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Questions tagged [implied-volatility]

The volatility of the price of the underlying security that is implied by the market price of an option based on an option pricing model.

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Volatility surface fitting, interpolation and extension from sparse data

There are some nice papers about constrained spline fitting essentially giving you a smoothing and arb free surface. I am focusing on the oil market here: The market is essentially split in a very ...
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1answer
36 views

Smoothing of Implied Volatilty

I'm using ATM 30D implied volatility in a model I'm building, but need to smooth out the data. Is the best way just to use exponential smoothing or are there any better alternatives?
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2answers
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How is volatility different from variance?

I always thought volatility was just variance ^ (1/2). Now I'm reading this book and it's saying that the two are different concepts. Excerpts include: Partly due to its use in Black-Scholes, ...
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1answer
93 views

Splitting theta from vol carry

What is the best way to splitting theta and vol carry on say a long calendar trade? Basically trying to split the "good" carry component of a trade from the "bad" carry (theta) which could be earned ...
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1answer
52 views

implied volatility indice and implied volatility [closed]

Can anybody explain to me Why should we calculate implied volatility if there is already an implied volatility index where implied volatility is already calculated??? I can't understand the difference
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STEPS to calculate implied volatility? [duplicate]

please what are the STEPS to calculate implied volatility for the German stock market?
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24 views

Data request: Option prices for a liquid index/stock

Currently doing a course project on option pricing as a part of my undergraduate studies. However I cannot find a free dataset $D=[d_1,d_2,...,d_N]$, which would represent a time-serie of daily option ...
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1answer
35 views

Filter options used in the construction of implied volatility surface

Currently trying to model the IV Surface using the APPL options, to compare how different models of the underlying move the IV Surface. However, after getting the data, I've seen that some option ...
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51 views

How to price equity options using a Black76 implied volatility surface?

I would like to calculate the fair value of american and european options on various equities and indices using QuantLib C++. Since I do have discrete dividends available for most underlyings, I use <...
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1answer
59 views

VXX Put pricing

Last week at Friday's close, the Dec 14 37.5 Put options were selling for \$.68 with VXX at \$40.29. This week at Friday's close, the Dec 21 37.5 Put options were selling for \$.38 with VXX at \$40.50....
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1answer
82 views

Basic questions on options, implied volatility and SPY

I am a bit confused about the impact of implied volatility on options, SPY options especially. I know that option's price decays with time and that is positively correlated with implied volatility but ...
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1answer
67 views

Black Scholes on Eurodollar Options

I am trying to replicate the Black Scholes results of CME option calculator for options on Eurodollar Options. (link) I am trying to replicate the implied volatility result by unaltering the spot and ...
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1answer
112 views

Why are implied volatility and the volatility required for an option to be profitable two different things?

SPY currently trades at $278, a put option expiring in 7 days against SPY, at this strike price, quotes \$2.40. This means one person (the option buyer) is betting SPY will quote below $280.40 (278 + ...
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Black-Scholes IV from Characteristic Function

I'm trying to follow Gatheral 2006 on his derivation of the BSIV from a characteristic function. The most relevant formula is (5.7) page 60. $$\int_0^\infty\frac{du}{u^2+(1/4)}\Re[e^{-iuk}\left(\...
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1answer
64 views

For equity options, does the implied vol change if the price of the underlying does?

For example, consider S&P options. My reasoning is rooted in the fact that VIX returns and S&P returns have a negative relationship, since VIX is a measure of S&P options' implied vol. ...
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1answer
121 views

Modern market conventions for interpreting interest rate swaptions quotations in a negative interest rate environment

I have broker data and I see three sets of swaption vol data: Lognormal (Black) Shifted Lognormal (Black with displaced diffusion) Normal (Bachelier) The quotes are given by the following key (Date, ...
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1answer
147 views

Realized volatility forecast vs Implied volatility

I have forecasts of realized volatility, as well as implied volatility for individual traded options of the S&P500. I want to simulate a simple trading strategy; that is, buy signal=1 if ...
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1answer
94 views

Calibration of parameters of implied vol smile

Here is the book Foreign Exchange Option Pricing: A Practitioner’s Guide, p.56 by Clark (2015). The context is a little bit long. I summery my understanding as follow: We first assume the form of ...
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Wrong understanding of implied vol cannot be linear interpolated

There is a well known conclusion that implied vol cannot be linear interpolated. But I am not sure this interpolation is for ...
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1answer
109 views

Linear interpolation of local vol no arbitrage

We already know the equivalence between local vol, implied vol and option price and there ...
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1answer
81 views

Implied volatility for American options- time to expiration?

I am trying to compute the implied volatility of the OBM contract (on Euronext), using R, and I was wondering if, for the time to maturity, I should put the time until the contract expires or the time ...
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0answers
64 views

Expected VIX at different levels of SPX

I'm looking for a model that computes the expected VIX based on SPX price moves. For instance, SPX is currently at around 2650, and VIX is at 24. If SPX jumps to 2600, at what level would the VIX be? ...
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98 views

Arbitrage free smoothing of volatility smile - cubic spline - implementation procedure

I am studying the paper Arbitrage-Free Smoothing of the Implied Volatility Surface, from Matthias R. Fengler (https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/6978470.pdf). The problem I want to solve is much simpler ...
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1answer
77 views

Suggestions of papers for computing market implied probability distribution function

I need suggestions of papers that propose simple and fast methods (not heavily dependent on simulations, nut can depend on simulation) to derive the market implicit probability distribution function ...
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1answer
57 views

Of what use is this implied volatility formula?

From a paper I am reading, it is written These equations do not make any sense. If $s = k$, i.e. if we are pricing ATM options, then this volatility is identically zero, hence useless. How am I to ...
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1answer
135 views

Interpretation of IV and its use in stock movement prediction

I would like to validate my understanding of IV as a prediction tool. Black-Scholes model is based on the assumption that rate of return of a stock is a Wiener process: $$ \frac{dS_t}{S_t} =\mu \,...
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0answers
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suggestion for NDX volatility index prior to 2000

NDX index is available since 1984 in Bloomberg. There's VXN index that represents the implied volatility of NDX, which is available since 2001. I need some index or series that represents implied ...
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1answer
92 views

Approximate Hagan formula for SABR model with negative beta

While looking into fixing the $\beta$ parameter (based the following regression: $\text{ln } \sigma^{ATM}_t = \text{ln } \alpha - (1-\beta)\text{ln }F_t$, as explained in West (2004), page 6) before ...
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0answers
25 views

Remaining variance and historical variance in Black-Scholes with term structure

When pricing an European vanilla option in a Black-Scholes world with deterministic volatility term structure, what matters is the remaining variance between today $t$ and maturity $T$, i.e. the ...
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2answers
138 views

Why do we need to calibrate vega?

I was going through some paid video on options. The tutor in the video asked the following question: Person $A$ has the following portfolio at the start of April Portfolio of options with vega $20,...
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1answer
151 views

SABR ATM volatility

The ATM implied volatility is important in SABR when calibrating the model. Let's consider the ATM vol (for a european call option): $$\sigma = \frac{\alpha}{f^{1-\beta}} \left[ 1+ \left(\frac{(1-\...
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1answer
161 views

Are there methods of calculating Implied Volatility in the stock market, other than Black-Scholes?

(I've gone through many questions/posts on quant StackExchange and only find responses about Black-Scholes)
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51 views

Calculating the implied density from the volatility smile

Suppose I have a volatility smile for a certain underlying at a given maturity. This implies a certain density for the underlying at that maturity, which can be explicitly computed, via a corollary to ...
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2answers
223 views

Interest rates forward implied volatility models

I'm trying to find out which model to use to price a pur forward volatility product named VolBond marketed by structuring desks currently. Let me introduce the products first: Example 1: You pay 100 ...
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1answer
198 views

Different versions of sticky strike, moneyness and delta

I head a lot of versions of those three concepts: sticky strike, sticky moneyness and ...
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82 views

Probability of Implied Volatility Move [closed]

I want to see the probability of Implied Volatility of an underlying moving up or down from its current position. Would it just be 50% probability of going up and 50% of it going down? Because I've ...
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0answers
47 views

What is price level dependence of volatility

I am trying to understand the term level dependence of volatility as mentioned in Pricing of options on assets with level dependent stochastic volatility. Is this same as leverage effect mentioned in ...
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2answers
210 views

Vega of exotic options

I'am wondering if there is a standard definition to the Vega of an exotic product when the underlying model is not Black-Scholes. Let me give some examples : What is the Vega if the price is ...
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3answers
794 views

Forward implied volatility

Can one price accurately by only using vanilla options a derivative that is exposed/sensitive mainly to the forward volatility ? If it is impossible in the real world, what do we mean by saying "...
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Calculating daily underlying move from options volatility?

My broker has provided a risk report that shows our options book shocked at various standard deviation moves of the underlying. Their report has the future at $66.64, ATM Vol at 23.74% with 2 days ...
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2answers
676 views

What is the difference between forward volatility swap and FVA?

Specifically looking at FX but i guess it's a general question. any good reference would be appreciated. FVAs are not mentioned in Derman's paper ("More than you ever wanted to Know about volatility ...
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51 views

Effect of Volatility Regime on Volatility Smile

For short-term FX options, I find empirically that the degree of curvature of the smile (OTM/ATM in %) is higher in low volatility environments. Similar results are found by Pena et al. ("Why do we ...
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1answer
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Estimating at-the-money volatility where at-the-money option is absent from the market

I am trying to estimate the intraday ATM volatility in a market where the the strike prices are relatively sparse thus the ATM option may not exist (let's say the closest strike is about 2% away from ...
2
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1answer
51 views

Literature on quoting vol surfaces in the absence of listed option prices [duplicate]

What are some of the modern methods used to price equity volatilities "the most accurately possible" when there are very few listed derivative prices available or even none at all? Do the pricers in ...
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0answers
58 views

Implied Volatility of a call plus its delta

I would like to understand if exists a smart way to imply the volatility from a quote that is the sum of a call and its delta: is there any method other than simple iterative minimization?
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2answers
155 views

How should I convert FX Volatility Surface from one base currency to another?

This might be a very simple question but I wanted to understand how to convert FX volatility surface points which are quoted in one base currency to another currency? Eg I have fx vol quoted in EUR ...
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1answer
74 views

SPX Convexity Spread

In this report on volatility from BNP Paribas, https://globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com/r/Volatility_Express_20171128.pdf?t=BG3REXwMP3NZJRN7wY5Vt&stream=true it states on Page 10 that the SPX ...
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1answer
240 views

Comparing historical to implied volatility

As title states, I am trying to compare historical to implied volatility of a stock. I approximate the single implied volatility (30 days forward) of the stock by first finding 2 series that ...
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0answers
66 views

Vega with SVI Gatheral bumps

How would one go about computing a vega profile of an exotic derivative where the volatility surface is modeled using Gatheral's SVI parameterization? In particular, I am thinking about bumping each ...
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1answer
271 views

CMS spread vanilla options quotation

How are vanilla (call/put) options on CMS spread quoted on the markets ? Through an implied (normal/lognormal) volatility with a normal/lognormal model on the spread in the forward measure ?