Questions tagged [futures]

Questions about futures contracts

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commodity futures options data

I am trying to get my hands on some historical commodity futures options data for about 35 commodity futures. So far in my search the only way I can get the data seems to be through the Commodity ...
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146 views

Why is shorting (oil) futures a bit of a negative gamma trade?

From this article, http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-22/oil-speculators-have-never-been-long, "I get what you're saying about the price risk which is always the danger of shorting crude oil it's ...
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72 views

Pricing defaultable asset with finite maturity

Assume a stochastic process $X_0 = 0$ and $X_t = \nu t + \sigma W_t$ where $W_t$ is standard Brownian motion and $\nu$ is a drift (can have $\nu \leq 0$ if necessary, but prefer it to be general), ...
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67 views

Forward Exchange Rate Data: Germany x US

Would anyone know where I can find historical forward exchange rate data between germany and US, yen and US to download? In Bank of England website i already found. Thanks
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Problem with overlapping data when testing futures market efficiency

In my case non-overlapping data would represent the scenario where futures prices (3 months) do not correspond to the futures spot prices in terms of delivery date. For example, futures settlement ...
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710 views

How to find or calculate 30-day constant maturity price of a future?

Question, pretty much says it. Is there a reliable place where this data can be found or, if not, is there a reliable place where the underlying data needed to calculate the constant maturity price ...
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40 views

Historical UK Gilt 2-year and 5-year data

Data on the Medium (approx. 5-years) and Short (approx. 2-years) futures contract listed on ICE only goes back to 2009. Is anyone able to point me towards where I can get a longer time series, perhaps ...
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238 views

Estimating the next tick movement in Chinese markets

I'm working on high frequency trading in the Chinese Futures market and I've been having a bit of trouble with getting orders to go through due to the lack of liquidity and large fluctuations. To ...
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85 views

For futures contracts, do we need to do price adjustment during live testing?

I am trying to do pair trading on a pair of future contracts, e.g. CME gold and silver. During the training of my trading model, I do forward adjustment on the pair of future contracts. Let the ...
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1k views

Difference between “basic risk” and “basis risk”

Returning to Futures contracts, basic risk refers to the risk remaining after the hedge has been put in place and essentially represents the difference between the Futures price – should the ...
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181 views

What's the link between EURIBOR3M futures volatility and rates volatility?

If I am not wrong, EURIBOR3M futures with maturity $T$, whose price is $F_{T}$, are quoted like contracts which express the underlying forward rates, $r_{T}$, as $$r_{T}=\frac{100-F_{T}}{100}$$ Now ...
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134 views

How do bond futures affect effective rate when used to hedge a bond's duration?

I'm trying to wrap my head around what happens to the net interest received when an invester goes short a bond future to fully hedge the duration of his long position in an actual bond. Does it ...
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1answer
79 views

Hedge ratio: hedging a portfolio of global equities with futures

A bank decides to use $100 million of its capital to launch an investment strategy (seed money). The portfolio which is launched is made of global equities (say ~ 500 equities of different markets). ...
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29 views

How to backtest a sample of trades to optimize stop loss on losing trades and profit targets on winning trades?

I have a history of hundreds of executed trades. Given those trades, I want to know if there's a tool or framework that can help me figuring out: What would have been the most cost efficient stop ...
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29 views

Which dates are optimal for monthly rebalancing of a futures portfolio?

As there are microstructure issues with the commodity market, e.g. the Goldman roll, is there any research on when it is optimal to monthly rebalance?
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40 views

How can I graph futures options profit/loss when the options have different underlyings?

Consider a portfolio of vanilla SPX monthly options that consists of two components, a SEP 2019 3000 Call and a DEC 2019 3000 Call. It's easy to graph these as they both share the same independent ...
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47 views

How to hedge PLN account on Interactive Brokers

I know that you can't have PLN account on IB, the PLN input is exchanged into USD, GBP etc. currency. However I would like to hedge the other currency exposure against PLN, or at least find out how to ...
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59 views

What is the use of undiscounted Futures/Option Prices

Reading the great book of Gatheral on Vol Surfaces (link) I can't help but notice that throughout he uses undiscounted option prices (though he obviously never assumed rates to be zero). See e.g. ...
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71 views

Market Invariant for Commodity Futures

In the same sense that Meucci describes "compounded returns" as the invariant for equities and "changes in yield-to-maturity" as the invariant for fixed-income, what is the invariant for a commodity ...
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43 views

Future Quotes on the S&P 500 Index

I am looking at the following quotes of the futures prices of the S&P 500: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/fc?bypass=true&s=ESM16.CME&ltr=1 The way I read this, the market thinks that ...
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139 views

Black (1976) model: boundary conditions with non-convergence of spot and forward prices

Let's suppose we have a futures contract F in a market where the relation $$F(t,T)=S(t)e^{r(T−t)}$$ doesn't hold. What are the the boundary conditions for the derivation of the Black (1976) formula?...
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2answers
453 views

Falling Futures prices positively correlated with interest rates

I'm having trouble understanding how Futures are worth more than Forwards when price and interest rates are positively correlated but both declining. For instance, a Future with losses of -5 at T(n-...
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1k views

Calculating arbitrage- S&P 500 stocks vs S&P 500 Index future?

How exactly would I go about investigating whether the S&P 500 stocks were currently over-valued compared with the price of the S&P 500 Index futures contract? Is it just a case of taking each ...