Questions tagged [inflation]
The inflation tag has no usage guidance.
78
questions
2
votes
1answer
269 views
Difference between 5Y breakeven inflation and 5Y5Y inflation forward?
I cannot figure out the difference between the two data series found here:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIE/
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIFR/
The 5Y breakeven inflation, to my ...
0
votes
1answer
152 views
Why does the rate of inflation vary over time?
Interest rates have varied significantly over the last 50+ years (source: https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart ).
Is it possible to comprehensively and succinctly ...
0
votes
1answer
73 views
Breakeven Inflation Rate vs Actual Inflation Rate Study
I am relatively new to the realm of TIPS and inflation rate and am working on a study. I wish to investigate the correlation between the breakeven inflation rate for (5Y, 10Y, 20Y) TIPS and actual ...
0
votes
0answers
16 views
Inflation and growth due to inflation canceling out in cap rate formula?
A cap rate can be described as:
K = RFRr + i + RPi + RPp – Gr – Gi + D
Where
K = cap rate
RFRr is the real risk free rate, or index-linked bond
i = average expected inflation
RPi = the inflation risk ...
0
votes
1answer
47 views
Relation between inflation rate and the exchange rate of the currency
I have been studying the relation between exchange rates and the inflation of the currencies, but I am far from understanding the most relevant factor in driving FX market players from pricing ...
0
votes
0answers
72 views
Is the price of the following inflation derivative observed/traded?
Let $M_{t\to t+2}^{\\\$}$ be the pricing kernel (SDF) from period $t$ to $t+2$. Let inflation over period $t$ to $t+1$ be denoted by $\Pi_{t \to t+1}$. Is it possible to observe the following quantity ...
0
votes
0answers
25 views
ARMAX model with rolling window for predicting inflation
First of all, similar questions like mine are answered on this forum but I never quite saw an answer to this specific question. I'm trying to predict inflation by using an AR model with exogenous ...
0
votes
1answer
103 views
Why does holding a linker give you positive carry when inflation indices move up?
My book says:
"By construction, the cash flows of inflation linked bonds are indexed, using daily indexation factors that are applied to the real price of a bond to arrive to the dirty price of ...
1
vote
1answer
71 views
House price inflation modelling
I have a data set of house prices and their corresponding features (rooms, meter squared, etc). An additional feature is the sold date of the house. The aim is to create a model that can estimate the ...
3
votes
2answers
382 views
What drives the difference between M1 & M2 money supply (in the US)?
From what I understand the only entity that controls M1 in US is the Federal Reserve. Is it true that M2-M1( M2 minus M1; the part of M2 that is NOT in M1 like timed deposits) is controlled by the ...
0
votes
1answer
146 views
IRR with Inflation Rate
I have cash inflows and cash outflows for a 7 year period and my MIRR and inflation rate. That's all the information I have.
How do I calculation the IRR taking the inflation rate into account in ...
0
votes
0answers
4 views
How to adjust a cash transfer program's income requirements for inflation?
For a study, I would like to "estimate" the income requirements for a cash transfer program on 2018 based on information from 2015. This cash transfer program has two income lines that it ...
0
votes
1answer
44 views
Do all inflation swaps reference the non-seasonally-adjusted index values?
Inflation CPI values (typically published monthly except Australia) are typically published in both SA (sseaonally adjusted) and NSA (non-seasonally adjusted) variants.
Inflation swaps reference the ...
0
votes
0answers
47 views
What are the differences between the two equations relating inflation, real interest rates and nominal interest rates?
My lecturer showed two equations to describe the relationship between inflation, nominal and real interest rates, denoted as $I, RN, RR$, respectively.
Then we have the following equations
$$
1+ RR_{1-...
2
votes
0answers
57 views
Inflation Option Modelling Approaches
I am trying to come up with a simplistic inflation option model to get a sense of the materiality of some inflation-indexed contracts containing inflation guarantees. I have a stochastic nominal IR ...
2
votes
1answer
263 views
Which is the “correct” 5Y5Y Inflation Expectation on Bloomberg, and what are the differences?
When the market talks about 5Y5Y expectation, is it referring to FWISUS55 Index, or G0169 5Y5Y BLC2 Curncy on Bloomberg? I ...
0
votes
1answer
91 views
Where to Get the Yield of One Year Constant Duration TIPS ( inflation protected bonds)
Do you know where can I get the Yield of One Year Constant Duration TIPS ( inflation protected bonds). I found the yield of 5 year, but never could get the data for one year.
Many thanks!
1
vote
1answer
27 views
How to normalise companies relative to each other? Remove the effect of macro-economy?
I want to focus on companies-performance only and as much as possible remove the effect of macro-economy. Interest rate changes, crisis, inflation etc.
There are 2 goals:
Simplification of analysis ...
0
votes
1answer
176 views
What is the most convincing method/formula for carry and rolldown (in nominal terms) of inflation protected bonds
It is interesting that there is no thorough discussion and clear derivation on this per my search. I know TIPS are complex (compared to nominal bonds). The naive use of simple spot/forward yield ...
2
votes
2answers
135 views
Calculating Implied Volatility from a put option
I am trying to find the Black-Scholes implied vol from a put option. I know how to do this in the case of a regular put option on an underlier $S(t)$ where
$$ p(t, K) = e^{-r(T-t)}\mathbb{E}_Q\Big[ (K ...
0
votes
1answer
28 views
Looking for datasets with daily inflation rate for as many countries as possible
Here's an example of the kind of thing I'm looking for https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE
I'm also happy to perform transformation on other data to get an estimated/approximated daily value if ...
1
vote
1answer
109 views
How to evaluate embedded floor option in inflation linked bonds if interbank inflation floor instruments cannot be used or do not exist
Suppose we consider simple case that only par is protected against base price index, so it is with zero coupon floor feature. How do we value this option given that there is no inflation floor ...
3
votes
1answer
988 views
Inflation swaps rate vs. Break-even rate
Can someone explain me the difference between zero coupon inflation swap rate and breakeven rate? For example, currently, US 10y zero coupon inflation swap rate is about 1.4%, while US breakeven 10y ...
1
vote
0answers
24 views
How could we use 5 year Tips minus 2 Year Tips to get insight of Inflation Expection?
I read a article where the author used the difference the between yields of 5 year Tips and 2 year Tips as a proxy of the inflation expectation. Could anyone explain me what is the logic behind this ...
1
vote
1answer
51 views
How to deflate USD inflation?
On the picture below prices of SP500 and Gold (rescaled) for last 90 years.
There are at least 3 types of distortions caused by inflation:
Slow upward trend.
Sudden jumps caused by radical changes ...
1
vote
1answer
98 views
Inflation Indexed Caplet/Floorlet
Can someone explain what is it with $\psi_{i}$ (year fraction in $[T_{i-1},T_{i}]$). The formula in Mercurio (2006) as is follows:
$N\psi_{i}P_{n}(t,T_{i})\mathbb{E}_{n}^{T_{i}}\left[\left(\omega\...
0
votes
2answers
375 views
Hull-White Calibration /Hypothetical Cap Pricing
I have a question regarding calibrating Hull-White (Extended Vasicek) Model to bond data. As you know, and stated in Mercurio (2005), zero coupon bond price in the Hull and White (1994);
$P(t,T)=A(t,...
3
votes
0answers
130 views
Looking for a Paper: RBS Guide to Inflation-Linked Products
I wonder if any of you have an access to "The Royal Bank of Scotland (2003) Guide to Inflation-Linked Products. Risk." paper. It was in the bibliography of Mercurio's "Pricing Inflation Indexed ...
1
vote
2answers
265 views
Why Consumer Price Index is linear, when it should be exponential? And what to use instead?
Consumer Price Index looks like a very nice straight line, perfectly approximated with linear function (considering it only after the 1972).
$$cpi(years) = start + ...
1
vote
0answers
56 views
Inflation TIPS - What does it mean - 10Y breakeven shorts with 0.8 beta?
"10Y breakeven shorts with 0.8 beta"
"10Y breakeven shorts with long 80% nominal to eliminate long duration bias"
Are the above two the same, what do they mean?
1
vote
1answer
45 views
In a cleared inflation swap agreement, what determines how much “collateral” a party needs to deposit into the third party escrow account?
Does realized inflation or expected future inflation determine how much money needs to be placed into the escrow account each day?
0
votes
1answer
282 views
What happens to both sides of an inflation swap agreement if there is deflation?
If there is deflation does the Inflation receiver not only pay the fixed leg but also receives a reduced CPI?
I.e. does he lose twice?
3
votes
3answers
189 views
Can an individual hedge inflation that exceeds CPI-U?
Is there a way for an individual (i.e., excluding institutional tools and using only consumer products) in the U.S. to hedge inflation over the long term greater than that measured by CPI-U? ...
1
vote
0answers
143 views
“BTP ITALIA” Inflation Linker Pricing
I have some issue with pricing of Italian linker bonds (http://www.dt.tesoro.it/export/sites/sitodt/modules/documenti_en/debito_pubblico/titoli_di_stato/BTP_Italia.pdf) . The issue is their specific ...
1
vote
0answers
105 views
How to apply multiplicative price seasonality to bond prices in quantlib?
Can someone please give a brief or any link which explains how to apply multiplicative price seasonality to inflation linked bonds in Quantlib using python modules. Have gone through most of the ...
3
votes
1answer
214 views
how to simplify Inflation year-on-year option to Zero-coupon option
Belgrade 2004 paper basically proposes that inflation year-on-year volatilities (and hence yoy options) are basically the spread vols between the Zero-coupon vols from (t0 to T) minus the zero-coupon ...
2
votes
0answers
332 views
How to build an inflation term structure in QuantLib?
This is what I've got, but I'm getting weird results. Can you spot an error?:
...
2
votes
0answers
117 views
Understanding the link between inflation and credit spreads
I found a paper which uses inflation as an independant variable for credit spread. Unfortunately, the relationship is not explained in this paper. Further research got my to the paper of Kang/Pflueger ...
3
votes
0answers
101 views
Jarrow-Yildirim $\sigma_I$
Under the Jarrow-Yildirim model, the nominal short rate $r_n$, the real rate $r_r$ and index $I$
are modelled according to the following stochastic differential equations under the Martingale measure $...
2
votes
1answer
306 views
Where can I get some Inflation Option example quotes (year-on-year and zero-coupon)
I am writing an academic paper on calibration of inflation vanilla options.
I need to generate examples for the paper. Is there anywhere I can get example data for the Inflation year-on-year options, ...
0
votes
0answers
41 views
Inflation of Bitcoins
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.coindesk.com/bitcoins-next-halving-rally-coming-soon-in-2019%3famp
suggests that the inflation rate of Bitcoins is around 4 percent. Considering the fact that ...
4
votes
1answer
127 views
Consumer Price Index (CPI) Inflation Impact on Price of Securities
I was wondering if there are any papers on CPI announcements' impact on the price of certain securities that are tied to inflation rates. I know there are derivatives for inflation rate, but I was ...
1
vote
1answer
154 views
Inflation Lag Bond Valuation
Question:
On 1st March 2006 a government issued a large tranche of an index-linked bond having
a term of 6 years. Coupons of 4% p.a. were payable half-yearly in arrears and the bond
was redeemed at ...
1
vote
1answer
60 views
How does inflation impact stock returns? Academic examples
For a literature survey in my university class, I have been asked the question "How does inflation impact stock returns?".
After reading some informal articles (in periodicals/ the general internet), ...
1
vote
2answers
139 views
What is the impact of inflationary expectation on stock price?
It is well known that, at least theoretically, stock prices are expected to rise in an inflationary environment. Now, my question is that does the same go for inflationary expectations; for example if ...
7
votes
2answers
523 views
Relationship between BBB credit spreads and rising interest rates
A stylized fact in markets seems to be that there is a negative correlation between interest rates and corporate spreads - as interest rates rise, spreads tend to tighten and vice versa.
I'm ...
0
votes
2answers
154 views
Data for daily real interest rates
In a high frequency model i would like to add daily real interest rates (preferably short-term) as a variable.
However, I cannot seem to find either daily CPI data, or daily real interest rates (...
1
vote
1answer
764 views
What is the formula for the forward price of a inflation linked bond assuming there are coupons in the interim period and the deal is collateralised?
t2=forward settlement date
P=Spot clean price
AI0=Spot accrued interest
r=repo rate
t1=coupon payment date
AIt2= accrued interest of the forward settlement date
t0= now
Proceeds Method:
F(t2)=(...
0
votes
0answers
64 views
Does MV of IRS depend on inflation?
Question: At time=0 company A enters an 3y interest rate swap with a bank, where A recieves floating and pays fixed. After 1y, at t=1, the inflation changes from 1% to 3% does this affect the MV of ...
1
vote
1answer
774 views
convexity adjustment in YOY inflation swap , compared with TRS, and considering autocorrelation
a YOY inflation swaplet payoff is S2/S1 - 1 , where Si is the CPI at time i
and a TRS (total return swaplet) asset leg payoff is also the same except the underlying is an asset.
So it seems to me ...
