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Questions tagged [futures]

Questions about futures contracts

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60 views

Creating a synthetic future

Let's say we have a time series for an illiquid future and we would like to replicate this time series using two time series for liquid futures using daily rebalancing. What would be a good approach ...
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0answers
145 views

Net Exposure of FX Future

I'm a software developer currently working for an asset manager in their Risk department. I'm looking at Currency Futures and have a question I was hoping someone could put me right on. If I have a ...
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1answer
190 views

eurodollar future

I just found out about eurdollar futures and I am confused. A eurodollar future contract is defined as a cash settled future based on a Eurodollar Time Deposit having a principal value of USD $1,000,...
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1answer
135 views

XIV Positive Roll Yield

I understand that VIX futures are usually in contango and so a portfolio that holds futures with a weighted average expiration of 30 days will "roll" down to equal the VIX index at maturity. This is ...
1
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1answer
81 views

Role of next month's dividends in forward pricing

I'm using the equations given on this page to price forwards on an equity. It's a basic equation that discounts dividends. But my question is: What do we do about dividends that occur after the ...
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2answers
454 views

Falling Futures prices positively correlated with interest rates

I'm having trouble understanding how Futures are worth more than Forwards when price and interest rates are positively correlated but both declining. For instance, a Future with losses of -5 at T(n-...
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2answers
3k views

Market making in futures

I am learning various strategies to day trade the emini SP500 futures contract (ES) based largely around order flow principles and price action. I have been wanting to learn more about market making ...
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1answer
119 views

The settlement and payment date of Eurodollar

This is John Hull's book Options, Futures and Other Derivatives 9th Page 142 Suppose the maturity of a ...
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1answer
101 views

Making an IB contract: Directory for IBpY exchanges and commodity codes?

All the tutorials for making a contract seem to use either Apple or Google as examples: goog_contract = create_contract('GOOG', 'STK', 'SMART', 'SMART', 'USD') If I want to trade CME Feeder Cattle ...
3
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4answers
1k views

How to compute interest rate futures spread ratio?

I am confused on how to compute the spread ratio. For example, this is example I came across with my broker - Consider 2 contracts Bobl and Euribor. The DV01 of Bobl i 44.8 and Euribor is 25. To ...
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1answer
103 views

Libor futures rolling adjustment & curve building

Can futures rolling affect curve constructing? Let's say that i'm using future 1 and 2 to construct the short end of my curve. As i understand it, rolling will create volatility (as volumes spike), ...
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3answers
113 views

When are ES E-mini future options issued?

Since options lose 2/3 of their time value in the second half of their lifespan, it makes sense to be aware of when an option was issued. What are ways of figuring out when ES futures options have ...
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1answer
157 views

What's the future price when you exercise the future option

Here is the example of future option in John Holl's book Options, Futures and Other Derivatives 9th page 384. I don't understand that when you exercise the future ...
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1answer
165 views

Taking advantage of mispricing in forwards [duplicate]

Suppose gold futures are selling at 360 in February, and 370 in April. Interest is 9% annually. Note that 360*(1+0.09*2/12)=365.4, so the April futures is overpriced. Then we can sell April and buy ...
2
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1answer
228 views

Traders view on hedging of FX Futures with FX Forward

I would like to get a trades view on hedging a FX Forward with a FX Future by just moving the (1) FX_Spot rate and ignore the other risk factors (2) ccy1 DV01 risk, (3) ccy2 DV01 risk, (4) basis swap ...
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1answer
141 views

Zero value of cash flow for future in Shreve's book

Here is the statements of future price in Shreve's book Stochastic Calculus for Finance II page 244 to proof the ...
4
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1answer
1k views

How to measure contango?

Is there any unit of measure for the magnitude of the contango (or backwardation) for futures, so you can compare the contango of many symbols.
2
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1answer
123 views

How to understand closing position of futures

When we want to close out the position of futures prior to the delivery period, you will entering into the opposite trade to the original one. Equivalently, except ...
3
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1answer
1k views

What exactly is a deposit futures contract?

I have been working with Deposit Futures and the Brazilian One-Day Interbank Deposit Future but I can't get my head around them. What exactly is delivered and when? What is the contract a right to?
3
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0answers
338 views

Is there really a negative roll yield for futures in contango?

I am trying to wrap my head around how ETFs that track futures work (whether its USO tracking WTI futures or VXX tracking VIX futures). I have read online about how for normal contango environments, ...
1
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1answer
50 views

Payoff of an odd indicator of one stock being greater than another

Suppose $S_t^1$ and $S_t^2$ are two stocks following GBMs and have current value $s_1$ and $s_2$ respectively. How can I explicitly compute the payoff $$ V(t,s_1,s_2)\triangleq \mathbb{E}\left[ 1_{\{...
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0answers
581 views

Extracting continuous futures prices on different dates with the ratio adjustment

I extract continuous prices for a set of futures contracts using Bloomberg. I select the Ratio as adjustment with the Bloomberg default settings. For instance, to extract the first/forward generic ...
1
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1answer
645 views

Why does a futures price converge to a spot price?

I've sort of get the arbitrage logic of it, i.e if the futures price is more expensive than spot price, then investors would short the contract and buy the asset for delivery. Correct me if i'm wrong. ...
3
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0answers
508 views

Optimal f (position sizing) without look ahead bias

My goal is to identify a systematic way to position sizing in the futures market. Let assume that I'm an investor with log utility. In addition, let assume that I'm reluctant in estimating the ...
0
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1answer
498 views

Margin modelling to backtest futures investment strategy

Let say that I have access to continuous daily time series for 20+ years of data for E-mini S&P 500 Index Futures. I have a long/short strategy to backtest that places orders either on open or ...
22
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5answers
11k views

Why is the VIX futures market usually in a state of contango?

I'm a VIX newbie and I'm trying to understand why the VIX futures market is usually in a state of contango. All I can figure is that the sellers of VIX futures contracts demand high "prices" (because ...
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1answer
195 views

time series for futures roll

I'm trying to build a multi year time series for a 3 month futures contract. How do I handle rolls? On the day of roll, volatility is high and I want to roll over to next contract series in a way that ...
0
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1answer
74 views

Integrating Interest and Dividend Functions

How are interest rate and dividend functions integrated over time in practice? For example, what does it mean in practice to discount a current price by $e^{\int_{t_m}^{T}r_s ds }$ where $r_s$ is the ...
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2answers
624 views

Convergence of Spot and Futures prices

Any explanation I've found explaining why future and spot prices converge over time seem to only focus the explanation on why the spot and future price must be equal at maturity. I understand that if ...
7
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2answers
1k views

Why is stock futures price much lower than spot?

What might be the reason for a futures price on a stock being much lower than the spot, i.e. stock price? Spot = 8.30 Futures M17 = 7.45 U17 = 7.23 The company does not pay dividends. No-arbitrage ...
2
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0answers
110 views

Are futures/forward contracts tradable in the middle of its life? If yes, how?

I think I'm having some trouble understanding what trading futures/forward contracts means. Assuming a market over the period $[0,T]$, for a European contingent claim $X_T$, my naive understanding is ...
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0answers
43 views

Future Quotes on the S&P 500 Index

I am looking at the following quotes of the futures prices of the S&P 500: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/fc?bypass=true&s=ESM16.CME&ltr=1 The way I read this, the market thinks that ...
0
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1answer
401 views

Dividend yield under Black 1976 formula for futures options?

I have a question regarding the BS 1976 formula for futures options. https://www.glynholton.com/notes/black_1976/ How do I deal with dividends under this model, assuming that the dividend yield is ...
2
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1answer
157 views

When a particular bond is delivered, why there is the need to define a conversion factor? What is its utility?

Where, the conversion factor for a bond (by John C. Hull) is set equal to the quoted price the bond would have per dollar of principal on the first day of the delivery month on the assumption that the ...
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0answers
82 views

Deriving Cox, Ingersoll and Ross expression for the relationship between forwards and futures, how do they conclude a specific step?

I'm trying to derive a specific relationship about the relationship between forwards and futures from "The relationship between forward and futures prices", written 1981 by Cox, Ingersoll and Ross (...
2
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1answer
213 views

How do I compute volatility and greeks of the american option on futures using matlab toolbox?

I have learned some knowledge on option pricing by myself at a very beginne level. I'm using Matlab R2009b finacial derivative toolbox. I found option pricing functions for american options on stock, ...
2
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2answers
2k views

why futures contract has no value

Can any one tell me, why futures contract has no value? We know that the value of future(Maybe I confuse the concept of ...
2
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0answers
59 views

Spurious regression between two futures with the same underlying highly correlated (cor=0.9)

analyzing the correlation between soybean and soybean meal futures in ECBOT, and making a linear regression in R between them I check with an ADF Test that the residuals are not stationary, so ...
8
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1answer
2k views

Constant maturity futures price methodology

What is the correct methodology to compute constant maturity futures price. I've met in some papers that do the following. To create constant maturity synthetic futures prices with maturity $m = 30, ...
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0answers
66 views

Combine future contracts into time series [duplicate]

I have future contracts from 10 years back that are combined in one file. There is a gap in the data every month due to rolling of the contracts. How do I remove this gap ad get a smooth time series ...
3
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0answers
623 views

The effects of “cost of carry” and “convenience yield” in pricing futures and forwards

I understand that time-varying interest rates, “cost of carry” and “convenience yield” will have an effect on forward and futures prices but why would it affect the prices of forwards relative to ...
7
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2answers
640 views

Which volatility to use to price options on futures contract?

I have some questions regarding pricing futures options and I just want to be sure that my thoughts are correct. I am trying to price options on futures for american & european style. In the ...
2
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1answer
1k views

Price of bond future, given a specific interest rate?

I'm interested in calculating what a theoretical price of the ZB or UB(Ultra Bond) futures would be priced at, given an interest rate of 1%. Or 0% If the 30Y interest rate is around 1%, what will ...
0
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1answer
91 views

Open Interest on Options on Futures

Is there anywhere that reports open interests or the max pain on futures such as Crude (CL), Natural Gas (NG), or E-Minis (ES)? I cannot seem to find this data, though I have seen it listed on trading ...
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1answer
136 views

How to compute the Value-at-Risk of an equity portfolio hedged using futures contracts?

I would like to have your opinions about how to calculate the VaR of a hedged portfolio using futures contracts. I have tried several "black box" softwares and none of them make too much sense. The ...
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0answers
125 views

commodity futures options data

I am trying to get my hands on some historical commodity futures options data for about 35 commodity futures. So far in my search the only way I can get the data seems to be through the Commodity ...
3
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1answer
171 views

Option on index vs option on index future

Cash-settled options on the S&P 500 index existed before options on futures on that index. Where would the demand for options on futures have come from prompting the exchange to begin listing them,...
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1answer
109 views

Return on investment in spreads

I have a hard time getting my head around this. Let's say you have a strategy that consists in buying one future spread, for instance CL Z7-Z8 (crude oil dec17 minus dec18). It's easy to calculate the ...
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0answers
148 views

Why is shorting (oil) futures a bit of a negative gamma trade?

From this article, http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-22/oil-speculators-have-never-been-long, "I get what you're saying about the price risk which is always the danger of shorting crude oil it's ...
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1answer
129 views

Textbook for US Treasury Bond / Notes Futures

Is the text The Treasury Bond Basis by Burghardt still the authoritative source on this topic? The most recent edition was published in 2005. I think that, based on the contents and others' ...