Questions tagged [macro-economics]

The tag has no usage guidance.

Filter by
Sorted by
Tagged with
1
vote
0answers
53 views

Measuring corporate size relative to world GDP

I'm working o a model where corporate revenue / world GDP is a dependent variable of some stuff (based on the model proposed in this paper: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?pid=S1807-76922009000200002&...
3
votes
3answers
190 views

Getting sets of random correlated variables

For the training of a machine learning model I need to add additional features (macro variables), and these features are correlated. I need to run the model N times, and for each time I have to add ...
0
votes
0answers
25 views

why we seldom see application of copula-garch model in macroeconomic

I find a lot of reference about copula-garch in finance market,but it seems that articles about copula-garch model in macroeconomic are rare.Is there any instrinc problem when it comes to ...
0
votes
1answer
49 views

Estimating monthly GDP growth based on quarterly data

Apologies for this newbie question. Given the following quarterly GDP growth: ...
3
votes
1answer
98 views

Measurable effects of quantitative easing on corporate financing cost

I have read about Quantitative Easing (QE) and its attempt to bring back inflation. In this, central banks create money, then give it to other banks that buy government bonds, corporate bonds, and ...
0
votes
0answers
26 views

city level data in bloomberg

Does bloomberg terminal provide economic information on the city level such as GDP, etc for countries other than us? If yes, just can I use the GDP function or there are other available functions? ...
5
votes
1answer
596 views

What is the use of the Euler equation in the Ramsey growth model?

I apologise for being brief, but I don't understand how is Euler equation used in the Ramsey growth model. I am reading a textbook "Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling" and there is mentioned about ...
1
vote
1answer
91 views

Understand the white noise condition in Vector Autoregression

In the following vector autoregression model with lag polynomial representation: $$\Phi (L) y_t= \epsilon_t$$ where $Y$ is the vector of endogenous variables, $\Phi$ is the parameters matrix, $\...
1
vote
1answer
27 views

Demand Function

I have seen the following demand function $q=a-p+c\bar{p}$ where $p$ is the price, $\bar{p}$ is the so called "average price". The values $a=1-c$ are competition parameters. I have basically two ...
2
votes
1answer
99 views

Asset class dynamics differences

If we compare daily return dynamics of the main asset class time series (e.g. Stock indexes, bonds, precious commodities, etc) do we observe quantifiable differences? Are there some reference paper on ...
7
votes
4answers
2k views

What are the canonical global-macro investing books?

What is a good reading list for Global Macro investing? What does Bridgewater, Bervan Howard, Soros, AQR etc. use to teach their staff about macroeconomic investing? Let us assume a top-class ...
1
vote
0answers
119 views

Fixed Income Trading Intuition

Is there any literature discussing the economics of trading fixed income securities? I was asked in an interview the other day how I would trade/construct a bond portfolio if a) the fed raised rates ...
5
votes
1answer
2k views

what's the difference between Peak-Load pricing and price discrimination?

i just don't get it. Peak-load pricing wiki page gives example: in public goods such as public urban transportation, where day demand (peak period) is usually much higher than night demand (off-...
0
votes
1answer
35 views

basic econometric model on country spread methodology

I am doing some research on Germany, France and Spain on their spread. I would like to try to 'forecast' or 'explain' the the spread on sovreign debt using OLS regression on unemployment and debt ...
0
votes
2answers
85 views

What kind of indicators would you look in the market preceding a recession/crisis?

What kind of indicators may have predicted the upcoming financial crisis in the 2000 or 2008?
2
votes
2answers
165 views

Trading with Inflation, Unemployment, Trade Deficit Information

I am trying to create a model for inflation for trading purposes. In his book The Market: Practice and Policy S. Nickell presents a model that relates unemployment, inflation and trade deficit. His ...
1
vote
0answers
30 views

Are COFER unallocated resource changes meaningful?

I've been looking at the currency reserves (COFER) data on the IMF site: http://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4&ss=1408202647052 What caught my eye was the 5% drop in ...
-3
votes
1answer
47 views

Liquidity effect in case MS decrease

What is the result if the liquidity effect is grater than other effects in case of decreased money supply? I got this question on the exam, In case of an increase in the money supply by the central ...
1
vote
1answer
49 views

A citizen's life as an investment project (from the State's PoV)

An average citizen's life can be seen as an investment project: the State starts investing into prenatal care, the child's education etc., a young man starts making money and paying taxes (breaks even ...
1
vote
2answers
69 views

Can the money market break in a crisis situation?

I am researching the question, what happens during a crisis situation to the money market. Can it break? In 2007-08 there is evidence that liquity hoarding from banks became a rather common problem. ...
1
vote
1answer
52 views

Stressing the going up of LIBOR - Which balance sheet variables to stress?

Analysts expect the LIBOR to rise in the next two years. Hence, all companies that have foreign currency loans will face problems. I am preparing a study on this topic, but data is an extreme issue. ...
1
vote
0answers
25 views

Sample data of quarterly (annualized) real GDP growth

I am looking for a database that provides me the quarterly (annualized) real GDP growth (quarter t and t-1) of US, Germany and England. For the US data i went here: https://www.philadelphiafed.org/...
0
votes
1answer
462 views

Looking for a definition of financial entropy

In Science, Entropy is generally considered to be the irreversibility of stuff. Google defines entropy as: lack of order or predictability; gradual decline into disorder The 'gradual decline in ...
1
vote
1answer
61 views

What is the gross accounting relation of Cobb-Douglas function?

We have Cobb-Douglas function like this $Y=AK^\alpha L^{1-\alpha}$, in one of the book, it deduce like this: How can we get this formula? $$\frac{\Delta Y}Y = \frac{\Delta A}A+\alpha\frac{\Delta K}K+(...
4
votes
3answers
545 views

What are the most effective market variables to measure liquidity/illiquidity in the market?

I'm trying to find/create a variable that measures liquidity in financial markets in order to assess, for instance whether credit conditions tightened? Does anyone know any relevant literature ...
2
votes
1answer
158 views

How does trade deficit affect the economy of a country

How does trade deficit for a prolonged period(say 10-15 years) affect a country's economy? I have read that it should affect it adversely, but the US trade deficit has been negative since the mid 1960'...
3
votes
5answers
215 views

economic facts that causes the financial time series to be heavy tailed

When reading a tutorail on extreme value theory, I once meet the following claim ...
2
votes
1answer
178 views

Economic indicators leading the yield curve

There is a lot of research on how the government yield curve can be used to predict the economy. The government yield curve is often seen as a leading indicator. But for which variables is the curve a ...
0
votes
1answer
94 views

Liquidity and Prices

Do fewer transaction costs and higher liquidity relate to lower market prices? Are there any good resources that deal with these topics in more detail?
4
votes
1answer
217 views

Fixed Income free research available online

As from the title, I would like to know where it is possible to find free research focused on fixed income markets' themes and topics, such as interest rates, credit risk related fundamentals, new ...
6
votes
1answer
156 views

Relating Quantitative Easing to the rally in the SPX

The Fed's balance sheet has been expanding over the last few month due to QE3. When the Fed goes out to buy treasuries or MBS, it's taking those securities out of the market and exchanging them with ...
2
votes
1answer
174 views

How to reconstruct a discontinued economic time series such as the Fed's CP rate?

The old 3-Month Commercial Paper Rate (CP3M) on FRED was discontinued in 1997. I would like to reconstruct this series in a reasonable fashion, so I can use it to analyze more recent events. I was ...
9
votes
2answers
1k views

How do I replicate John Hussman's recession forecasting methodology?

John Hussman has a recession forecasting methodology he often posts about on his blog, and I am trying to replicate it using publicly available data. I would like to assess his accuracy in predicting ...
5
votes
1answer
375 views

Will price levels fall even though money supply increases?

Given this equation, according to the article at this location , which provides the following equation as an argument, the author claims that he predicts "deflation" in the last paragraph of the ...