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Questions tagged [futures]

Questions about futures contracts

2
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2answers
2k views

Market making in futures

I am learning various strategies to day trade the emini SP500 futures contract (ES) based largely around order flow principles and price action. I have been wanting to learn more about market making ...
6
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2answers
5k views

Cost of rolling futures contracts

Futures are traded on margin, so that the P&L of any open position is realized on the posted margin. To maintain a constant exposure to the future, an expiring contract needs to be rolled into a ...
4
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2answers
296 views

A proof that the final payoff on a futures contract is twice that on a forward contract

Following is an argument demonstrating that the final payoff on a futures contract is twice that on a forward contract, contrary to what I believe is the accepted truth that the two payoffs are the ...
2
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1answer
61 views

What exactly do I sell when I sell a futures contract I have previously bought?

Suppose I buy a futures contract and later, before expiry date, I sell it out. Is something physically exchanged between myself and the buyer, e.g. a paper certificate specifying the contract's ...
1
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1answer
48 views

Mechanics of futures contracts: with respect to which time reference is the variational margin calculated?

Consider the following situation. My futures exchange, Futures Inc., is open for business 9AM till 5PM EST. A few days ago I assumed a long position in a futures contract, $C$, on one unit of some ...
12
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2answers
407 views

Why are futures valueless?

I understand that futures exchanges are set up in such a way that traders don't pay cash in order to assume a long position on a futures contract; they simply "enter into" the contract, essentially ...
1
vote
1answer
156 views

Definition of Financial Futures: The value of a futures contract

According to the opening paragraph of the Wikipedia article for "Futures contract" In finance, a futures contract (more colloquially, futures) is a standardized forward contract which can be easily ...
0
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1answer
54 views

Definition of Financial Futures: The price to pay for the underlying asset on delivery date

According to the opening paragraph of the Wikipedia article for "Futures contract", the parties to a futures contract initially agree to buy and sell an asset for a price agreed upon today (the ...
0
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2answers
86 views

How to interpret the movement of stock index futures, in regards to regular market movements

In the hours before the stock exchanges open for the day, financial news reporters often discuss the latest developments in stock index futures. I'm curious how to interpret the developments they ...
2
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2answers
135 views

Futures Contracts, Rollover, Offsets

I was reading Trading Commodities and Financial Futures by Kleinman, I saw this excerpt: When you buy or sell a futures contract, you don’t actually sign a contract drawn up by a lawyer. Instead, ...
5
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1answer
90 views

Where to find E-mini S&P options price data or chart?

ES futures price data is easy to find, e.g. on Yahoo finance or with a free NinjaTrader demo account. I'm looking for the same for options on that futures contract. The best I could find is the ...
1
vote
1answer
121 views

How to convert bond options strikes to future prices

CME, 10 year Note Call Strike 1300 How to convert this strike to future price? (today's open at 131'100) For example we can take current prices EOD data for example chart on CMEgroup: http://www....
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0answers
74 views

Problem with overlapping data when testing futures market efficiency

In my case non-overlapping data would represent the scenario where futures prices (3 months) do not correspond to the futures spot prices in terms of delivery date. For example, futures settlement ...
3
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0answers
234 views

What is the best open source automated trading platform or options?

I would like a custom C++ Automated Trading Platform for Futures like Multicharts, or similar automated trading platform that I can put on my servers so its secure and fast. I have found this so far, ...
7
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1answer
626 views

Theoretical limits for contango and backwardation

What do you think would be the theoretical limit for contango? What about backwardation? This was asked in an interview. I am still not so sure about the answer.
1
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0answers
655 views

How to find or calculate 30-day constant maturity price of a future?

Question, pretty much says it. Is there a reliable place where this data can be found or, if not, is there a reliable place where the underlying data needed to calculate the constant maturity price ...
2
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1answer
816 views

Robust way to calculate P&L for stocks/futures trading

I have implemented a class in C# that will calculate P&L based on this description from TT. However it worries me that it gives different results for the same fills, if you apply the "fill ...
2
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1answer
972 views

Delta of a Commodity Future

Generally the price of a future is $ F(t,T) = S(t)e^{r(T-t)}, $ and it's delta is: $ \frac{\partial F}{\partial S} = e^{r(T-t)}. $ (As opposed to the delta of a forward which is always one.) In ...
4
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1answer
1k views

How to get historical data for expired futures contracts in IbPy?

Does anyone know how to request historical data for futures contracts that have already expired in IbPy? There are plenty of examples for requesting historical data for example this post, however ...
5
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1answer
530 views

VXV vs. VIX futures: arbitrage opportunities?

At a first glance, VXV and VIX futures should not be compared at all: VXV is an underlying index, whilst VIX futures are derivatives written on a different underlying index, that is, VIX. As instance,...
1
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1answer
60 views

nikkei 225 yen contract on the CME

This may be a silly question on futures trading, but I haven't found a clear answer on the CME website. For the Nikkei 225 Yen contract on the CME, which is denominated in Yen, the margin is also ...
2
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2answers
145 views

$E[F_T] = F_0 \ \rightarrow \ \text{or} \ \leftarrow \ p = \frac{1-d}{u-d}$?

From Ch 12 in Hull's OFOD, we compute the risk-neutral probabilities for a futures contract: Later in Ch 17, futures options are valued, and we have the same result: In relation to Chapter 16 and 17,...
1
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1answer
188 views

QuantLib: New Instrument derived from VanillaOption + PricingEngine that must work for both VanillaOption and the derived class

The derived class is a Vanilla Option on a Future and I need to specify the expiry of the underlying future which is in general different (later) than the expiry of the Vanilla Option. I have ...
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3answers
362 views

Best known performance of stock prediction algorithms

I asked this question here and was directed to answer it on this stack exchange. My question is very simple. What is the best [known] performance of a stock prediction algorithm? I've seen papers ...
3
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3answers
240 views

Why is the value of the VXX ETN always above short-term VIX futures prices?

If the VXX is simply a constant maturity weighted average of the 1st and 2nd month VIX futures prices, then why is its market price always larger than the maximum of the two? (the larger of the two is ...
2
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1answer
224 views

How to retrieve and format futures data for use in regression/time series models?

I need to form a predictive time series model for monthly Brent crude oil spot price. I am looking to form 1-12 month ahead forecast horizons. There is a bounty of previous literature which uses ...
1
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4answers
137 views

What is wrong with this argument?

Futures trading in stock index gives leverage. Leverage cuts both ways. It can give you huge pct gains or wipe you out. Typically stock index futures for the major markets have limited daily pct ...
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0answers
69 views

What time do bond traders come into office in morning in New York? [closed]

When I worked on bond desk in we need to be there 8am est. Is this typical ? Seems late to me as some markets open 8am like the Canada bond futures. Treasuries futures open 820am. I work at hedge ...
2
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0answers
182 views

Assets cointegration: optimal inventory for futures market

I'm interested in HFT cointegration stratagies, and recently found interesting article "Algorithmic Trading of Co-Integrated Assets" The article describes mean-reversion strategy for N-assets. ...
4
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2answers
4k views

Options pricing exercise - American call option on a futures contract

I am confused by a particular exercise I am doing right now, I am hopeful that someone can walk me through as to how to solve it. I further hope the question is not considered too basic for this forum....
4
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0answers
78 views

Are there academic papers on the 'term structure' of adverse selection for futures and options?

By term structure I mean a non-stationarity in the pattern of intraday adverse selection as a given instruments approaches its expiry. Note that I am interested in the adverse selection on the ...
5
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3answers
112 views

When are ES E-mini future options issued?

Since options lose 2/3 of their time value in the second half of their lifespan, it makes sense to be aware of when an option was issued. What are ways of figuring out when ES futures options have ...
1
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2answers
699 views

put call parity for futures options derivation in Hull

In Hull, the following derivation of PCP for futures options: What confuses me is that it is stated that the payoff of the long futures is $F_t-F_0$. The footnote states: the analysis assumes that a ...
2
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1answer
379 views

the cash flows behind closing out futures positions

I always get confused about the cashflows occurring when a futures position is closed out. For example, say it is January and I enter into a long December Futures position with a futures price F(jan). ...
1
vote
1answer
508 views

How to calculate returns and sharpe ratio for futures?

What is the industry standard way to calculate returns, which will be used to calculate sharpe ratio for e-mini S&P500?
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1answer
261 views

what is the cost for rolling 5 year german future?

im looking at the bobl future for september and for december and see 1.8 basis points difference. i wanted to know why there is this gap? and if im holding a position in september and want to roll it ...
2
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1answer
55 views

Futures Holiday Schedule

I am trying to find a place where I can get S&P Emini contract trading days. I would like to get the contract first appearance (September 9th 1997) until today. I can get Holidays but nothing ...
2
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1answer
29 views

Source of market or security attribute information?

There are many securities and exchanges on platforms like Bloomberg and Quandl, but many securities are described with the relevant pit close times and pit open times, exchanges, related futures, and ...
3
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2answers
149 views

Futures Parameters for Value at Risk

I am new to risk management. I am calculating the VaR for a portfolio of futures contracts, long and shorts. I calculated it using the historical, parametric, and ...
1
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0answers
37 views

Historical UK Gilt 2-year and 5-year data

Data on the Medium (approx. 5-years) and Short (approx. 2-years) futures contract listed on ICE only goes back to 2009. Is anyone able to point me towards where I can get a longer time series, perhaps ...
4
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1answer
202 views

U.S. Rate Hike Prediction

In a recent ft.com video an analyst mentioned that markets postponed their Fed rate hike expectation from September to around November 2015 due to the CNY devaluation, based on the "shift" of some "...
3
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3answers
310 views

Why is the spot price not used as the forward price when a forward contract is created?

If the initial value of a forward contract is zero, surely the forward price used would be the spot price at the time the contract was created? However, my notes tell me that the forward price F, at $...
6
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2answers
1k views

Value at Risk for Futures Contracts

I would like to know how you would compute Value at Risk on a portfolio of futures i.e rates futures, commodity futures and equity. How do you deal with the discontinuous form of commodity futures for ...
2
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1answer
105 views

Forward parity in fixed income

In stock and index we have a beautiful forward-spot parity $$ F(t,T) = S(t)\cdot B(t,T) \tag{1} $$ which tells us that to price a forward contract at time $t$ with expiry $T$ we can just borrow ...
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2answers
331 views

how to convert notional to nominal of bond future to ctd bond

I want to know if you can easily convert a notional of a bond futures contract into the nominal of the ctd bond if you have the conversion factor. For example you have 1000 notional of a futures ...
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2answers
5k views

How does one estimate the probability of the Fed increasing its benchmark rate based on Fed funds futures?

How was this 67% probability calculated from Fed funds futures? Fed funds futures show a 67 percent chance the central bank will increase its benchmark rate by year-end from virtually zero, ...
1
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1answer
364 views

Broker or source of intraday futures data for a python API?

I am looking for a broker that offers a python API for downloading historical intraday data on futures. So far I have only seen Interactive Brokers and Tradestation. Are there some other brokers ...
3
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2answers
354 views

Understanding Quandl Futures Data

I'm interested in learning how to adjust my own futures contracts for analysis. Unfortunately my quantitative classes didn't really go into this, and I would like to learn it on my own. The methods ...
5
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2answers
356 views

Do futures follow physical or risk-neutral distributions

I've spent a while looking for an answer to this question and while I feel it is a simple question I have not found an answer. I know prices of option contracts follow an implied, risk-neutral ...
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1answer
842 views

Conversion of SPY prices to ES prices

I have a system that I use intraday that works great on SPY. Due to the extra leverage available plus other benefits I am thinking about trading the system using ES. Is there a conversion factor ...