Questions tagged [machine-learning]

Algorithms that allow computers to evolve behaviors based on empirical data. Approaches include genetic programming, artificial neural networks, decision trees, support vector machines, and cluster analysis.

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What Is A Good Success Rate Using Machine Learning For A Beginner?

I know this question will be quickly destroyed and my account summarily banned, but I just have to ask: For a trader using machine-learning algorithms (SVMs, ANNs, GAs, Decision Trees) for ...
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2answers
143 views

When to stop training?

I have built a deep reinforcement learning based portfolio optimisation agent. At a high level it is using macro economic data, valuations of the assets and a few technical indicators as the features. ...
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1answer
769 views

CAPM and factor modeling: Machine learning

Excuse my ignorance with this I am still trying to wrap my head around the interpretation of the Fama French 1992 factor paper. I come from a computer science background but I am interested in ...
2
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1answer
2k views

Feature for Maching Learning(SVM) in High Frequecy Order Book?

I am trying to implement machine learning to predict the movement of bid and ask price but is unable to find the proper feature for training set. I am using Support Vector Machine for binary ...
2
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1answer
232 views

How to group mutual funds by volatility?

I want to group Mutual Funds by their volatility. Ideally, I would like to end up with the mutual funds beings attached to different groups: High volatility Medium volatility Low Volatility My ...
2
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1answer
111 views

Building a semi-discretionary system

I've been investing for the last 15 years in a weird Buffett/Soros way. For the last few years I've been toying with the idea of modeling myself. I want to build a 'stock screener' that will be able ...
2
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1answer
53 views

Labeling and excluding specific market conditions

I'm going through "Advances in Financial ML" book and got stuck with something which is not covered there (correct me if I'm wrong). Let's assume I labeled data to 0, 1, 2 according to triple barrier ...
2
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1answer
57 views

Flexible horizon in Triple Barrier Method

I'm going through "Advances in Financial ML" book and I really like the ideas behind Triple Barrier Method and using a flexible horizontal threshold based on volatility. What bothers me is that an ...
2
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1answer
81 views

Choosing best expressions from all possible combinations on variables, unary operators and binary operators along with hyper parameters

I have a few financial variables of a stock universe like OHLC prices, volume, and other fundamentals with varying time-frequency. Using this set I'm creating an expression that gives the weights to ...
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1answer
136 views

Calculating PD of commercial bank loan

I have two main options to calculate PD of a loan in a commercial bank; with and without machine learning. On one hand, there are traditional methods such as Merton or KVM. On the other hand, I could ...
2
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1answer
191 views

How can I 'quantize' a time-series in 'groups' exhibiting similar patterns? [closed]

In Signal processing, there is a topic of 'Quantization' (the process of mapping input values from a large set to output values in a (countable) smaller set ('states') ). I would like to construct a ...
2
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1answer
781 views

Analog - Pattern Recognition model using KNN

I'm building a pattern recognition model for my master thesis. The idea is to build a framework with some Macro variables (long/short term rates; rates differential; equity; fx; vix) in order to find ...
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2answers
650 views

Machine Learning on matlab 2010

I am trying to develop a trading model. It uses certain technical and fundamental features and the model learns from the past. I have a 3-class output - bullish, neutral and bearish. On trying neural ...
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0answers
44 views

Conceptual help - Machine Learning on finance data set [closed]

I am working on Anomaly detection model problem for a finance data set - set of gift card activation transactions. My team member suggested an idea that " First train the model with normal instances ...
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0answers
241 views

Information Driven Bars (Advances in Financial Machine Learning)

My team and I are busy coding up a python implementation of the information driven bars (imbalance and run bars) mentioned in Chapter 2 of the text book Advances in Financial Machine Learning. There ...
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0answers
318 views

Getting over bid-ask bounce

One property of High-Frequency data is it's subject to bid-ask bounce. Description : Unlike traditional data based on just closing prices, tick data carry additional supply-and-demand information in ...
2
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0answers
114 views

What is a good algorithm to predict volatility in metals commodity markets? [closed]

I'm trying to create a script to predict major swings in the price of Aluminium. I am trying to implement a dynamic time warping algorithm for the same. Was wondering if this really is the best ...
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0answers
492 views

stochastic modeling and machine learning [closed]

For a little bit of background, I've been studying stochastic calc and a few of it's applications (currently I'm still at the early stages of learning applications) and have been curious as to whether ...
2
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0answers
323 views

Differential Sortino Ratio

I'm attempting to optimize a reinforcement learning system to maximize risk adjusted returns. I have currently defined the reward as the differential Sharpe ratio at each step: the influence of the ...
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0answers
266 views

Good books on predictive modeling (for alpha signal research)

In terms of books on predictive models, I find ESL (elements of statistical learning) trying to cover too much and serves more like a reference, instead of explaining and developing the theories for ...
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0answers
168 views

What are examples of boosting, bagging, stacking or subspace method in quantitative finance?

The above ensemble methods appear useful in several machine learning competitions, like Netflix prize or KDD. They work by diversifying between several model variants. Are they also useful in ...
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3answers
668 views

Research methodology of systematic strategies

Can someone please share your research methodology of systematic trading strategies? I feel like I am always using the a same data driven procedures over different underlyings and would like to get ...
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1answer
168 views

Should there be a relation between stocks when used as input data for integrating Technical Analysis with Machine Learning?

I'm integrating Technical Analysis with Deep Learning for the first phase of my research. I wanted to know how should I pick (or group) stocks as input data and whether there should be relation ...
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2answers
112 views

Measuring correlation between random variables when they are not normally distributed?

I want to perform some analysis on portfolio that consists of hedge funds (thus fund of hedge funds) In particular, I want to know the relationship between the funds during the downmarket. The ...
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2answers
491 views

Choosing attributes for SVM classification?

Let's assume I am classifying every trading day as a 1 or a 0. Exactly what I am classifying doesn't matter, but for the sake of this question let's say I am predicting direction of price change. So, ...
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1answer
81 views

Modeling mortgage loan defaults

I have a machine learning model trained with a list of mortgage features that include macro variables where the field to predict (the label) is "Mortgage Defaulted" = 1 or 0 (Yes or No). Now, I need ...
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2answers
405 views

Use machine learning to find exercise boundary of American put option

I am working on using machine learning to obtain American Put's early exercise boundary. To train the model, I need an output label (known boundaries values). Is there a fast way to obtain the ...
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2answers
80 views

Lower MSE results in less profit when using Machine Learning

When using Machine Learning for predicting stocks, can a lower Mean Squared Error result in less profit after Backtesting or is there a mistake in the experiment?
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1answer
68 views

How can I reproduce the experimental verification of the “False Strategy” theorem plot?

I recently came across the following blog post talking about the importance of back-testing overfitting, and a plot claiming to be an experimental verification of the False Strategy theorem. The ...
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2answers
1k views

Using Technical Indicators for forecasting Financial time series using Machine learning models

Hi I am trying to use financial technical Indicators for forecasting, using machine learning models. The usual approach in time series cross validation is to use a moving window or growing window. ...
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2answers
864 views

Howto Calculate An Error's Partial Derivative in ANN

This is a follow-on question from this post I made, "Multilayer Perceptron (Neural Network) for Time Series Prediction", a few months back. I'm constructing a feed-forward artificial neural network, ...
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1answer
108 views

How can stationary time series data be used as input in an ML model?

I am halfway through "Advances in Financial Machine Learning" by Marcos Lopez de Prado. I understand that a time series like stock prices can be transformed to make it sufficiently stationary. ...
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1answer
56 views

Which machine learning model rely on the normality assumption?

In the machine learning project, when the target variable is skewed, we need to use box-cox transformation to turn that into a normal distribution. But why do we need to do that? I mean, besides the ...
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1answer
81 views

Combine fundamental and market data into one ML model

What are the best tested ways to preprocess data with very different frequencies such as fundamental and market data into same ML model for quant trading?
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2answers
177 views

Seeking papers that deal with stock market analysis

I am sure there are a lot of papers that are related to stock market analysis.. but I haven't been able to find ones that fit my needs most. I want to read papers, replicate their analysis, and use ...
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2answers
105 views

How to assign n day target variables in machine learning

I am trying to forecast future price using supervised machine learning. My logic is to take open and close price from t, t-1, t-2 and t-3 period to predict future close price in the period t+1,t+3 ...
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1answer
257 views

Machine learning to build top 3 price scenarios over n days

I have a time series of closing prices for a given stock. I would like to formulate possible future scenarios for the price. My intention is not to use these "likely" scenarios to take any position. ...
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2answers
427 views

Feature Selection Effect on Deep Multi-Layer-Perceptron for Financial Applications

I am trying to build a machine learning system for financial price prediction. I am using a 3 layer MLP (a deep network) with 3 outputs (buy,hold,sell). I am using different features such as price ...
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0answers
31 views

machine-learning method to predict PCA weights

I have been using certain linear-regression to extract the PCA (top 3) weights relating to a certain data-set. I was wondering, instead of using linear-regression to generate the weights, I can use ...
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0answers
41 views

Dollar bars in Advances in Financial Machine Learning book

Does anyone have use the dollar bars for building a strategy? I would like to know what ways you guys might be interested to set the dollar bars' parameter ( the dollar value ). I have thought of one ...
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0answers
88 views

Machine Learnign for Factor Model python [closed]

I have read several articles about Factor Model using Deep Learning or machine learning, but none of them post the code. Where can I find the python code for anything similar?
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0answers
28 views

Given historical performance of a financial index, how to categorise different historical periods depending on the market regime at the time?

We are trying to work on a Machine Learning application to attempt to predict market regime changes (bull, bear, stale?). Generally a ML algorithm needs well defined training data for establishing its ...
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0answers
71 views

Uniqueness of data metric [closed]

Is there a metric that calculates "uniqueness of data"? For example if i have two sets of 200 observations, DataSet 1 has 70 unique values but 4 values take up the next 130 observations. DataSet 2 ...
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0answers
31 views

Machine Learning Munging - order of transforms? + adding in econometric tests?

I have a list of possible transforms, and I've read some confusing/contradictory stuff about the preferred order in which these operations are performed. Maybe 1) the order is sometimes amorphous, ...
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2answers
1k views

What’s the derivative of the sharpe ratio for one asset? Trying to optimize on it for a model

It seems most Sharpe ratio derivations seem to be for portfolios but I am just tracking a single asset? $SR = (r_p - r_f) / \sigma_p$ but what would I derive with respect to for an optimization/ ...
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1answer
127 views

Market, Limit and Cancellation orders

From the paper https://web.stanford.edu/class/msande448/2017/Final/Reports/gr4.pdf page 8, I need at least the limit and market order. I can easily find the full depth from dxfeed or algoseek, but I ...
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3answers
517 views

Appropriate way to normalize Bollinger Bands?

I am playing around with using neural nets to make predictions on market trends. I am currently feeding in a portfolio of historical data of many stocks, and am now implementing several technical ...
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1answer
392 views

ML classification algorithms give random profit [closed]

I use backtrader python framework to backtest ML classification algorithms to make decision ...
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2answers
94 views

Imputation of missing returns

I'm trying to calculate a historical VaR for a portfolio of futures, however there are certain days for which some assets are missing prices. Since the portfolio consists of many spread positions, the ...
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2answers
379 views

Can someone please share examples of machine learning in quantitative finance? [closed]

There has been a lot said about the application of AI, ML and Neural Networks in trading for predictive modelling. I was unable to find any relevant examples that prove a credible output based on ...