Questions tagged [mean-reversion]

A mean reverting process is a process that, over time, tends to drift toward its long-term mean.

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17
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2answers
2k views

Is there a standard method for quantifying mean-reversion for use in directional trading?

Assuming a directional strategy (no pairs or spread trades) is there a "standard" method for quantifying mean-reversion? Should auto-correlation, variance ratios, hurst exponent, or some other measure ...
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4answers
9k views

R code for Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process

Can any one help me with some R code to run Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process?
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3answers
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Categories of systematic trading strategies?

What are the main categories of systematic trading strategies (e.g. momentum, mean reversion), as might be considered by an index or fund-of-fund analyst? Are there any common sub-strategies?
14
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2answers
6k views

How to build a mean reverting basket?

I have been playing with mean reverting pairs, but seems that most of the low hanging fruit (ie pairs) have been squeezed already. I would like to start with mean reverting baskets (>2 securities) in ...
8
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1answer
670 views

Option pricing and mean reversion

In different books one can find a formula for option pricing when we assume that $\ln(S)$ follows a mean reversion process $$ dS_t/S_t=\kappa(\theta-\ln(S_t))dt+\sigma dZ$$ If we calculate an ...
8
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1answer
3k views

Mean Reversion Time Frame

I am running a mean reversion strategy. I have question with regards to half-life; I have heard of OU process to determine the half-life but it's not giving me that kind of result. Can anyone ...
8
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4answers
7k views

Is a stationary process necessarily mean-reverting?

Intuitively, a stationary stochastic process needs to be mean-reverting. This should follow immediately from the definition of stationarity: the mean of the process needs to be constant over time, so ...
8
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4answers
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Threshold calculation for buying a mean-reverting asset

I am trying to figure-out an optimal policy for buying a unit when its price follows a mean-reverting price process (Ornstein–Uhlenbeck), when I have a finite time deadline for buying the unit. I ...
7
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5answers
672 views

Modeling Long-Term Mean Reversion in Asset Returns

Fortunately, for obvious reasons, few applications require simulating asset returns over horizons in excess of 30 years. Nevertheless, simulations over long horizons are sometimes conducted as part ...
7
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1answer
991 views

How to approximate the time to mean reversion for implied volatility

Given an option and its implied volatility, and also the mean value of the implied volatility over the last 30 days, if we find that the current IV is significantly (> 1 std dev.) away from the mean, ...
7
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1answer
1k views

Is trading mean reversion of small principal components of prices profitable?

Many have told me that it is a good idea to look at the third principal component (PC) of yield curve movements, as well as third and fourth PC of G10 currencies. They claim these PCs represent "...
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Does your Parkinson volatility ratio work as Taleb explained?

According to Dynamic Hedging: Managing Vanilla and Exotic Options (Taleb, 1997), the Parkison volatility estimator has several meaningful properties. It is defined $$P=\sqrt{\frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^{n}\...
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1answer
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Calculating half life of mean reverting series with python

I am currently attempting to calculate the halflife of a mean reverting series using python programming language and the theory of the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. I have a series which when plotted ...
6
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1answer
700 views

Mean reversion time estimation

I am new to mean reversion trading, and I would like to get some good references about how to estimate the time it takes to a mean reverting process to cross its long term mean.
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2answers
266 views

Does predictability in a VAR process imply mean reversion or momentum?

There seems to be some disagreement in the literature about this. Define predicability of a stationary series to be $\sigma^2_{t-1} / \sigma^2_t$ Finding mean reverting portfolios using canonical ...
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0answers
171 views

What is the probability of ruin of a Geometric Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process?

I would like to calculate the probability of ruin (or, default), i.e. $$\text{Pr}(\tau<T),$$ where $\tau$ is the default time and $X_t$ follows the Geometric Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (O-U) process $$...
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1answer
2k views

Does mean reverting imply mean stationary?

If I have a time series that exhibits mean reverting properties, does it necessarily mean that the time series is mean stationary?
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How are momentum and reversion long/short strategies dynamically combined in trading?

I'm trying to understand how to combine two strategies dynamically in trading: one mean-reversion and the other momentum. One way (also the simplest one) of doing this is by scaling/normalizing ...
5
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1answer
222 views

What is the probability that a OU process hits an upper barrier U before a lower barrier L?

What is the probability that the arithmetic OU process $dx_t= \theta(\mu-x_t)dt+\sigma dW_t$ hits barrier $U$ before hitting barrier $L$ when $L<x_0<U$ ?
5
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1answer
429 views

Mean Crossing for Ornstein-Uhlenbeck

Suppose we have classic Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. How can we calculate expected number (and variance too) of crossing mean value over the certain period of time? Say, if we have discrete OU process ...
5
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1answer
297 views

Simple mean reversion strategy portfolio construction

I had a quick idea I wanted to test, but am not sure of the correct way to size bets. Basically, I think that for a given index (say S&P), I want to be long under performers and short over ...
4
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2answers
6k views

How can I estimate the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck paramters of some mean reverting data that I have on R?

I have mean reverting data (Difference of 2 stock prices, that I want to do pairs trading on). I want to simulate my own mean reverting data as similar as possible to the real data that I have. The ...
4
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1answer
223 views

Options Pricing and Mean Reversion

I'm confused about the impact that a mean reverting stock price process has on the value of an option on it. Several sources say that there is indeed an impact on the price of an option: Option ...
4
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2answers
892 views

Statistical significance of a pair trading strategy

How can I test the significance of a pair trading strategy, i.e. that the H0 is "The strategy has no predicting power". I was considering to use the technique in Evidence Based Technical Analysis ...
4
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1answer
2k views

Consequence of negative mean reversion of hull white one factor model

I tried to calibrate the data for hull-white one-factor model. Sometimes, I get negative estimate of mean reversion factor after the calibration process. When I plug the negative mean reversion factor ...
4
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1answer
262 views

Tests for Mean Reversion in a Portfolio Rebalancing

On a single time series one can run a Dickey-Fuller test to determine if the asset is mean reverting or at least has been mean reverting during your sample. Is there a way to test for mean-reversion ...
4
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2answers
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Why is the mean time-dependent in the Hull-White interest rate model?

In the Vasicek interest-rate model, the interest rate reverts to a constant mean. This makes sense to me. In my conception, the mean ought to be time-invariant, since interest rates don't follow an ...
4
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2answers
801 views

Why is OU process stationary?

The mean and variance of Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) process have time dependence (exponentially decay in time). So they are not constant in time. How can it to be stationary?
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2answers
228 views

What is the effect of mean-reversion on an upper barrier knock-out call option?

Consider a mean-reverting normal model for an underlying $dX^{(1)}_t=-\kappa X^{(1)}_tdt+\sigma^{(1)} dW^{(1)}_t$, for fixed time-independent constants, $\kappa$ (mean-reversion) and $\sigma^{(1)}$ (...
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0answers
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How to trade the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process?

My question comes from this paper, which is a short version of Avellaneda's paper The picture bellow provides a summary of the equations. Do I understand correctly that in order to trade OU process ...
4
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1answer
712 views

How to estimate parameters for 2 correlated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes with maximum likelihood?

I would like to use maximum likelihood to estimate the parameters of two correlated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes from empirical data. Do you have any good references for this? If you have any hints ...
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1answer
1k views

The meaning of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck parameters

I am trying to understand theOrnstein-Uhlenbeck process $dX_t = \kappa(\theta-X_t)dt + \sigma dW_t$ my question is what is the meaning of the parameters? and assuming that we know those parameters ...
3
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1answer
8k views

Speed of mean reversion of an interest rate model

I would like to have a bit more of intuition about the concept of "speed of mean reversion" for an interest rate model, e.g. Vasicek or CIR. In particular, is a negative speed of mean reversion ...
3
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2answers
664 views

Entry and exit points for very short mean-reverting timeseries

I have a model specifying a cointegration relationship on a number of transaction-level timeseries. I would like to specify entry and exit points for trades where these points ideally would be just ...
3
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1answer
348 views

Estimating mean reversion

I've read in some places that mean reversion parameters for a rates model, eg Hull White, can be estimated directly from the current yield curve. However I've not been able to find anything more on ...
3
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1answer
191 views

Electric power price parameter estimation

currently I am working through the paper of Tino Kluge "Pricing Swing Options and other Electricity Derivatives" to get a better understanding about the power markets. The author establishes methods ...
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2answers
118 views

Reference on Futures basis trading strategy

I have heard that it is possible to trade on the futures basis. In my understanding, the futures basis is essentially the difference between the futures price and the underlying asset (also referred ...
2
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1answer
1k views

What is the covariance of two correlated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes?

What is the covariance of two correlated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes? I was trying correlation(1,2)*Var1^(1/2)*Var2^(1/2), but I am not sure! I took Var1=(sigma1^2/(2*speedofmeanreversion1))*(1-exp(-...
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2answers
228 views

How to transform Ornstein-Uhlenbeck parameters from hourly to daily?

I get the parameters (long-term mean, volatility, mean-reversion speed, correlation) of two correlated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes via a likelihood estimation from hourly data. If I want to transform ...
2
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1answer
2k views

How is mean reversion implied by different valuations of Bermudan swaptions?

Someone told me that mean reversion can be implied by the different valuations of bermudan swaptions when using different methods for volatility calibration. Does anyone know what this means?
2
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1answer
282 views

R Mean Reversion Estimate on Funds

I am new to mean reversion, and I'd like to run an analysis on a fund (ts with monthly returns only) to see if mean reversion applies and if so, when it will happen. Most of the examples I found ...
2
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3answers
832 views

Cointegration pair trading - how to test a trading rule using Monte Carlo?

I am doing a research exercise where I have two price series $X_t, Y_t$ which I regress against each other and test for cointegration. Once I confirm that they are cointegrated (using CADF or ...
2
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1answer
218 views

Modeling the Stock Market [closed]

Hi I was wondering what is the model that best describes the price movement of the stock market? A Brownian motion Process with drift? An Ornstein Uhlenbeck_process? (where the long term mean is ...
2
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1answer
513 views

Mean reversion and adjusted beta for pairs trading

Trying to evaluate model for pairs trading. Consider classic formula: $\frac{dP}{P} = adt+b\frac{dQ}{Q}+dX$, where $P$ and $Q$ are stock prices, and $X$ is a mean reverting process (MRP) and $a$ is ...
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0answers
83 views

Position sizing for a mean reversion strategy

I have a model that returns z scores for a mean reversion strategy where z score is the current price minus average and divided by vol. At the moment, positions are sized inverse linear to the z ...
2
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0answers
58 views

Effect of mean reverting Volatality in Black and Scholes? [closed]

Can someone please elaborate what would be the effect of a mean reverting volatility (instead of a constant volatility) in pricing options using BS ? Also how would the greeks vary?
2
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0answers
178 views

What is a stochastic processes which reasonably captures commodity price dynamics?

I ran into a stumbling block earlier when I tried to price stochastic annuities (see Asian options). This is actually technically an acturial problem, but is well adapted to the techniques of quant ...
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0answers
215 views

Frequency Arbitrage

We know that the volatility is lower when the sampling period is longer, for example $\sigma_{7days} < \sigma_{1day}$, Then I came across this strategy that I cannot quite understand how to exploit ...
2
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0answers
556 views

Is there a difference between “regression toward the mean” vs “mean reversion”, in the context of financial time series and cash flow analysis?

I read the Wikipedia articles, and it implied that it was different: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean In finance, the term mean reversion has a different meaning. Jeremy ...
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0answers
354 views

cointegration strategy

If it can be proved that two time series $$S_t^1=\alpha + \beta S_t^2 + \xi_t$$ representing stocks are correlated, with $\beta=-2$ and then are proved to be cointegrated, how a portfolio should be ...