Questions tagged [markov]

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13 votes
1 answer
355 views

Probability density function of simple equation, compound Poisson noise

I would like to find the probability density function (at stationarity) of the random variable $X_t$, where: \begin{equation*} dX_t = -aX_t dt + d N_t, \end{equation*} $a$ is a constant and $N_t$ is a ...
6 votes
1 answer
1k views

Regime Switching for Dynamic Correlations

I would like to implement a Regime Switching for Dynamic Correlations in an out-of-sample analysis using MATLAB. After looking at the literature on the subject, they all refer to an article by Denis ...
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4 votes
3 answers
6k views

Understanding the concept of Martingale pricing

I am a bit confused about how to formulate a problem where I have to price an option on a stock. Many papers say that stock prices are best modeled using a geometric Brownian motion (GBM), and I ...
  • 403
4 votes
1 answer
303 views

backward Kolmogorov equations - Markov properties

I'm a physicist who's research has lead him into the theory of stochastic differential equations. If this question is not appropriate for this forum, please feel free to delete it. So I've been ...
4 votes
1 answer
677 views

Solving a backwards heat equation using stochastic calculus

Given the PDE $$\frac{\partial F}{\partial t} + \frac{1}{2}\sigma^2 \frac{\partial^2 F}{\partial x^2} = 0$$ with condition $F(T,x) = x^2$, one can use the Feynman-Kac formula to arrive at $$F(t,x) =...
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3 votes
1 answer
233 views

markov property for stochastic differential equation

Suppose the stochastic equation: \begin{equation*} d X(u)=\beta(u,X(u))d u+\gamma(u,X(u))d W(u). \end{equation*} Suppose $X(T)$ is the solution of above stochastic differential equation with initial ...
  • 1,223
3 votes
3 answers
956 views

Why Markov Functional Models (Hunt 2000) are not yet so popular?

I refer to MFM introduced by Hunt [2000]. These models can be seen a subset of interest rate market models. MFM allow us to describe the term structure elements using a set a functions of a low-...
3 votes
1 answer
2k views

Scaling of a transition matrix

I am working on a ratings transition matrix and I wondered how people scale it down to shorter time periods (although one should more or less stick to the estimation period i know). It is clear that ...
  • 2,894
3 votes
0 answers
667 views

Hidden Markov Models for Higher frequency trading

I'm curious if anyone can validate my train of thought here with the utility of Hidden Markov models for modeling things happening on higher frequency trading activity versus lower frequency, and in ...
  • 1,152
3 votes
0 answers
135 views

Prove the Markov property for the stochastic process $Y^x_t$

Prove the Markov property for the stochastic process $Y^x_t=xe^{at+bW_t}$ Given a function $u(t,x)=\mathbb{E}[f(Y^*_t)]$ with $Y^*_0=x$. For $s<t$ we have $\mathbb{E}[f(Y^*_t)]=u(t-s,Y^*_s)$ by ...
  • 1,012
3 votes
0 answers
409 views

Hull White 2 factors and non Markov interest rates

I am studying the calibration of the 2 factors Hull White model on Brigo and Mercurio's book. They point out that, using cap volatilities, the value of $\rho$ is almost minus one and this means that ...
  • 131
2 votes
1 answer
74 views

Non-recombining lattice in non-markovian models

Brigo&Mercurio Interest Rate Models - Theory and Practice, 2nd edition, when treating not markovian HJM models, says the following "the approximating lattice will not be recombining and the ...
2 votes
1 answer
270 views

Examples of non-increasing variance of a time homogeneous Markovian process

This is an edit to the previous question, on stationary process, which was answered by Richard below. Let $x_t$ be a zero mean, time homogeneous Markovian process over time $t$ starting from $x_0=0$. ...
  • 2,481
2 votes
1 answer
402 views

How can I 'quantize' a time-series in 'groups' exhibiting similar patterns? [closed]

In Signal processing, there is a topic of 'Quantization' (the process of mapping input values from a large set to output values in a (countable) smaller set ('states') ). I would like to construct a ...
1 vote
1 answer
117 views

Pricing a piece of asset whose dividend stream following a Markovian matrix

I'm trying to calculate the result of an simple example on page 326-327, in Harrison and Kreps(1978). It's pricing a piece of asset whose dividend stream is a simple Markovian process. Here's my ...
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1 vote
1 answer
127 views

Use of markov process in option pricing

In several books on asset pricing and more particularly when it concerns option pricing, I see the use of Markov process, they argue the computation is made easier with such process. Is this ...
  • 45
1 vote
1 answer
126 views

When predicting Forex price using HMM what, typically, are the states and what are the observations?

I understand their abstract definition but having trouble applying the HMM method to Forex prices. What should the observations be? Then what should the states be (like "hot", "cold", etc.)?
1 vote
1 answer
417 views

Prove that $E[g(X_T)|\mathscr F_t] = E[g(X_T)|X_t]$

Let $T > 0$. Let $(\Omega, \mathscr F, \{\mathscr F_t\}_{t \in [0,T]}, \mathbb P)$ be a filtered probability space where $\mathscr F_t = \sigma(W_u, u \in [0,t])$ where $W_t$ is standard Brownian ...
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1 vote
1 answer
116 views

Observed rating migration matrix to derive the generator matrix

I am doing some reading on the derivation of credit rating migration/transition matrices and probability of default term structures. I understand that a homogeneous Markov chain can be either discrete-...
  • 145
1 vote
2 answers
752 views

Why does the Weak Form of Market Efficiency and Markov Property hold?

This question is to do with a paragraph in Hull (Options and other Derivatives) He explains that Stock Prices usually follow a Markov Property, where the current price of the stock contains all the ...
1 vote
0 answers
239 views

Markovianity of the short rate process in the HJM framework

In Andersen and Piterbarg (2010), the authors study the short rate process under a HJM framework and derive the following expression (Section 4.4.3): $$ r(t)=f(t,t)=f(0,t)+\int_0^t\sigma_f(u,t)^\...
1 vote
0 answers
221 views

Three-state Markov Chain: Credit rating question

Consider a credit-rating system, with two solvency states (A & B) and a default state (D), and assuming recovery rate and interest rate are 0%. The one year credit spread for an A-rated company ...
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1 vote
0 answers
644 views

Trouble verifying roll rate model

I found this paper on roll rate analysis via a google search. I would post a link, but every page is stamped with "CONFIDENTIAL" at the bottom (humorous since it is easily found). In a nut-shell, ...
0 votes
1 answer
208 views

Markov switching regime for stock returns

I want to see if day of the week (or month) has some effect on stock returns. I want to use Markov switching model to identify different regimes in time series. If $Y_1,Y_2,...Y_t$ are stock returns,...
0 votes
1 answer
60 views

Transition Matrix Operation in Stoikov's Micro Price Paper

Sasha Stoikov's paper provides an interesting finite state approach to modeling the mid. It makes good sense to me except one property. On page 7 of the linked paper, $$G^1(x)=\left(\sum_s\mathbf{Q}^{...
0 votes
0 answers
131 views

Markovian short rate in HJM framework

In Bjork it is proven in proposition 20.5 that a forward rate dynamics: \begin{equation} f(t,T) = f(0,T) + \int_0^t\alpha(s,T)ds + \int_0^t\sigma(s,T)dW(s) \end{equation} imply a dynamics for the ...
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0 votes
0 answers
138 views

Deriving the risk-neutral pricing formula for the 2-state credit risk model

I am reading Interest rate models by Cairns—specifically the chapter on credit risk. Cairns introduces first the simple 2-state continuous time Markov model for credit risk—with the two states being "...
0 votes
0 answers
146 views

Developing Markov Transition Matrix

I’m working with historical credit performance data and would like to build a transition matrix to predict defaults and delinquencies. I can model the transition between states (ie current - ...