Questions tagged [market-regimes]

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24
votes
4answers
4k views

How do I adjust a correlation matrix whose elements are generated from different market regimes?

Say I want to calculate a correlation matrix for 50 stocks using 3-year historical daily data. And there are some stocks that were recently listed for one year. This is not technically challenging ...
21
votes
2answers
7k views

Regime-Switching Model for detecting market shifts

I'm always wondering whether anyone has utilized regime-switching models successfully in forecasting or trading. Academia has long discussed this topic in-depth, such as using Regime Switching ...
18
votes
5answers
14k views

What is a regime switch?

I've come across the term regime switch in volatilities when reading about the modelling of interest rates but could not find a definition for a regime switch and what a regime is. Can somebody give ...
18
votes
3answers
3k views

How to detect regime change when estimating asset correlation from historical time series?

Suppose I have two asset time series, $X_t$ and $Y_t$, and I'm estimating their correlation from historical data. I'd like to apply some systematic criterion to estimate what time window I should use ...
18
votes
2answers
3k views

How to build a regime-switching model which knows its own limits?

In recent months I've come to the conclusion that there are not only certain regimes in the markets (like bear or bull) but phases where all models fail because we are in uncharted territory. The ...
9
votes
1answer
1k views

Transition Between Volatility Regimes

Emanuel Derman wrote a great paper in 1999 about volatility regimes and the adjustments the market makes during these periods (sticky strike, sticky implied tree, sticky delta, etc). Has any ...
5
votes
1answer
316 views

Comprehensive List of Regime Switching/Change-Point Detection Models

I am looking for a comprehensive list of regime switching/change point models/techniques which can be used to model different regimes / change points in financial time series. What I found so far are: ...
2
votes
0answers
181 views

PortfolioAnalytics and regime switching issue

I've been playing around with the R package PortfolioAnalytics and I have spent more time than I'm willing to admit to try and resolve this issue: When I follow the regime switching example with the ...
2
votes
0answers
75 views

modelling known regime shifts

I wish to model a price time series with a known regime shift: electricity price before during and after the introduction of a carbon price. The time series looks like this: you can see the jump in ...
2
votes
0answers
69 views

Risk-Neutral Pricing with Regime Switching

As the title suggests, I am currently trying to implement a dual regime-switching options pricing model. In its simplest form, I am fitting a risk-neutral GARCH(1,1) to a crash and normal regime. ...
1
vote
1answer
77 views

Are Indices Regulated

Suppose that a bank (or any regulated body) wants to sell and ETF, replicating some index. Does that replicator have to adhere to the Basel accords? Similarly, if a bank (or any regulated body) ...
1
vote
1answer
97 views

How to simulate asset prices/returns that display market regimes?

Are there any techniques that can make a multivariate random number generating process for stock prices/returns, like geometric Brownian motion via Cholesky, also include the simulation of a finite ...
1
vote
0answers
51 views

Put-call parity under a regime-switching model

I need some help. I'm given $J$ different regimes, each one characterized by its own parameters $(r_i, \delta_i,\sigma_i,...)$ with $i\in \mathcal{J}= \{1,2,...,J\}$ ($r$ = risk-free interest rate, $...
1
vote
0answers
35 views

Stochastic process with determinstic frequency of regime changes

Suppose that I have an OU process. For instance, assume that I want to model the interest rates. Suppose that regime change is known ex ante, and is deterministic in terms of frequency (For instance, ...
1
vote
0answers
32 views

Given historical performance of a financial index, how to categorise different historical periods depending on the market regime at the time?

We are trying to work on a Machine Learning application to attempt to predict market regime changes (bull, bear, stale?). Generally a ML algorithm needs well defined training data for establishing its ...
1
vote
1answer
103 views

Value at Risk for normal r.v. with shock (regimes)

I am struggling to understand how was this simple Value-at-Risk calculated. It's Example 1 in Daníelsson, Jón, et al. "Fat tails, VaR and subadditivity." Journal of econometrics 172.2 (2013): 283-291 (...
0
votes
2answers
109 views

Regime switching model getting data

I am trying to find a dataset (oil prices, S&P index, DAX returns etc.) in order to visualize the high volatility and low volatility periods in a plot. So far, I have not found a dataset that has ...
0
votes
1answer
29 views

Combining discontinuous opposing returns into a single continuous function

See the function here. It's my intent to measure the expected log return of the optimal trade with regards to long/short positions in a trading range. The trading range has an equilibrium where the ...
0
votes
0answers
69 views

Trying to recreate results from a research paper on HMM and Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test for forecasting regime switching on SP500

I am trying to recreate this research: Regime-Switching Factor Investing with Hidden Markov Models, by Matthew Wang, Yi-Hong Lin and Ilya Mikhelson https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/13/12/311/htm My ...
0
votes
0answers
61 views

Is variance of residuals of Markov switching GARCH model regime specific?

I'm using MSGARCH package in R. By return_data/Volatility(fit.model), I get the residuals. When I calculate the standard deviation of the residuals, it turns out that it's close to 1 for all residuals....