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Questions tagged [interest-rates]

An interest rate is the rate at which interest is paid by a borrower (debtor) for the use of money that they borrow from a lender (creditor).

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How to calculate one-year forward one-year rate?

I'm just a little lost on how to calculate forward rates. I know this is an easy question, but, if we are given a one-year and two-year zero rate (let's say, for the sake of the argument, 2% and 3% ...
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What is the trickiest thing to get right in Rates Quant recently (2019)?

What are the biggest challenges for Rates Quants in 2019? Most quants have been through a lot over the past years-shifting their SABR models in JPY swaptions, fixing the FVA models for negative rates, ...
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78 views

CMS Pricing - Convexity Adjustment by Replication [on hold]

I'm trying to learn CMS pricing, but didn't get the logic of this method. Previously cited articles about this method is pretty complex. I'd be glad if you can provide me with simpler articles or ...
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70 views

Curve Building + Swap Pricing [duplicate]

Assume Swap means a USD Swap with standard conventions (semi-annual fixed payments and quarterly floating payments, etc).
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338 views

Why is it useless to model stochastic volatility when pricing Vanilla style derivatives?

With respect to the answer by user AFK in Ideas about Stochastic volatility models. I am specifically interested in interest rate options (IR Caps/Floors and Swaptions).
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77 views

Reference books for interest rates modeling?

I'm interviewing for a rates modeling quant role in a sell side bank. The role is centered around pricing and risk management of rates trading carried out by the front office. I've been told to ...
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74 views

Interview question on interest rate spread trade

Consider this interview question: Tell me how you'd construct a risk neutral cross country trade on the 2 year – 10 year interest rate spread in Germany and the U.S. What does "risk neutral" mean ...
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67 views

Shifted Log-Normal model

I am trying to understand how the shifted log-normal model works, in which we shift a log-normal model by a factor before the simulation so that interest rates don't turn negative during the ...
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1answer
84 views

Good References for Treasury Futures Spreads

I’m reading the excellent Treasury Bond Basis by Burghardt. I was wondering if there’s a similar quality book/paper about Yield curve spreads using treasury futures (i.e. NOL, NOB, FYT).
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42 views

Single vs Multi factor interest rate model

How do we explain the difference beween a single and multi factor interest rate model. Short term interest rate is one of the factor which is used in drift and vol calculation but what are other ...
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1answer
108 views

What is a central bank's shadow rate

I was reading a WSJ article about the European Central Bank shadow rate, which is -5.1% at the moment. The article says about the shadow rate that "Calculated with the rates on longer-dated credit ...
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What are the trade offs when choosing a long term bond future to trade?

It seems that when trading long term bonds *** and choosing between the two offerings on CME one is presented with a Scylla and Charybdis decision. 1. VOLATILITY CONSISTENCY: Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond ...
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4answers
297 views

Bond ETF vs Bond Future for longer term holding

How would a long term investor go about evaluating the prospect of investing in a bond ETF vs a long position in a future of equal duration? Let’s asume this investment is in a taxable account. Let’s ...
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How to calculate this FRA

I'm not sure if FRAs should be calculated with annual interest or with monthly interest. Example: Amount : 10.000 Interest rate contracted: 10% per annum. Period-term to 3 months within 3 months. ...
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55 views

Bachelier Pricing Formula for Interest Rate Binary Options

Similarly to the Black and Scholes formula, I am looking to replicate Bachelier's caplet formula with two digital options: (1) asset-or-nothing (forward rate in this case) and (2) cash-or-nothing. For ...
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2answers
4k views

How popular is the Linear Gauss Markov (LGM) model?

Some friends recommend to me Linear Gauss Markov model, saying it's interesting to have a look at it. Basically it's a framework different from HJM, with potential to extend, and the merit is that it'...
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1answer
272 views

Why Hull White 2 Factor model can't capture vol skew?

Is there a way to stay with the short rate model (like HW2F or G2++) but extend it to capture vol term structure (vol smile or skew). What happens if I calibrate HW2F to OTM swaptions? (I don't want ...
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1answer
449 views

Cap/Floor ATM Rate

This is a question on cap volatility market data. The quotes usually include volatilities for different strike (1%, 2%, ... 5%) and maturities (1Y,2Y,...20Y). One volatility for each combination of ...
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1answer
262 views

Hedging amortising interest rate swap with vanilla swaps

Is it possible to hedge an amortising interest rate swap (linearly decreasing notional) with a series of vanilla interest rate swaps? With the amortising swap originated today at par rate and the ...
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2answers
602 views

Fixing mean reversion parameter in the 1F HW model

I am trying to calibrate the 1 factor Hull White model to ATM swaptions. The strategy which I use is to minimise the sum of squared difference between model and market prices for the swaptions on the ...
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2answers
69 views

how to trade interest rates outside G10

G10 currencies markets have active FRA markets and apart from NOK, SEK and NZD one can also speculate on interest rates through exchange-traded futures. What's the best liquid way to speculate on ...
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3answers
524 views

Basic boostrapping question

Suppose I have three bonds: Coupon bonds are paid semi-annually. Rates are continuous compounding. I'm trying to bootstrap the zero rates for 0.5 years maturity using the 1 year zero coupon bond and ...
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1answer
1k views

What is the intuition behind the fact that Modified duration = Macaulay Duration / (1+r)?

I understand the derivation of both:take dP/dR and divide by P which will give you both 1) modified duration OR 2) macaulay duration / (1+r) (notice the weighted average time built into the function ...
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Basic Question on rate hikes priced in through Eurodollar futures (EDF)

(Say) The Mar19 Future price is 94.52(5.48%) and the Dec 19 Future price 94.27(5.74%), does this imply that markets expect a ~25bps hike specifically between the time period when the two contracts end ...
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1answer
118 views

How do markets price an interest rate rise?

It is common to see phrases like Markets priced in a 68 per cent chance of a rise in UK interest rates at the next meeting, up from 48 per cent before the June decision was announced This example ...
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Estimating Parameters - Vasicek

The Vasicek model for the short rate $r_t$ is given by the SDE $$ dr_t = \alpha(\beta - r_t)dt + \sigma dW_t, $$ where $W_t$ is a Brownian motion under the physical measure. I'd like to compute bond ...
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1answer
961 views

Vasicek model calibration

I am trying to calibrate Vasicek model, i.e. to determine the parameters $\kappa, \mu, \bar{\mu}$ and $\sigma$ where the process dynamics are given through $$ dr_t=\kappa\left( \mu - r_t\right) dt+\...
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1answer
152 views

Implied AUD Interest Rate from USDAUD FX Swap and USD Interest Rate

Can someone help me understand how to derive the implied interest rate or spot rate in BBG FXFA? I actually get why the Forward rate, F_Ask and F_Bid are derived using the formula in the picture. ...
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1answer
172 views

Modeling Interest-only Mortgages

Can we infer a range of future all-in costs for I/O ARMs with current index forward curves? Essentially, just taking a worksheet like this and adding some type of ramping capability after the fixed ...
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1answer
97 views

Derive a mathematical equation for Eurodollar future rate

If we suppose that r(t) follows a Vasicek model, which is: $$dr(t) = (\mu - \kappa r(t))dt + \sqrt\sigma dW(t)$$ How to derive an expression for Eurodollar future rate?
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1answer
59 views

Convexity adjustment--Assume sport and futures rates move together?

A cash flow argument I typically see for why a convexity adjustment is necessary is the following (taken loosely from Hull 9/e, p. 143): Say I am short an interest rate futures contract (e.g. ...
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1answer
1k views

Shape and geometry of the yield curve

Let the initial yield curve $T\mapsto y(0,T)$ be given for a term structure family of bonds $B(0,T)$ having different maturities. I am trying to figure out the geometric properties of the yield curve. ...
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1answer
216 views

How do swap dealers make money from trading cancellable swap?

A fixed-rate payer (e.g. a swap dealer) of a cancellable swap pays more interest than he receives because he has the right to terminate the swap after a certain time if rates fall. What are the ...
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62 views

Spreadlock derivatives

I would like to price a spreadlock forward swap and a spreadlock swaption but I don't find in the web any research article. Would you please provide me with some freely accessible papers on the web ? ...
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5answers
7k views

What is a regime switch?

I've come across the term regime switch in volatilities when reading about the modelling of interest rates but could not find a definition for a regime switch and what a regime is. Can somebody give ...
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3answers
4k views

Calculate OIS rate 3 months, 1 year

I don't know if there are any similar posts in this forum but I’m trying to describe below all things that I understand about OIS rates and Libor rates. Please correct me if I’m wrong somewhere. I am ...
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2answers
796 views

Implementation of one-factor Hull-White short interest rate model

I am looking for implementation in R, VBA, C++, Python (or in any other programming language) of one-factor Hull-White short rate interest model according to the following article: Hull J. and White ...
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5answers
902 views

Arbitrage possible with negative rate of interest?

Given a security having price $1$ at time $t=0$, and price $1+r$ in all world states at $t=T$, i.e., a risk-free bond with interest rate $r$. At $t=0$, short this and also buy an other risk-free bond. ...
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1answer
94 views

time step choice impact in Vasicek model simulations

I am trying to make some computations using Vasicek short rate model. Especially I a trying to compare exact expectation(obtained with the formula) and the expectation from Monte Carlo simulation. ...
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Zero Coupon Bond prices in One Factor Hull White model

I implemented the one factor Hull White model for educational purposes and I calibrated the model from a given (made up!) yield curve: The Zero Coupon Bond Prices from this yield curve are: Taking ...
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1answer
60 views

Ho & Lee yield curve fitting with zero coupon bond market prices

The Ho & Lee model for interest rates is given by the SDE: $$ \mathrm d r = \eta(t) \mathrm d t + c\,\mathrm d X $$ The calibration function for $\eta(t)$ is given by $$ \eta^*(t)=c^2(t-t^*)-\...
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a property of zero coupon bond in Brigo/Mercurio's “Interest Rate Models”

Let $P(t,T)$ be the the value of a contract at time $t$. This contract guarantees its holder the payment of $1$ at time $T$. consider $t<T<S$, when the interest rate is non-deterministic, do ...
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1answer
82 views

Construct a butterfly interest rate portfolio to eliminate PCA exposures

I have data from 2012 to 2016 for interest rates whose term range from 2 month to 30 years, a total of 10 Principal components can be calculated. Then I want to construct a portfolio, $$WFLY = w_1 *5Y ...
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Black and Normal Model for Caplet using Python

I am able to Price Caplet using Black 76 model in Python. However, I am unable to price the same with Normal Model. Can anyone suggest what is missing ? I am valuing caplet that caps interest rate on ...
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2answers
496 views

Interest Rate Risk - The Greeks

IR Delta and Gamma. Can someone please explain if my understanding is accurate as relates to a 2yr interest rate swap? You are considered to be long Delta in an interest rate swap if you are ...
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Derivation of CIR interest rate model [duplicate]

I am trying to understand the derivation of the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross interest rate model. This has a stochastic differential equation of the form $$dr=(\eta-\gamma r)dt + \sqrt{\alpha r} \space dX$$ ...
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3answers
334 views

Why 10-year versus 2-year spread?

I occasionally see the 10y-2y spread referenced as a recession predictor. See, e.g., https://seekingalpha.com/article/4201787-current-slope-yield-curve-tell-us Why 10y minus 2y? Specifically, why use ...
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116 views

Why are interest rate swaps the most popular interest rate derivatives [closed]

Interest rate swaps are the most popular interest rate derivatives. Is there a reason why they are more popular than other interest rate derivatives (e.g. forwards, futures)? Is it because they were ...
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“Economic” Variables in Short Rate Models

Hull (9 ed.) states on p 707, "Equilibrium models usually start with assumptions about economic variables and derive a process for the short rate..." He then states the usual short rate models ...
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“Standard” Model for Effective Fed Funds Rate

Is there a "standard" model used to model the Effective Fed Funds Rate? I know that BGM is often used for LIBOR but haven't found a similar application to the Effective Fed Funds Rate. Do ...