Questions tagged [futures]

For futures contracts, instruments which compensate the trader for price changes, may be used to hedge price risk (i.e. lock in a price), and are in zero net supply, standardized, exchange-traded, margined, marked-to-market, netted, and centrally-cleared.

132 questions with no upvoted or accepted answers
Filter by
Sorted by
Tagged with
9
votes
0answers
402 views

What is the most convenient data structure for backtesting a model of futures options prices?

I have an empirical model for the dynamics of futures prices in a particular market that I have implemented using a long series of the front five contracts. (I account for the roll in my model.) I ...
7
votes
0answers
824 views

Python Backtesting Framework Similar to Quantstrat

I use Quantstrat heavily for strategy research and optimisation. I have two Python developers about to join my team and would like to use it as an opportunity to diversify our research tools so we are ...
6
votes
1answer
163 views

How are VIX futures being priced when the VIX itself is not being calculated because of circuit breakers

I see that CBOE has halted trading all SPX options, which means the VIX cannot be calculated. Yet VIX futures are still trading and we are very close to the last trade date for the March contract. I ...
5
votes
0answers
1k views

How to calculate average entry price for perpetual swap contracts?

I'm trying to calculate the average entry price for perpetual swap contracts for use in back-testing a trading strategy, as per Bitmex's documentation: A Perpetual Contract is a derivative product ...
5
votes
0answers
179 views

Dividend Index Futures

My question is dealing with the proportionality between Dividend Index Futures prices and Index prices. Indeed, we in the past we used to do a simple regression between these variables and use the ...
4
votes
1answer
127 views

How does the underlying get delivered for electricity market derivatives?

I have been reading around energy markets recently and recent schemes such as Voluntary Carbon Markets, similar to the 'cap and trade' style of the Kyoto Agreement in 1997. I have been reading in ...
4
votes
0answers
68 views

What are the trade offs when choosing a long term bond future to trade?

It seems that when trading long term bonds *** and choosing between the two offerings on CME one is presented with a Scylla and Charybdis decision. 1. VOLATILITY CONSISTENCY: Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond ...
4
votes
0answers
224 views

Assets cointegration: optimal inventory for futures market

I'm interested in HFT cointegration stratagies, and recently found interesting article "Algorithmic Trading of Co-Integrated Assets" The article describes mean-reversion strategy for N-assets. ...
4
votes
0answers
94 views

Are there academic papers on the 'term structure' of adverse selection for futures and options?

By term structure I mean a non-stationarity in the pattern of intraday adverse selection as a given instruments approaches its expiry. Note that I am interested in the adverse selection on the ...
4
votes
0answers
105 views

Estimating Number of "Day Trades" from Total Volume of Commodity Futures Contract

Looking at futures data I am trying to calculate/estimate the number of "day trades", i.e. positions that were initiated and closed during the same day, as distinct from those positions that were ...
4
votes
0answers
85 views

Is it important to equalize the minimum price fluctuation in pairs trading?

For example, suppose we were trading a strategy which buys one Brent contract and sells one Gasoil contract. The minimum price fluctuation for a Brent contract is \$10, and the minimum price ...
4
votes
0answers
126 views

Estimating two normal random numbers with one equation

Subtitle: Estimating the correlation of the shocks driving two commodities in two multi-factor models I am fitting two 2-factor models to electricity and gas futures, respectively. In order to ...
3
votes
0answers
135 views

Forward/futures contracts that satisfy $F=S\exp(rT)$

I am interested in estimating riskless rates from forward/futures data. The standard forward pricing formula is given by $$F=S\exp(rT).$$ From this we can solve the interest rate used in pricing as a ...
3
votes
0answers
59 views

Book that considers stochastic interest rate models in discrete time?

Are there any books that covers interest rate swaps, futures, forwards etc. but have a discrete time model? I would like to go deeper into this without having to worry about the stochastic calculus. ...
3
votes
0answers
49 views

Joint Distribution of Correlated Variables with Markov Switching

I am modeling a portfolio of correlated assets whose lack of liquidity can be reasonably described by a Markov-switching model. That is, not only is movement size among assets correlated, but so is ...
3
votes
0answers
125 views

Pricing of future options

I have the following question on futures options: There is a Black’s model, which is a variant of the Black-Scholes formula that is used to price stock options. The Black’s model prices future options....
3
votes
0answers
232 views

CME Rate Hike Probability Calculation

First thing first, CME has a tool to calculate fed rate hike probability from here. As of 11/20/2017, their probability distribution was like this: I have checked a couple Q&A sections on this ...
3
votes
0answers
418 views

Is there really a negative roll yield for futures in contango?

I am trying to wrap my head around how ETFs that track futures work (whether its USO tracking WTI futures or VXX tracking VIX futures). I have read online about how for normal contango environments, ...
3
votes
0answers
674 views

Optimal f (position sizing) without look ahead bias

My goal is to identify a systematic way to position sizing in the futures market. Let assume that I'm an investor with log utility. In addition, let assume that I'm reluctant in estimating the ...
3
votes
0answers
658 views

The effects of “cost of carry” and “convenience yield” in pricing futures and forwards

I understand that time-varying interest rates, “cost of carry” and “convenience yield” will have an effect on forward and futures prices but why would it affect the prices of forwards relative to ...
2
votes
0answers
58 views

Electricity Futures Risk Premiums With ARIMA

I am attempting to model long-term electricity prices using today's futures prices. Unlike most futures, electricity is delivered over a period of time (usually a month), rather than at a point in ...
2
votes
0answers
173 views

Solve the Schwartz mean reverting PDE for option pricing using Euler explicit method (matlab)

Objective: Implement the Euler Explict Method for solving the PDE for option prices under the Schwartz mean reverting model. The price evolution of a commodity can be described by the Schwartz SDE $$...
2
votes
0answers
42 views

Non-Linear Time-Dependent Volatility

My data consist of monthly electricity futures contracts. Unlike other commodities, electricity is delivered throughout a month (rather than on a specific date), which means that, as the active month ...
2
votes
0answers
82 views

Futures vs Forward pricing with different interest rates using binomial model

I'm given the aforementioned parameters for a two-step binomial model where the underlying pays no dividend, $S_0=50$ and $T=2$. With this information I was able to calculate the risk-neutral ...
2
votes
0answers
99 views

Tailing the Hedge for Minimum Variance Hedge Ratio (Hull, 10ed)

I am an amateur reading Hull's Options, Futures and other Derivatives. I have encountered an issue similar to the one here: How to tail a hedge? (Question 3.26 from Hull, edition 10). The author ...
2
votes
0answers
54 views

Option on Futures vs. Stocks

The Black-Scholes call on a Futures is valued as: $$ C_t=e^{-r(T-t)}[F_tN(d_1)-KN(d_2)] $$ It holds: $F_t=S_te^{r(T-t)}$. If I plug this back in, I get the Black-Scholes call on a stock: $$ C_t=S_tN(...
2
votes
1answer
156 views

impact of bond futures conversion factor on calendar spread trading

i have a quick question about conversion factor and his implication in calendar bonds roll trading. I go short on a calendar roll (short front+long back) which has the same cheapest to deliver. The ...
2
votes
0answers
103 views

simple question on bond futures pricing formula assuming continuous compounding

I'm reading a paper (Statistical arbitrage in the U.S. treasury futures market 2017), and have come across this derivation for the price of a bond future assuming interest payments and coupons ...
2
votes
0answers
164 views

SDE of futures price under non-constant interest rate and volatility process

I'm trying to figure out the form of the SDE of futures price under the risk neutral measure, when stock price follows GBM:             &...
2
votes
0answers
74 views

Do you receive premium from selling VXTY futures?

I am having some difficulty understanding VXTY futures and how they are priced. The contract specs say it is priced off of OZN options (10yr UST futures options). I understand there is a premium ...
2
votes
0answers
162 views

why do forward contracts have varying sensitivity to yield, but futures contracts do not?

I just watched https://institute.cmegroup.com/courses/introduction-to-eurodollars/modules/understanding-convexity-bias as I understand it, if the yield rate of a futures contract increases, the price ...
2
votes
0answers
118 views

Monte Carlo Simulation of Spread Strategy. Two correlated assets vs One spread simulation?

I am trying to simulate paths of a certain spread strategy such as a calendar spread between two futures ( May Crude vs Aug Crude) using a Monte Carlo simulation. My questions is there a difference ...
2
votes
0answers
126 views

Are futures/forward contracts tradable in the middle of its life? If yes, how?

I think I'm having some trouble understanding what trading futures/forward contracts means. Assuming a market over the period $[0,T]$, for a European contingent claim $X_T$, my naive understanding is ...
2
votes
0answers
62 views

Spurious regression between two futures with the same underlying highly correlated (cor=0.9)

analyzing the correlation between soybean and soybean meal futures in ECBOT, and making a linear regression in R between them I check with an ADF Test that the residuals are not stationary, so ...
2
votes
0answers
295 views

commodity futures options data

I am trying to get my hands on some historical commodity futures options data for about 35 commodity futures. So far in my search the only way I can get the data seems to be through the Commodity ...
2
votes
0answers
1k views

How to construct a continuous price time series out of futures raw data in Excel?

My object of research is corn futures: It is well known that corn futures expire 5 times per year: March, May, July, September and December. Due to their finite life that is limited by their maturity,...
2
votes
0answers
288 views

What is the best open source automated trading platform or options?

I would like a custom C++ Automated Trading Platform for Futures like Multicharts, or similar automated trading platform that I can put on my servers so its secure and fast. I have found this so far, ...
2
votes
0answers
941 views

How to think about dollar volume in Eurodollar futures?

This is a very basic question: Computing the notional volume for futures contracts usually consists of something like: $$V_F = N \cdot P \cdot M \cdot FX$$ Where $V_F$ is the dollar volume of the ...
2
votes
0answers
218 views

Market Exposure and Hedging

Normally the Market exposure associated with your stock/portfolio is your delta for that stock/ portfolio. Basic idea of hedging involved here is buying/selling respective futures depending upon ...
2
votes
0answers
160 views

Is there a general format for various sources of futures market-data?

I am developing a market-data engine that receives market-data from different futures exchanges. So I need a general format to deal with sources from different exchanges. Protocols like FIX only ...
2
votes
0answers
206 views

What is the highest frequency greek for options on futures on bonds?

I'm considering exchange traded options of futures on bonds. Options on bond futures are usually American, thus the Black model is out of question. Which is the most imporatant Greek with respect to ...
1
vote
0answers
34 views

Should I train (and apply) a commodity forecasting model using nominal or real historical (futures) prices?

I am forecasting hourly power prices by applying Gradient Boosting to, among other variables, average monthly gas prices. The algorithm is currently trained on historical nominal monthly average gas ...
1
vote
1answer
85 views

IV on FOP (futures options) being higher than IV on equivalent ETF

I've been observing that options on /es has a higher IV than the options on SPY even though they're both tracking the S&P 500. What causes this? Doesn't this mean that the options on /es is more ...
1
vote
0answers
25 views

Black 76 and Asian Style Options on Shaped Power Futures

I am attempting to price a monthly lookback option on the gen-weighted average price of power at a particular solar plant over a given month. If the option settles at hub H, am I right to shape the ...
1
vote
0answers
57 views

Future price in continous time

I am in the following continuous time market: $S_t^0 = rS_t^0dt$ $S_t^1 = (\mu - \delta) S_t^1dt + \sigma S_t^1 dB_t$ where $r, \mu, \delta$ and $\sigma$ are constant values in $\mathbb{R}$. $\delta$...
1
vote
0answers
30 views

Price Prediction Intervals from Forecasted Returns (ARIMA)

I have successfully fit an ARIMA model to a time series of the daily returns of power futures prices. The question I have is: How can I create a prediction interval for the prices? Or, alternatively, ...
1
vote
0answers
43 views

How do I deal with nonexistant data in a time series with an irregular frequency?

I am trying to do some time series analysis on the margin resulting from three specific commodity futures contracts and ultimately forecast the margin. The margin is calculated as M = F1 + F2 - F3. I ...
1
vote
0answers
46 views

Why are futures contracts on the secondary market described as having 1 price, instead of 1 price for contract buyers and a 2nd price for sellers?

I'm first going to describe how I believe the futures contract mechanics work, and please correct me where I'm wrong: A contract seller (in a short position because usually they don't actually ...
1
vote
0answers
37 views

Understanding end-of-month options embedded in Treasury Futures

I'm struggling to understand the end-of-month option embedded in Treasury Futures. Specifically, I'm looking at what would happen to CTD when yields rise or fall. What are the main differences between ...
1
vote
0answers
33 views

Which volatility should I use in a long-term futures swaption?

Consider an option expiring in 12/31/2023 on an hourly swap from 2024 through 2029 such that: a) I pay the floating price of electricity and b) receive $20 in return. Using shaped monthly futures and ...