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Questions tagged [mean-reversion]

A mean reverting process is a process that, over time, tends to drift toward its long-term mean.

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cointegration strategy

If it can be proved that two time series $$S_t^1=\alpha + \beta S_t^2 + \xi_t$$ representing stocks are correlated, with $\beta=-2$ and then are proved to be cointegrated, how a portfolio should be ...
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How to optimize an arbitrage portfolio when taking into account different speeds of mean reversion?

In portfolio optimization, it is insufficient to just note the size of price deviation - that only tells the amount of profit if held to maturity. One also needs to take into account reversion speed - ...
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Are there alternatives to the Box-Tiao decomposition in identifying mean reverting portfolios?

As documented in this paper, Box-Tiao decomposition (a way to decompose multiple time series into components with different speeds of mean reversion) can be used to identify mean reverting portfolios. ...
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Mean Reverting Spread

I have constructed a mean reverting spread using two indexes. I know they have to be mean reverting, but when plotted side by side they are mean reverting for a little bit and then deviate and head ...
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769 views

Two prices pass the cointegration test but there is a trend. How to check stationarity?

Below is a spread built with two ETFs that pass the cointegration test i.e. Adjusted Dickey Fuller, adfTest(type="nc") in R's fUnitRoots with a p-value < 0.01. The red line is the trendline. What ...
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349 views

What causes poor returns in pair trading of very cointegrated securities?

I've been running some backtests of a pair trading strategy on 1 year worth of 5 min bars of two securities and I've noticed pretty poor returns, especially once transaction costs are taken into ...
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2answers
809 views

Calibration of non-mean-reverting OU process

I'm looking for some reference on how to calibrate a non-mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to historical data using MLE or OLS. The model has the following SDE: $d\lambda(t)=a\lambda(t)dt+\...
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109 views

Co integration of diverging time series

I have 2 time-series datasets. I am trying to find co integration between them. Now the thing is they are negatively correlated. So if I want to look at the distance between them, would I be right in ...
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1answer
79 views

Pairs Trading situation Spread changes

I'm setting up and following a pair trading operation by the method of summing the distances squared (SSD). After determining the best pairs, I have to track the spread between the normalized prices. ...
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1answer
102 views

Expanding window vs Rolling window z-score

I wish to find the z-score of a value measure( e/g P/E ratio) to compare them across asset classes, currently i am using an expanding window z-score to calculate the long-term mean and standard ...
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2answers
533 views

Cointegration vs combination of returns

Hi Quantitative Finance, I understand that there are a wealth of pairs trading models out there. Recently, it got me thinking as to why we go through the trouble to find cointegrated pairs while we ...
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1answer
71 views

Does it make sense to interpret autocorrelation and box test on 5 data points?

I am trying to see if after I trade a stock the price movements at 2, 5, 7, 10, 30 and 60 seconds after exhibit any autocorrelation. Below I have the returns from my trade price to the trade 2,5,7,10 ...
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William K. Bertram's sharpe formula checking

I have some issues to verify by simulation the formulas in the paper of William K. Bertram "Analytic solutions for optimal statistical arbitrage trading". first, the reversion parameter alpha=180 in ...
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Stochastic process with determinstic frequency of regime changes

Suppose that I have an OU process. For instance, assume that I want to model the interest rates. Suppose that regime change is known ex ante, and is deterministic in terms of frequency (For instance, ...
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74 views

Cointegration between daily time series and intraday time series

I am working with time series data of daily prices, and intraday prices. For simplicity sake I will refer to the daily time series as 'A' and 'B', and the intraday time series of the same instruments ...
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What does it mean that $\Phi$ is a mean-reversion factor?

Let $f$ be a variable which evolves according to the above. What does it mean to say that $\Phi$ is a mean-reversion factor? I mean, I guess it means $f_{t+1} = (1-\Phi)f_t + \epsilon_{t+1}$ and so ...
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When constructing a cointegrating series, does choosing the linear regression with the lowest ADF test statistic yield the optimal hedging ratio?

Multiple sources say that you should find the optimal hedging ratio between two stocks in a pairs trade by conducting 2 linear regressions (with each stock as the independent variable), and using ...
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323 views

How to calculate mean reversion values for Hull White tree calibration on MATLAB?

As part of a time series analysis, I'm writing a MATLAB program to create a Hull White tree, for the purpose of pricing a coupon-bearing bond. While using the function hwvolspec (volatility ...
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Quantitative Business Cycle Investing

Is there a major article or even better a comprehensive recent review article showing quantitative evidence for the existence of the business cycle and measuring the trending and mean reversion on ...
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383 views

Getting the next price of a GBM with reversion

Here is the "twin" question of Getting the next price of a GBM (Geometric Brownian Motion) but for GBM with reversion As in that case, I'd like to write a formula for the next price, as function of: ...
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1answer
448 views

Mean Reverting to its own variance?

Good morning all, When trying to decipher some documentation I have come across this stochastic process which seems to me much like a Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (or Vasicek) process. $$dX_t=-\kappa(X_t-\...
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1answer
517 views

Mean reversion formula in log normal or exponential form?

The formula for the mean reversion model in log normal form: $x=\ln(S)$ $x_{i+1} = x_i + [a(m-x_i)-\frac{1}{2}\sigma^2] dt + \sigma \sqrt{dt} \epsilon$ Can this formula be written in exponential ...
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mean reversion model estimation - what method?

how can I estimate this model for mean reversion?
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Exact value of mean reversion rate knowing terminal value of the process

Let you have the following mean reverting process: $\text{d}x_{t}=a(\theta-x_{t})\text{d}t$, where the diffusion term is absent, that is this process is not stochastic. Let you know the value of $\...