Questions tagged [fx]

The foreign exchange market (forex, FX, or currency market) is a global, worldwide-decentralized financial market for trading currencies. Commonly traded instruments include spot, forward, swaps, futures, and options. The FX market is the most liquid financial market in the world. There is no unified or centrally cleared market.

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22
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2answers
13k views

Cross Currency Swap Pricing in nowadays environment

Multicurve setting has now become the new paradigm for vanilla swap valuation. For the record I give here (without getting into too much details) the methodoloy for pricing Euribor3M swaps in this ...
19
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1answer
5k views

How do I compare implied and historic volatility?

what would you suggest are the starting points for comparing, in an easy, visual way, implied and delivered volatility surfaces? I'd like to see what the differences are between the historic surfaces, ...
17
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4answers
11k views

Is statistical arbitrage on FX possible?

Do you know of any papers which consider pairs trading (or statistical arbitrage) on foreign exchange? I couldn't find any. I asked this question on several forums and got no reply. Thus I guess this ...
16
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4answers
4k views

How to generate synthetic FX data for backtesting?

I want to generate synthetic forex data for the purpose of backtesting my trading algorithms. I have some rough ideas in mind on how to do this: Start with a curve representing a trend, then randomly ...
16
votes
1answer
372 views

Could banks move to continuous (rather than overnight) funding?

For a long time, the dominant tenors for money market and FX instruments were 6 months and 3 months, and banks slowly moved to commercial trades at those tenors but funding overnight. If this is a ...
15
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2answers
15k views

Why using 3 months forward to hedge fx risk on a fund of funds portfolio?

In my previous job, a fund of funds, they used 3 months forward FX contracts (renewed every 3 months) to protect their portfolio against currency risk. If I do understand why forwards are useful for ...
14
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3answers
1k views

Effective Euro-USD (EURUSD) Exchange Rate Prior to Euro's Existence

Motivation: I am running a quantitative analysis that requires long-term, exchange rate data. Problem: Does anyone have methods for dealing with the EURUSD exchange rate prior to the Euro's existence?...
13
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3answers
1k views

How do I eliminate developed currency funding cross rate risk in an EMFX position?

Back in the "old days" (ie 5-10 years ago) when we wanted to be long or short an emerging currency (say the ZAR, BRL, or TRY) we simply did everything against the pre-eminent currency of the day, the ...
13
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1answer
448 views

Currency Hedged ETFs

At work we were talking about currency hedging our equity index exposures but I am struggling to understand how this happens in a typical iShares ETF. If we take the Japan ETF IJPN then we see this ...
12
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1answer
289 views

How should FX options be priced when a currency is artificially capped?

The question is inspired by yesterday's (06/09/11) historic announcement by the Swiss National Bank that it would impose a ceiling on the franc of 1.20 against the euro. I would like to know if there ...
12
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0answers
900 views

Markov-Switching Multifractal and FX Rates

Is there a better model than Markov-Switching Multifractal (MSM) for detecting regime shifts in FX rates across multiple time horizons? I am especially interested in the different aspects of the ...
11
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1answer
695 views

Processes used in quant finance

What are the main stochastic processes (and their SDE) used in quant finance? For example to model currency prices, stock prices, etc.
11
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2answers
2k views

FX forward with stochastic interest rates pricing

I would like to extend the following question about FX Forward rates in stochastic interest rate setup: "Expectation" of a FX Forward We consider a FX process $X_t = X_0 \exp( \int_0^t(r^...
11
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3answers
2k views

how do you evaluate an FX market EMS?

My firm is investigating FX EMS systems to see if we can reduce execution costs for our trading strategies that involve FX (not low latency). The liquidity providers are a few major banks. We're ...
10
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2answers
830 views

FX Tick Data question

Anyone can tell me what the first column and the last column in this FX tick dataset mean? The first seems like some kind of ID, and what D in the last column mean? 368412956 AUD/CAD 12/30/2007 ...
10
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2answers
2k views

Why does this Co-integrated basket look too good to be true?

You need quantmod & tseries in R to run this: ...
9
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6answers
2k views

Which data sources are available for cryptocurrencies?

I am primarily looking for price and market cap histories for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, zcash, ... What are some good data sources and APIs where I can download history as well as get ...
9
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2answers
9k views

Why FX Vanilla Options are quoted in volatility

I've been curious why vanilla options are quoted (and traded) in terms of volatility. Considering that every financial institution has its own options pricing model, volatility as an input would cause ...
9
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1answer
160 views

How should you manage lot sizes in this situation?

Imagine that prior to entering the market you know beforehand the profit factor of similar situations. For example: ...
8
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2answers
4k views

Pricing of a Foreign Exchange Vanilla Option

To understand how Bloomberg prices foreign exchange vanilla options , I extract the following screenshot from its OVML function. The Black-Scholes formua for vanilla options are \begin{split} & P=...
8
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3answers
6k views

Where can someone get free (or very cheap) high frequency tick forex data?

I am currently working on a large data set (approx 80 million data points over 10 years). I would like another set of data that has one currency in common. Eg, I have EUR/USD and would like USD/CNY or ...
8
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2answers
9k views

Interpolating FX forward points

When computing an FX forward rate for an expiry that is not explicitly quoted, it seems to me that a reasonable way to do it is log-linear interpolation of the two nearest outright forward rates, ...
8
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2answers
741 views

Looking for Research Paper on Creation of Currency Baskets

I came across a paper, not sure it originated from academia or a blog or such, that reported on applying principal components to build currency baskets from a set of individual currency pairs and to ...
8
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1answer
663 views

Distribution of profit/loss for retail traders in FX

I've heard that 90% of retail investors in FX lose money. I want to analyze this in more detail. Question: Is there some literature that describes the statistics of profit/loss for retail traders in ...
8
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1answer
385 views

How to perform Empirical Mode Decomposition?

I am trying to use the EMD applied to EURUSD open price to train a machine learning algo (RVM). I have run only once the EMD on my training set and once on the training+test set. The results on the ...
8
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1answer
1k views

Back office processing for FX trades

Can someone provide (or point me to) a summary of back office processing nuances specific to FX trading? For example, I know that there are several FX-specific risks that must be managed. They include ...
8
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0answers
635 views

compute time from FX forward, how use DEPO rates?

assume I have following delta-term vol data from broker: ...
7
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3answers
3k views

How is historical data for forex collected or computed?

I'm looking at four sources of forex data, as compiled in the question, What data sources are available online? And I think I must be misunderstanding something, perhaps something fundamental, but I'm ...
7
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2answers
2k views

Statistical models for exchange rates?

What stochastics processes (if any) are used to model currencies exchange rates and how good are such models ? References on subj. are also highly welcome.
7
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3answers
773 views

Transaction Costs for Currency Pairs

I have been aggregating some tick data from Oanda's streaming API to try and get an idea of the relative cost and best time to trade different currency pairs. The idea was to plot the spread of the ...
7
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1answer
11k views

Understanding the GDAX price chart [closed]

I'm a beginner looking at the USD-BTC price chart on gdax: https://www.gdax.com/trade/BTC-USD It looks like this: I'm trying to work out what the top graph means. Can anyone tell me what each of ...
7
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2answers
1k views

How to derive appropriate volatility for a binary option (with strike/term) from market data?

I am valuing a binary FX option (european) with a defined strike and term (2Y). I'm using a closed form solution based on Black-Scholes framework. How can I derive the appropriate volatility to use ...
7
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2answers
1k views

VaR mapping - Forward Foreign Currency Contract

I have a question about VaR mapping for FX forwards. Please bear with me while I outline the problem. Philippe Jorion's book discusses VaR mapping; a means to break down complex instruments into ...
6
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2answers
1k views

Why do we usually use normal distribution and not Laplace distribution to generate stochastic process?

When working with a stochastic process based on brownian motion, the increments have normal (gaussian) distribution. However, it seems that a Laplace distribution, with density: $$f(t) = \frac{\...
6
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1answer
225 views

CNY Devaluation: Why EUR up, USD down?

The second unexpected devaluation of the Chinese currency CNY caused some turbulent market movements in currencies today. I was surprised that the EUR went to a 1-week high against the USD up by ...
6
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1answer
21k views

Implied interest rate from FX swap

This is not homework. I am trying to calculate the implied interest rate of one currency (C2) using an FX swap and the interest rate of another currency (C1 - base). I have the following: Spot: 7....
6
votes
1answer
276 views

OpenGamma's Strata - Computational Overhead

I've been looking at the open-source library Strata (maintained by OpenGamma), which is written in Java. Now, upon inspection of the FX Forward Pricer and Payment Pricer I noticed two things: All ...
6
votes
1answer
486 views

Known Forex Market Trends

As the title implies, is there anywhere I can find (or would anyone be kind enough to make) a [obviously far from comprehensive] list of known connections between a currency’s trends and world markets....
6
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1answer
727 views

FX option history

I am testing my model and I am interested in options prices on EUR|USD for Jan, 2011. The history can be even daily - but I have never had a deal with fx options, so I don't know where start to look ...
6
votes
1answer
542 views

FX Forward pricing with correlation between FX and Zero-Cupon

I would like to extend my question about about FX Forward rates in stochastic interest rate setup: FX forward with stochastic interest rates pricing We consider a FX process $X_t = X_0 \exp( \int_0^t(...
6
votes
1answer
680 views

How to compute returns and daily VaR of a currency position?

I have a Forex trading account with a base currency USD. I am holding a position in EUR/JPY and would like to estimate my daily VaR. If I compute the EUR/JPY returns using the historic prices this ...
5
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4answers
495 views

In FX trading, is the risk for long positions higher than for short positions, or vice versa?

Having done FX trading as a hobby for nearly two years now (and having made some profit overall), I now have got a fundamental question which I think I already have the answer to, but I would like to ...
5
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2answers
295 views

Predicting the Future FX Spot Rates

Say I need to predict what the spot rate between USD and CAD will be in 3 months. What will be the most accurate measure or model that I could possibly use? Does the 3 month forward rate necessarily ...
5
votes
3answers
4k views

Cross Currency Swap pricing

I have seen two methods for calculating the value of a xccy swap - 1) Convert the future foreign payments to the base currency using forward FX rates, net with the base currency payments and ...
5
votes
2answers
3k views

Computing FX forward delivery dates

I'm looking for a precise definition of how FX outright delivery dates are computed. Chapter 1 of the book 'Foreign Exchange Option Pricing: A Practitioners Guide' (this chapter can be found here) ...
5
votes
1answer
389 views

Inferring highest bid and lowest ask from forex trade data

I have historical trade data for every trade on a forex exchange, whcih includes the following data: Time the trade was made Amount, in currency A Price, in currency B I have also used this to ...
5
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2answers
865 views

Valuation of open FX-Forward

So called closed FX-Forwards are well known forward contracts where some amount of foreign currency is bought at a specified date in the future for a price fixed "today". Such contracts can be ...
5
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3answers
3k views

Are there Python algorithmic trading libraries supporting forex?

I know about zipline and ultrafinance, but as far as I know, they don't support fx trading. Which libraries do?
5
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1answer
288 views

Equivalency of FX forwards and FX fixed for fixed swaps? Are they still the same under multiple curves environment?

I am encountering two approaches for valuation of FX swaps (fixed for fixed, e.g. fixed USD payments for fixed EUR payments) which seem to result into different values although in theory they should ...
5
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0answers
310 views

EUR/PLN and EUR/USD delta-term-vol surface quoting convension

does anyone know for sure what is the FX market convension to quote delta-term pairs for EUR/PLN, for EUR/USD. I know that for EUR/PLN it should be delta p.a forward, for EUR/USD it should be delta ...