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Questions tagged [implied-volatility]

The volatility of the price of the underlying security that is implied by the market price of an option based on an option pricing model.

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347 views

Variance swap volatility - ATMF vol, Skew and Curvature

In a pure diffusion setting, it is a well known result that the volatility $\sigma_T$ of a fresh-start variance swap of maturity $T$ as seen of $t=0$ verifies \begin{align} \sigma_T^2 &= \Bbb{E}_0^...
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0answers
98 views

No arbitrage conditions for normal implied volatility

usually the term implied volatility refers to Black-Scholes implied volatility (also Log-Normal volatility): it is defined as a quantity which when plugged in the Black-Scholes formula returns the ...
2
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0answers
72 views

Fitting Gatheral's SVI model

I was considering using Gatheral's formula for fitting option skew. In the specific (commodity) market that I am concerned with, the underlying is ca. at 50, and typically 5 integer strikes left and ...
28
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4answers
19k views

How to derive the implied probability distribution from B-S volatilities?

The general problem I have is visualization of the implied distribution of returns of a currency pair. I usually use QQplots for historical returns, so for example versus the normal distribution: ...
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2answers
132 views

What does Volatility Smile tell?

Could you please share your opinions about Volatility Smile? What does it tell us when it gets more convex or when its level changes over time or any other change on it. Any paper/work/blog ...
2
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0answers
111 views

Jim Gatheral's claim on the decay of the effect of jumps on the final return distribution

I got a full answer for my question on Jim Gatheral's book The Volatility Surface. I am going to try my luck again on another question on the same book. In Section The Decay of Skew Due to Jumps on ...
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1answer
74 views

python scipy optimize minimize arguments for Implied Volatility

I am having some trouble getting the 'correct' solution to a function where I am trying to utilize scipy.optimize.minimize. In the code below, I create a function <...
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0answers
62 views

Using SVI model for IV surface

I am using well-known paper of J. Gatheral & A. Jacquier Arbitrage-free SVI volatility surface to explore SVI model. on the page 6 in the bottom is statet that The SVI-Jump-Wings (SVI-JW) ...
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1answer
135 views

What is market standard model in equity, FX and interest rates exotics?

Is there any industry consensus about the model to use for pricing exotics in equity, FX and interest rates? I assume that for vanilla options they all use Black model, but how about exotics? Also, ...
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2answers
302 views

The name conventions such as ATM, Risk reversal and Butterflies to construct volatility surface

Why people call (vol call - vol put) risk reversal when risk reversal actually is (call 25 delta -put detlta +25)? when constructing volatility surface? The vol of risk revesal should not be vol call -...
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1answer
67 views

Volatility surface tenors

I don't think this has been asked before, but are the tenors on a volatility surface out of spot date for the currency pair or out of value T+0?
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0answers
25 views

The Free Boundary SABR: Natural Extension to Negative Rates

In the paper by Antonov, Konikov and Spector An alternative approximation for the SABR model is presented. I'm interested to implement the formula for the ATM swaptions implied volatilities in the ...
4
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2answers
198 views

Sticky Strike or Sticky Delta

Given market tick data for a single tenor for a futures and a set of options on the futures, how can I say if the IVs in the market at this point is sticky strike or sticky delta? I was trying to ...
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2answers
345 views

How do they calculate stocks implied volatility?

I know the construction of Black-Scholes model and how do we solve it for an Implied Volatility. But in general, which option ...
2
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2answers
180 views

How is volatility different from variance?

I always thought volatility was just variance ^ (1/2). Now I'm reading this book and it's saying that the two are different concepts. Excerpts include: Partly due to its use in Black-Scholes, ...
8
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1answer
193 views

Vanilla Option Prices from Local Vol Surface (using neither MC nor PDE)

There are numerous papers that describe the derivation of the Local-Vol equation using available market prices of options. For example: Dupire's formula (see e.g. OpenGamma (2013)) gives us LV in ...
4
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0answers
73 views

Alternative Method for Determining Option-Implied pdf

As I am refining a pricing model to incorporate skew, and not just ATM volatilities, I need to create random realizations of the underlying consistent with the skew-implied pdf. When searching, one ...
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0answers
46 views

Term structure of the ATM implied volatility of short term weekly options

It's an empirical fact that the implied volatility of short term weekly options are significantly higher than options that expire in a few weeks, and the volatility of the near term options get even ...
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2answers
590 views

What is the formula for Intraday and overnight volatility?

I'm a noob trying to calculate IntraDay and Overnight Volatility. For Intraday volatility we can get the annualization factor with the following: Length (hours, Open to Close): 6.5 Time frames per ...
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2answers
939 views

Implied Volatility of stock on Think or Swim

Think or swim has this thing where they have do a implied volatility of a stock. I have chatted with the TOS people but they aren't terribly helpful. Regardless they did send me two images of what ...
3
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2answers
205 views

What is the Brownian motion in the model for the return of a stock price trying to capture?

I have read that in the derivation of the Black-Scholes PDE, we assume that the return of a stock $S$ is given by $$\frac{dS}{S}=\mu dt+\sigma dB$$ where $\mu$ is the average growth of $S$, $\sigma$ ...
3
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1answer
163 views

What is forward moneyness and how to calculate it?

I'm now studying the concept "implied volatility", and my teacher gave us a figure about the implied volatility with respect to the moneyness which is expressed by ...
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1answer
45 views

Filter options used in the construction of implied volatility surface

Currently trying to model the IV Surface using the APPL options, to compare how different models of the underlying move the IV Surface. However, after getting the data, I've seen that some option ...
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0answers
37 views

What volatility to use to estimate BDT?

I am attempting to estimate the value of a bond with prepayment option (callable bond). In order to do so, I am fitting a lattice to the Libor Swap curve using a BDT model. The measurement date is ...
0
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1answer
75 views

VXX Put pricing

Last week at Friday's close, the Dec 14 37.5 Put options were selling for \$.68 with VXX at \$40.29. This week at Friday's close, the Dec 21 37.5 Put options were selling for \$.38 with VXX at \$40.50....
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0answers
52 views

Volatility surface fitting, interpolation and extension from sparse data

There are some nice papers about constrained spline fitting essentially giving you a smoothing and arb free surface. I am focusing on the oil market here: The market is essentially split in a very ...
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1answer
40 views

Smoothing of Implied Volatilty

I'm using ATM 30D implied volatility in a model I'm building, but need to smooth out the data. Is the best way just to use exponential smoothing or are there any better alternatives?
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3answers
313 views

clarification to use collocation methods to get arbitrage free sabr

I'm reading the following two papers (first, second) which suggest a so called "stochastic collocation method" to obtain an arbitrage free volatility surface very close to an initial smile stemming ...
3
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1answer
827 views

FX Option strikes from ATM, RR, BF quotes

I am trying to replicate the results in Consistent Pricing of FX Options, A. Castagna and F. Mercurio. However, when I calculate the strike prices for 25-delta put and call and ATM I cannot get the ...
4
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1answer
116 views

Splitting theta from vol carry

What is the best way to splitting theta and vol carry on say a long calendar trade? Basically trying to split the "good" carry component of a trade from the "bad" carry (theta) which could be earned ...
6
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4answers
748 views

Black-Scholes: Why the focus on volatility?

We know Black-Scholes is an imperfect model for options pricing. Why is so much of the analysis of its defects focused on implied volatility? The fact that IV varies for the same stock at the same ...
7
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1answer
127 views

Linear interpolation of local vol no arbitrage

We already know the equivalence between local vol, implied vol and option price and there ...
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1answer
60 views

implied volatility indice and implied volatility [closed]

Can anybody explain to me Why should we calculate implied volatility if there is already an implied volatility index where implied volatility is already calculated??? I can't understand the difference
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1answer
191 views

SABR ATM volatility

The ATM implied volatility is important in SABR when calibrating the model. Let's consider the ATM vol (for a european call option): $$\sigma = \frac{\alpha}{f^{1-\beta}} \left[ 1+ \left(\frac{(1-\...
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0answers
29 views

Data request: Option prices for a liquid index/stock

Currently doing a course project on option pricing as a part of my undergraduate studies. However I cannot find a free dataset $D=[d_1,d_2,...,d_N]$, which would represent a time-serie of daily option ...
2
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1answer
363 views

Comparing Implied Vol. to Historical Vol. using intraday data

I'm interested in estimating what my profit/loss would be for continuously gamma scalping a delta hedged option over the course of one day, using historical intra-day price data. I found an equation ...
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0answers
70 views

How to price equity options using a Black76 implied volatility surface?

I would like to calculate the fair value of american and european options on various equities and indices using QuantLib C++. Since I do have discrete dividends available for most underlyings, I use <...
9
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1answer
431 views

“Extract” the density of the underlying, given the implied volatility “surface”

Suppose given implied volatility quotations $\widehat{\sigma}(T_i,K_j)$ of call options on an underlying $S$ for various expiries $T_i$'s and strikes $K_j$'s. I am interested in the following problem :...
3
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1answer
95 views

Basic questions on options, implied volatility and SPY

I am a bit confused about the impact of implied volatility on options, SPY options especially. I know that option's price decays with time and that is positively correlated with implied volatility but ...
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3answers
1k views

Forward implied volatility

Can one price accurately by only using vanilla options a derivative that is exposed/sensitive mainly to the forward volatility ? If it is impossible in the real world, what do we mean by saying "...
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5answers
7k views

What is a regime switch?

I've come across the term regime switch in volatilities when reading about the modelling of interest rates but could not find a definition for a regime switch and what a regime is. Can somebody give ...
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1answer
80 views

Black Scholes on Eurodollar Options

I am trying to replicate the Black Scholes results of CME option calculator for options on Eurodollar Options. (link) I am trying to replicate the implied volatility result by unaltering the spot and ...
7
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3answers
554 views

Parameters for pricing option on EDF

Ladies and Gents, Im writing a quick routine to calculate implied vols for options on EUR$ futures with Bloomberg data. My question concerns the part where I have all my inputs and am ready to pass ...
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1answer
117 views

Why are implied volatility and the volatility required for an option to be profitable two different things?

SPY currently trades at $278, a put option expiring in 7 days against SPY, at this strike price, quotes \$2.40. This means one person (the option buyer) is betting SPY will quote below $280.40 (278 + ...
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0answers
50 views

Black-Scholes IV from Characteristic Function

I'm trying to follow Gatheral 2006 on his derivation of the BSIV from a characteristic function. The most relevant formula is (5.7) page 60. $$\int_0^\infty\frac{du}{u^2+(1/4)}\Re[e^{-iuk}\left(\...
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1answer
115 views

Suggestions of papers for computing market implied probability distribution function

I need suggestions of papers that propose simple and fast methods (not heavily dependent on simulations, nut can depend on simulation) to derive the market implicit probability distribution function ...
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1answer
71 views

For equity options, does the implied vol change if the price of the underlying does?

For example, consider S&P options. My reasoning is rooted in the fact that VIX returns and S&P returns have a negative relationship, since VIX is a measure of S&P options' implied vol. ...
4
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1answer
223 views

Modern market conventions for interpreting interest rate swaptions quotations in a negative interest rate environment

I have broker data and I see three sets of swaption vol data: Lognormal (Black) Shifted Lognormal (Black with displaced diffusion) Normal (Bachelier) The quotes are given by the following key (Date, ...
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1answer
102 views

Calibration of parameters of implied vol smile

Here is the book Foreign Exchange Option Pricing: A Practitioner’s Guide, p.56 by Clark (2015). The context is a little bit long. I summery my understanding as follow: We first assume the form of ...
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122 views

Arbitrage free smoothing of volatility smile - cubic spline - implementation procedure

I am studying the paper Arbitrage-Free Smoothing of the Implied Volatility Surface, from Matthias R. Fengler (https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/6978470.pdf). The problem I want to solve is much simpler ...