Questions tagged [implied-volatility]

The volatility of the price of the underlying security that is implied by the market price of an option based on an option pricing model.

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11
votes
1answer
631 views

“Extract” the density of the underlying, given the implied volatility “surface”

Suppose given implied volatility quotations $\widehat{\sigma}(T_i,K_j)$ of call options on an underlying $S$ for various expiries $T_i$'s and strikes $K_j$'s. I am interested in the following problem :...
10
votes
1answer
974 views

Variance swap volatility - ATMF vol, Skew and Curvature

In a pure diffusion setting, it is a well known result that the volatility $\sigma_T$ of a fresh-start variance swap of maturity $T$ as seen of $t=0$ verifies \begin{align} \sigma_T^2 &= \Bbb{E}_0^...
9
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0answers
316 views

Jim Gatheral's ansatz

In the Ansatz section of Jim Gatheral's book Volatility Surface (page 32), he assumes $$\mathbb E[x_s|x_T]=x_T\frac{\hat w_s}{\hat w_T}$$ where $\hat w_t:=\int_0^t \hat v_s ds$ is the expected total ...
8
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0answers
646 views

compute time from FX forward, how use DEPO rates?

assume I have following delta-term vol data from broker: ...
7
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0answers
479 views

Arbitrage free smoothing of volatility smile - cubic spline - implementation procedure

I am studying the paper Arbitrage-Free Smoothing of the Implied Volatility Surface, from Matthias R. Fengler (https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/6978470.pdf). The problem I want to solve is much simpler ...
6
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0answers
542 views

(C++) Monte Carlo pricer for SABR model to test Hagan / Paulot formulas

I'm trying to test the so-called Hagan formula (p.6 of this paper) and the Paulot formula, order 1 only (eq. (43) p.19 of this paper. For this, i'm trying to use both Euler and Milstein scheme ...
6
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0answers
259 views

implied volatility and strike price

Assume for simplicity that the expiration time of an option is $1$ the initial stock price is $1$ and there is no dividend yield and the risk free return is $0$. How is it possible to show that the ...
6
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0answers
218 views

How companies choose earnings release dates, & effect on Implied Volatility

A company's earnings release date significantly affects weekly or monthly option prices/implied volatility. For companies that typically release earnings on the cusp of monthly options expiration, ...
5
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0answers
214 views

Quantitative approaches to measuring the effectiveness of a Stock Option Pricing Model?

My question contains many parts, but I will try to keep it somewhat focused. I am primarily looking for a framework to evaluate the accuracy of a stock-focused Options Pricing Model. One of the ...
5
votes
1answer
113 views

How are VIX futures being priced when the VIX itself is not being calculated because of circuit breakers

I see that CBOE has halted trading all SPX options, which means the VIX cannot be calculated. Yet VIX futures are still trading and we are very close to the last trade date for the March contract. I ...
4
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0answers
90 views

Anyone know if this daily report discontinue to publish? Goldman Sachs - “Global Index Volatility and Correlation Monitor”

I used to receive this daily report in my workplace from Goldman Sachs mailing list but the mailing list discontinued in May 2019 without any notice. The report is an pdf attachment which send from "...
4
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0answers
189 views

The error term of Hagan's approximation of Black's vol in SABR

Hagans approximation of Black's implied vol in SABR is very! difficult to understand fully. But I want to ask in here if anyone can tell me more about the error term. Consider the paper: http://web....
4
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0answers
57 views

Measuring implied move priced into an event

It's well known that options price in an expected move in the underlying going into events, such as earnings announcements. I currently measure this implied move by computing the forward variance ...
4
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0answers
377 views

Volatility of a stock basket

to determine the volatility of a basket of stocks, I often use the following formula: $\sigma_{basket}=\sum_{i}\sum_{j}w_i w_j \sigma_i \sigma_j \rho_{ij}$ where the $\sigma$ are the constituents' ...
4
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0answers
91 views

Alternative Method for Determining Option-Implied pdf

As I am refining a pricing model to incorporate skew, and not just ATM volatilities, I need to create random realizations of the underlying consistent with the skew-implied pdf. When searching, one ...
4
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0answers
2k views

Implied volatility from American options using python

I am currently trying to construct volatility surface from american option prices (using Cox-Ross-Rubinstein tree) in Python 2.7. Below you can find the code I came up with. Any corrections would be ...
4
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0answers
232 views

What is the longest number of consecutive days that options implied volatility has stayed “extremely high” for any particular underlying?

Curious as to whether or not there is any sort of all time record. Any index, future, or stock will do. Volatility must be well above the average 1 year volatility for all periods.
3
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0answers
92 views

Why SVI does not fit well short-maturity options?

As I understood, the SVI is widely used among practitioners. However, it is mentioned in many published papers (including ones written by Gatheral), that the SVI model does not fit well short-maturity ...
3
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0answers
57 views

For any twice differential continuous function C(T, K), does there exist a sigma(t, S) that can reproduce C(T, K)?

In the Dupire's paper, he assumes that there exits a function $\sigma(t,S)$ that can reproduce $C(T, K)$. My question is that: is the assumption true for any twice differential continuous function $C(...
3
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0answers
68 views

Implied/Realised Vol ratio for negative rates?

I'm trying to calculate the implied vs realised vol ratio for different swaptions across major currencies. This works fine for the likes of USD and GBP as rates are positive. However I'm struggling ...
3
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0answers
94 views

Robust bounds or approximations on implied volatility skew when $\lvert \rho \rvert \rightarrow 1$

Are there any robust / non-parametric results for pure stochastic volatility models, in terms of bounds or preferably accurate approximation, for the implied volatility skew $\partial IV(k) / \partial ...
3
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0answers
63 views

How to shock the IV surface w.r.t VIX and keep AOA

I have to compute the sensitivity of a set of option prices on a single sotck (range of tenor is over the whole surface) to an increase of 100% in the VIX.. and I am trying to get to the most ...
3
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0answers
298 views

Procedure/methodology for building equity volatility surface

EDIT: I update while making progress: I am trying to build (model implied) volatility surfaces for individual equities. I will use these surfaces to calibrate models to price different derivatives (...
3
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0answers
41 views

Does convexity in the IV space means convexity in the price space?

Let's assume that we only look at OTM options to construct a Risk Neutral Density (RND). As the RND is the second derivative of the price of the option with respect to the strike, we would expect ...
3
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0answers
188 views

What are the main problems for calculating the implied volatility of in the money American put options?

As stated in the question I have a problem with calculating the implied volatility for in the money put options I have a data set of 2.6 million American style plain-vanilla call and put options. For ...
3
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0answers
178 views

Volatility surface fitting, interpolation and extension from sparse data

There are some nice papers about constrained spline fitting essentially giving you a smoothing and arb free surface. I am focusing on the oil market here: The market is essentially split in a very ...
3
votes
0answers
86 views

Expected VIX at different levels of SPX

I'm looking for a model that computes the expected VIX based on SPX price moves. For instance, SPX is currently at around 2650, and VIX is at 24. If SPX jumps to 2600, at what level would the VIX be? ...
3
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0answers
68 views

Equity Options - “How do I build a forward simulation model with regards to shocks in spot pricing and IV?”

I am trying to build a "What-If" Portfolio, consisting of a total of 20 options, across different tenors, strikes (delta), but on the same security. Simply put, the objective is for me to test the ...
3
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0answers
178 views

Relationship between Implied Volatility Curve Derivatives and the Underlying's Moments

Very probably this question has been posed before, so if someone can pose the link to the relevant question, it would be appreciated. What is the relationship between the implied volatility skew and ...
3
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0answers
73 views

Discount of Asian vs European vols

I understand the discount for Asian vs. European vol depends on time to expiry and length of averaging period. This makes sense intuitively; a short averaging period far away blurs into a single ...
3
votes
0answers
140 views

What is the relation between return volatility and return rank volatility, and how can I control the latter?

I have no experience in finance, but I've been playing around with a virtual portfolio. I'm trying to control the "rank volatility" distribution - that is, the volatility of a stock's daily rank in ...
2
votes
0answers
51 views

Implied volatility surface modelling in filtered historical simulation

What is the best way to model implied volatility surface in filtered historical simulation (other than keeping it constant)? Is it appropriate to apply GARCH-like model to every point on the surface? ...
2
votes
0answers
45 views

Hedging vega risk with varswaps

I have encountered a statement that in summary reads like this: Varswaps became popular after the LTCM meltdown due to high levels of implied volatility the market was seeing at the time. Hedge funds ...
2
votes
1answer
69 views

Conditions for implied volatility to attain a minimum value

Suppose $$ dS = \sigma S dW $$ and $$ d\sigma = a(\sigma,t) dt + b (\sigma,t) dZ $$ with $dW dZ = \rho dt$. What are the conditions necessary such that the implied volatility skew of vanilla ...
2
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0answers
65 views

Hagan et. al original argument for SABR

In the original SABR paper (Hagan et al 2002 ), the introduction of the famous model is motivated by the observation that local volatility models spot dynamics work the wrong way. As the spot ...
2
votes
0answers
87 views

Intraday and Intra-Week Pattern of Implied Volatility in FX market

Q1. How does implied vol changes from market opening time to market close time? I have read that it decreases during the day i.e. it opens high and closes low. what is intuitive and mathematical ...
2
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0answers
67 views

What model do market makers in equity derivatives commonly use to price, hedge, and fit the IV surface?

What is the industry standard/common model used by market makers in equity derivatives to trade across the IV surface?
2
votes
0answers
85 views

Local volatility Formula and How To use it

I'm new to Volatility Modelling, so the content of this question may be completely wrong and th question naive. I'm reading "The volatility surface" by Gatheral. I'm trying to get a sense of the first ...
2
votes
0answers
69 views

Vol surface fitting to options on commodity futures

Trying to fit variants of SVI (Zeliade method, SSVI etc) to options on futures price data. One of the core ideas of the SVI parameterization is the absence of calendar spread arbitrage. I think the ...
2
votes
0answers
39 views

How to derive the half slope rule from asymptotic relation between implied and local volatility?

In their paper(https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0764444200017493) BERESTYCKI, BUSCA, and FLORENT proved an asymptotical relation(for short maturity) between implied and local ...
2
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0answers
35 views

Dimension reduction for worst of basket on $min(S_1, S_2)$

Suppose we want to price an exotic equity which is a function of $min(S_1, S_2)$. To do this, I'm trying to compute an implied volatility surface for $min(S_1, S_2)$ and then price the option using ...
2
votes
0answers
76 views

Finding Jump Probability For Time Series Data

I'm relatively new here, so if it seems like I'm asking a bad question, go easy on me. So I was looking at the Merton Jump Diffusion Stochastic Model on Turing Finance's article. Instead of creating ...
2
votes
0answers
87 views

Is it possible to compute implied returns from volatility?

If we assume that, broadly speaking: Assets in liquid markets are fairly priced to its value Volatility is predictable (volatility clustering, GARCH, etc) Investors are rewarded and earn a return for ...
2
votes
0answers
118 views

Fast implied volatility for american options

Peter Jäckel has developped a method to compute implied volatilites from option prices, called "by implication", see the papers : By Implication Let's be Rational on its website -- as well as a ...
2
votes
0answers
104 views

GARCH(1,1) one-step ahead volatility forecast biased, higher than Parkinson's HL volatility

I am trying to create one-step ahead forecasts for the S&P500 using a GARCH(1,1) model. I am using the rugarch package in R. As you can see, the forecasted points are consistently higher than the ...
2
votes
0answers
317 views

Fitting Gatheral's SVI model

I was considering using Gatheral's formula for fitting option skew. In the specific (commodity) market that I am concerned with, the underlying is ca. at 50, and typically 5 integer strikes left and ...
2
votes
0answers
78 views

The Free Boundary SABR: Natural Extension to Negative Rates

In the paper by Antonov, Konikov and Spector An alternative approximation for the SABR model is presented. I'm interested to implement the formula for the ATM swaptions implied volatilities in the ...
2
votes
0answers
72 views

Black-Scholes IV from Characteristic Function

I'm trying to follow Gatheral 2006 on his derivation of the BSIV from a characteristic function. The most relevant formula is (5.7) page 60. $$\int_0^\infty\frac{du}{u^2+(1/4)}\Re[e^{-iuk}\left(\...
2
votes
0answers
102 views

Local variance derivation by Gatheral

I've bought Gatheral's book on Local Volatility and I have troubles with understanding a part where he shows that local variance is a conditional expectation of instantaneous variance. Why in the ...
2
votes
0answers
331 views

Implied Vol skew VS Local Vol skew (as presented by Derman 1995)

I am reading Derman's article/notes regarding local volatilty: http://www.emanuelderman.com/writing/entry/the-local-volatility-surface. I am examining the graph on page 13. The Implied volatility (...