Questions tagged [futures]

Questions about futures contracts

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6
votes
3answers
466 views

What is the appropriate benchmark for a Long/Short VIX futures strategy?

Trying to figure out the benchmark for a L/S Vix futures stragegy, doesn't seem like only long or short Vix futures would be appropriate, any ideas? Thx
1
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1answer
41 views

impact of bond futures conversion factor on calendar spread trading

i have a quick question about conversion factor and his implication in calendar bonds roll trading. I go short on a calendar roll (short front+long back) which has the same cheapest to deliver. The ...
3
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1answer
104 views

Discrete vs continuous

When pricing equity futures with the cost of carry model; When do you use continuous compounding and when do you just use discrete compounding? And why
0
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1answer
59 views

Basis calculation

How does one calculate a fair value for a futures contract whose underlying is an Index? For example, how would fair value for ES futures be calculated using the prices of the S&P 500 constituents?...
1
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1answer
59 views

Hedge ratio: hedging a portfolio of global equities with futures

A bank decides to use $100 million of its capital to launch an investment strategy (seed money). The portfolio which is launched is made of global equities (say ~ 500 equities of different markets). ...
0
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2answers
360 views

Futures and Forward Prices vs interest rates

Textbooks usually state that if an asset's prices are positively correlated with interest rate movements, then its Futures price is going to be greater than its Forward Price assuming the same ...
12
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3answers
5k views

How does one estimate the probability of the Fed increasing its benchmark rate based on Fed funds futures?

How was this 67% probability calculated from Fed funds futures? Fed funds futures show a 67 percent chance the central bank will increase its benchmark rate by year-end from virtually zero, ...
0
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0answers
27 views

Which dates are optimal for monthly rebalancing of a futures portfolio?

As there are microstructure issues with the commodity market, e.g. the Goldman roll, is there any research on when it is optimal to monthly rebalance?
0
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1answer
63 views

Increase short positions in futures on oil

In this video on severe contango the author says that if the spot price is way under the futures price, a lot of people will buy oil on spot price and enter a short position. Then he says : ...it's ...
2
votes
1answer
90 views

FX Futures pricing formula

I'm reading Paul Wilmott's Introduces Quantitative Finance and stuck a bit with formula $F = S(t)e^{(r-r_f)(T-t)}$ for FX futures pricing. I don't get how to incorporate $r_f$ into the formula, could ...
1
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0answers
29 views

Generalisation of calendar arbitrage condition to options on futures

This question has discussed the condition on which calendar arbitrage opportunities arise for European call options on a stock. Do similar criteria exist for European options on futures? The most ...
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0answers
45 views

Futures data on Quantopian

I'm new to Quantopian and I'm not sure why I can't seem to see data for the e-mini futures ('ES') past around November, 2018. Have futures been discontinued?
0
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1answer
41 views

How are open and close price of mini snp futures determined

I'd like to know how are open and close prices of the mini snp futures contracts determined. For some reason I cannot find an answer to this basic question on the cme website.
2
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2answers
132 views

Reference on Futures basis trading strategy

I have heard that it is possible to trade on the futures basis. In my understanding, the futures basis is essentially the difference between the futures price and the underlying asset (also referred ...
1
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1answer
76 views

Pricing structured products (Mortgage Backed Securities) [closed]

What would someone have to do to be able to price a structured product like Mortgage/Asset Backed Securities?
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0answers
53 views

How would one go about pricing a FX future?

What model/equations would I require to calculate the price for a foreign exchange future? This is in an attempt to mitigate foreign exchange risk. Also, how could one measure a business's exposure to ...
1
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0answers
23 views

Does EFP (Exchange Futures for Physical) Involves Cash Exchange?

I am new to the concept of Exchange Futures for Physical (EFP). According to some sources (link), An Exchange for Physical (EFP) is a transaction involving the simultaneous exchange between two ...
2
votes
1answer
86 views

Getting rate from a share's given futures price, with known dividend information

Question was answered by @Ezy - thanks! This seems to be a basic question, but mysteriously unsolvable as far as I can see. It concerns calculating the interest rate from a given stock futures ...
1
vote
2answers
172 views

Treasury futures cost of carry and P&L

I'm looking to understand the P&L implications of holding 2YR treasury futures. Assuming no movement in interest rates through to maturity (i.e., no capital gains or losses due to interest rate ...
2
votes
1answer
50 views

Options on EuroStoxx Dividend Futures Data

Does anyone know where I could buy, scrape, or barter this data? Just need closing prices for each available strike going back as far as possible.
0
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0answers
40 views

How can I graph futures options profit/loss when the options have different underlyings?

Consider a portfolio of vanilla SPX monthly options that consists of two components, a SEP 2019 3000 Call and a DEC 2019 3000 Call. It's easy to graph these as they both share the same independent ...
0
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2answers
164 views

Why are FRA/futures convexity adjustments necessary?

This would be my explanation for the reason that convexity adjustments must exist: Futures are margined daily, such that if a trader is paid a future and rates goes up then money is paid into their ...
0
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1answer
50 views

Relationship between tick size, tick value, and contract size?

For many options and futures I can see that Contract Size = Tick Value / Tick Size Are these values always related like this, and if so what does the relationship mean?
9
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5answers
15k views

Are Futures exactly Delta One?

Delta of Future is exactly one I thought. This post here, says otherwise. However, quoting John Hull again: $$f = \text{Value of Future contract} = S_{t=0} - K \exp(-rT)$$ where $S$ it the spot ...
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0answers
46 views

How do you hedge with delta futures if payment is unsure?

A Czech company has a payable of 1,5 mil EUR that has got a settlement at the end of the current month and at the same time it is expecting a payment of 1,5 mil EUR at the half of the current month ...
8
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1answer
262 views

Why not just be long VIX and wait for the next volatile period?

Over the past 3 months, VIX has been relatively low. Therefore, there seems to be a "free-lunch" here by just being long VIX, and wait for the next market turmoil (which is happening at the moment ...
1
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1answer
31 views

Term structure model for exchange-traded STIR futures and their options

As I understand, models such as the SABR extension of the Libor Market Model are the "standard" for interest rate derivative valuation in OTC markets, where options tend to be European and it is ...
2
votes
2answers
158 views

Cumulative Return on Futures

In my current backtesting, I am using log returns as a proxy for simple returns via the relationship $\ln(1 + r) \approx r$ for small enough r. This gives me wonderful properties like time additivity, ...
1
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1answer
29 views

CFTC Futures Market Positioning

What does CFTC total net contracts number imply about a currency? For example, if total net contract is positive does that mean market is long USD/BRL? Btw I’m checking numbers on Bloomberg, ticker is ...
2
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0answers
77 views

simple question on bond futures pricing formula assuming continuous compounding

I'm reading a paper (Statistical arbitrage in the U.S. treasury futures market 2017), and have come across this derivation for the price of a bond future assuming interest payments and coupons ...
1
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0answers
24 views

Do daily price limits on futures lead to loss of momentum in the spot price of the underlying asset?

I've just started reading Hull, which has made mention of price limits employed by futures exchanges 'to prevent large price movements caused by speculative excess [to protect the interests of ...
1
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1answer
31 views

Transactional costs for shipping in % based on futures market price

Real case: Imagine I want to move an oil for one terminal to another. I have about 20 +/- tanker companies, but all of them have max capacity on their top deadweight (DWCC) vessel about ...
2
votes
1answer
72 views

Computing FX forward returns using spot returns and an existing term structure

Sorry for the naive question, I am new to the area. I have YTD spot returns on the USD/GBP pair and a forward yield curve. How would one go about computing the forward returns in 2 years using this ...
1
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1answer
62 views

Is it possible to create an instrument on the amount of beds sold within the real-estate market

I have been doing some research on the PBSA (purpose-built student accommodation) market around the globe. The market is growing year on year there is an index on this market the cbre. What ...
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0answers
64 views

Performance Call on a Futures

I'm not a 100% on when a margin call is on a group of future contracts... The contract attributes were: ...
1
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1answer
92 views

Interest Rate Futures Question from Hull, 8e

There is this question 6.16 in Hull, 8e: Suppose that it is February 20 and a treasurer realizes that on July 17 the company will have to issue \$5 million of commercial paper with a maturity of 180 ...
0
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1answer
87 views

Difference between timing option, end of month option and wild card option of bond futures

I cannot understand the difference between timing option, end of month option and wild card option of bond futures. i think they are all timing options which is optimal delivery. Only difference is ...
1
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0answers
47 views

Deliver Futures before last trading day

I found that for the exchange traded Futures, we can deliver the Futures before the last trading day, namely you can sell a Future then deliver it immediately, which definitely has a arbitrage ...
0
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0answers
45 views

How to hedge PLN account on Interactive Brokers

I know that you can't have PLN account on IB, the PLN input is exchanged into USD, GBP etc. currency. However I would like to hedge the other currency exposure against PLN, or at least find out how to ...
2
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0answers
72 views

SDE of futures price under non-constant interest rate and volatility process

I'm trying to figure out the form of the SDE of futures price under the risk neutral measure, when stock price follows GBM:             &...
2
votes
1answer
114 views

How do you calculate or estimate the future gross basis of a treasury future?

Gross Basis for treasury futures = clean price - future price* conversion factor Is there a way to estimate the gross basis, say 10 days from now, given that you know what the forward bond price is? ...
1
vote
1answer
41 views

Why currencies and futures contracts can be considered as assets with known yields?

I understand why stock index can be considered as assets with known yields due to the dividends. But why currencies and futures contracts can also be considered as assets with known yields? In the ...
1
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2answers
66 views

What exactly is a contract's “trading class”?

Web searches for this are drowned in pages offering trading courses, and the InteractiveBrokers API doesn't expand at all on the term. So what are contract trading classes, and what are some examples,...
2
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2answers
81 views

Group name for currencies, equities and other financial products

I am working on a financial software system that deals with crypto currencies. This system has a model called 'Currency' that describes for example 'BTC' and market for which there is a 'base' and '...
2
votes
3answers
344 views

How does one price the market value and estimate the fair value of a bond futures roll?

Consider the current situation: we are entering December, meaning that the December futures are being rolled into the March futures (i.e. traders are selling their holdings of December futures ...
8
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0answers
357 views

What is the most convenient data structure for backtesting a model of futures options prices?

I have an empirical model for the dynamics of futures prices in a particular market that I have implemented using a long series of the front five contracts. (I account for the roll in my model.) I ...
1
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0answers
44 views

Calculating Risk of Portfolio of Futures/Future Options [closed]

all. I am looking into calculating margin on futures mixed with futures options. Say ES is trading at 2700 currently, I long 100 ES, 600k (Margin/risk). Then i buy 100 2680 puts. so Points Diff (...
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0answers
23 views

Does a shift in prices effect Margin on Futures and their options?

In regards to ES im wondering If theres a scenerio intraday (price shock) that will effect the amount of margin im carrying. Besides PnL Kind of a dumb question, as I guess its just a function of ...
1
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0answers
44 views

Valueing a Short future contract with dividens [closed]

A forward of an underlying paying a yield $q$ can be priced with the equation: Price $= S_0 e^{(r-q)*t}$ or Price $= (S_0-I)e^{rt}$ Where $S_0$ = Spot price, r = interest, q = dividend yield, I = ...
2
votes
2answers
164 views

remove seasonality in future contracts

very new to commodities. I have raw agriculture future data, and I need to remove the seasonality (de-seasonalize) from the data, what is the general approach ? Thanks for the help!