Daily FX ...
2answers
105 views

### How to assign n day target variables in machine learning

I am trying to forecast future price using supervised machine learning. My logic is to take open and close price from t, t-1, t-2 and t-3 period to predict future close price in the period t+1,t+3 ...
1answer
127 views

### Forecasting sales from balance sheet data

I have got a database with balance sheet and income statement data of 150.000 firms for the period 1995-2014. I need to get a good forecast of each firm's sales. As exogenous variables I can use the ...
2answers
271 views

### Forecast of volatility

What are the well known methods for forecasting (daily - weekly - monthly) volatility of a stock price? How about a bond price? Let's say I have in my disposition the price time series at a very high ...
1answer
382 views

### ARIMA Forecasting always converges?

I read an article about arima forecasting and i said that before we forecast arima model, its stationarity has to be checked. If the model is stationary, it is clear that forecasting converges to ...
2answers
876 views

### Forecasting problem with Geometric Brownian Motion in Wolfram Mathematica

I'm a full time undergraduate student from Peru, and I'm trying to use the Geometric Brownian Motion example used in the help section from Wolfram Mathematica in order to forecast future stock prices,...
1answer
75 views

### Is it likely that banks would become clients of algotrading companies? [closed]

Algotrading is growing, while banks don't currently have the HR to continually develop sophisticated algorithms on their own. Is it likely that banks (and governments) would become clients of ...
1answer
615 views

### Can I do a GARCH model to forecast a time series?

I read this paper https://research.aston.ac.uk/portal/files/240393/AURA_2_unmarked_Energy_demand_and_price_forecasting_using_wavelet_transform_and_adaptive_forecasting_models.pdf the two authors ...
1answer
1k views

### Forecast 3m LIBOR USD. Budget purpose

How can I calculate/budget/find a expectation for the 3 month LIBOR for the next 3monts-4 years? I am calculating a CF scenario on USD 3month Libor + margin. With swaps and fixed rate this is easy, ...
2answers
133 views

### Infinite autocorrelation - Unit root?

I have a time series of gold prices, on which I want to build an ARIMA model. The series is autocorrelated and if I can difference as often as I want, it always is. First: data: d1gold Dickey-Fuller ...
0answers
274 views

### Optimal Position Size with Transaction Costs given Forecast Mean and StDev

I have rather a challenging question. I'm hoping that someone can share their experience. I will build up the problem in steps. Let's start our thinking with the idea of a buy and hold strategy of ...
0answers
121 views

### Combining Mulitple Forecasts? Budged Constraints?

I'm hoping that someone can lend a hand. I have been reading various papers on how to combine multiple forecast time series. The main paper is Granger and Bates 1969. The suggestion here is that there ...