Questions tagged [modeling]
The modeling tag has no usage guidance.
216
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Is there any utility to being able to predict an assets current price?
I was playing around with some models, and I'm able to predict a stock's current price based on the current prices of other stocks. This model is extremely accurate, although I can't see any use of ...
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Fitting model between security price and intraday volatility
I'm trying to construct a model which shows how much the closing price of a security ($P_t$) differs from the VWAP of that security on that day ($VWAP_t$). I'm calling this measure the "VWAP ...
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Applying the Gordon stock model when there is one change in the dividend growth rate [closed]
Below is a problem I did. I am hoping somebody can confirm I did it correctly, or tell me where I went wrong.
Problem:
ABC Corp. has just paid a dividend of \$3 per share. You—an experienced analyst—...
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How to calculate the tom next / TN points for EURTRY, knowing that the spot dates differ, T+1 and T+2?
My input is the swap points curves for say EURUSD (spot T+2) and USDTRY (spot date T+1) as well as a spot rate reference.
The general approach for crossing when spot dates are the same is to calculate ...
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Separating jumps and diffusion
I want to model energy prices. I have two markets, lets say market 1 and 2.
Market 1 is continuously traded, and I will assume it follows brownian motion. So the value of the asset could be defined ...
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Methods of predicting liquidity consumption
Let's consider limit order book for a certain stock. By liquidity consumers i mean traders that buy/sell shares using market orders.
What are the known methods/models for predicting total amount of ...
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Replication of results shown in 'Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Returns' by Bali, Engle, and Murray
I'm currently trying to reproduce some results shown in the book 'Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Returns' by Bali, Engle, and Murray. More precisely, I try to compute Table 7.3 and 9.1. ...
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What are the most common methods to model fat tails in the changes of asset prices?
I was wondering what the most common, or most popular, ways - in both academia, and industry - there were to model the fat tails of volatility in asset prices changes.
I am presuming a basic Brownian ...
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Why would exchange rates follow a geometric brownian motion?
I'm reading Shreve's Stochastic Calculus for Finance.
On page 382, he begins talking about exchange rates:
Finally, there is an exchange rate $Q(t)$, which gives units of domestic currency per unit ...
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Out of Sample Results Decay Rapidly With Prediction Window or Embargo
So I am beginning to dabble my toe into quantitative finance and am trying to validate some model results and am having difficulty thinking about what they tell me.
Here's my situation: I'm trying to ...
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LIBOR Rate in Short-Rate Models
Hey I have problem with understanding the relation between short rate $r$ and LIBOR rates (which we need to calculate payoff from FRA, Caps, Swaption etc.). We know that Zero-Coupon Bond price is
$$P(...
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Hull-White model for yield curve prediction
I am using the Hull-White model (extended version of Vasicek) to predict Canadian zero-coupon bond yield curves. Most of the time the model does a pretty good job of fitting the real curve in terms of ...
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245
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Understanding out-of-sample performance metrics for Realized Volatility
I fitted several models on a realized volatility process and then proceeded to obtain out-of-sample results. I'm struggling to interpret these results apart from to tell model A seems better than ...
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Ideal daily leverage assuming Laplace distribution
Assumption; Laplace distribution is a reasonable representation of an index daily change. Starting out with index historical annualized CAGR and standard deviation. I find the Laplace distribution ...
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Does anyone have all of Paul Wilmott's "Spreadsheets and VBA" files?
I couldn't find it on his website and the only ones I have are the files contained in the Introduction to Quantitative Finance's CD.
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Can an IRS have a different payment calendar by leg?
I have to model IRS in an IT system and I have a question related to this modeling.
Can an IRS have a different payment calendar by leg ?
Thanks and regards
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How to estimate lambda from NAGARCH submodel in R
I am trying to estimate the model="fGARCH", submodel="NAGARCH" from the rugarch package in R.
However, when I am estimating the parameters, only omega, alpha, beta and gamma are ...
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Is it a problem that there are so few stocks in the generalized Black Scholes market? [duplicate]
In the standard Black Scholes market there is only one stock. In the generealized market there can be a finite amount, but my impression is that there are few stocks in the market. The real world ...
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Reconciling Two Claims About Volatility Under Fat Tails
I have read the Wikipedia article on volatility, and Nassim N. Taleb's Incerto, and found two statements attributed to Mandelbrot's views, which appear to be in contradiction.
Taleb (who was mentored ...
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Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) for the probability of default of corporates
I work in the financial industry and we want to implement an internal rating model for our clients (think corporates large or mid , banks etc. some listed on an exchange some others not).
We want to ...
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Non-fixed stationary "conversion"
Dear users of StackExchange,
I was wondering why the log returns of a fixed period of time is such a common use in "transforming" a time series into a more stationary one?
I thought that ...
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Do we model stock prices using non-Markovian processes in continuous setting?
In a continuous setting, is it common to model stock prices using non-Markovian processes ? If so, do you have some examples of models ? Or is Markovianity something "embedded" in the ...
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How do I deal with nonexistant data in a time series with an irregular frequency?
I am trying to do some time series analysis on the margin resulting from three specific commodity futures contracts and ultimately forecast the margin. The margin is calculated as M = F1 + F2 - F3. I ...
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In Lopez de Prado's Advances in Financial Machine Learning, what is meant by "unnecessary labels"?
In Lopez de Prado's Advances in Financial Machine Learning, Chapter 3, Prof. Lopez de Padro talks about dropping rare labels:
...
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Kalman Filtering theory and application in Finance models under asymmetric or incomplete information
Why do we need Kalman Filtering theory in dynamic models in finance when we consider an environment of asymmetric or incomplete information? I understand that this has to do with the update of the ...
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Which exact interest rate should I use for valuing equity index futures (ie. SPX, MXEA)?
I'm trying to build a model that values futures for equity indicies like SPX. For example, this product link here. I know that the model is simple (please correct me if I'm wrong):
$$
S_{T} =S_{0}e^{(...
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Other statistical financial modeling textbooks like Risk and asset allocation by Attilio Meucci
I recently read about the book (Risk and asset allocation) written by Attilio Meucci and I found those statistical modeling and inference methods quite robust in my point of view, although there are ...
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Should stock return series be modeled with a parametric distribution, or an autoregressive function? [closed]
If I have prior knowledg that a stock return series follows a parametric distribution, such as a Student t-distribution with 4 degrees of freedom, without actively looking for prior knowledge of ...
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463
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Mean Reverting Heston Model?
Is there a name for a variation on the Heston Stochastic Process Model where not only the underlying volatility but the asset price itself is mean-reverting? I'm looking to model long term equity ...
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What are different types of response variable we can consider while developing quant model
I was trying to understand the response variables used in the quantitative trading/investing model development. This question may not look good but I searched on google and could not find results. ...
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Why do we not use copula for forward starting options?
Why do we use copulas for spread options but do not use them to correlate random variables across time, such as in the forward starting option?
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Quantifying Mortgage Refinance Incentive: Why define the Refi Incentive as the log of Mortgage Rate/Market Rate
I'm reading this research article, where they are using survival analysis to study mortgage prepayments. In this article they define the mortgage holder's incentive to refinance as: $Refi = log(Mr_t$ $...
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PnL due to model recalibration and its relationship with hedging error
Consider the case where at t=0, I calibrate my model to the market, but at t=1 my model is no longer able to recover the price in the market, so it needs recalibration. Say I have delta hedged my ...
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In your experience, when trying to predict something that occurs, do you model with a fixed time period?
Let's say you are building a simple model (like the classroom examples) of trying to predict, given past information, if the stock goes up or down in the future. One could, like in classroom examples, ...
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Do different prices under different models admit arbitrage?
There are many models for interest rate. If two people use two different models to price the same interest rate derivative, and come to two different prices, doesn't that admit an arbitrage? How ...
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How are Autocallables modelled?
What models are used to price autocallables ? Should we talk about Heston/SABR models which talking about this topic ? Any reference link is welcome.
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Is there a good book/blog on applying statistical methods in finance? [closed]
I am learning a lot of tools in statistics, but I am having a hard time figuring out where I could apply these methods in finance, especially in relation to investment and trading.
Is there a good ...
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Searching for two papers of H.Leland with regards to capital structure
I am searching for two papers of H. Leland which I assume previously were online, as many published papers have cited them.
The first work (Lecture notes) extends the Leland(1994a) model by ...
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Calibrate a model parameter with an error function
Suppose I want to find the implied volatility using an option model from market prices. Surely I can find the implied volatility for each strike price ($k$ different strike prices) for a given ...
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Pros and cons of mean equation equal to zero in a GARCH model
I fitted a standard GARCH model. The mean equation has no AR or MA terms. All the coefficients in the variance equation are significant at 5%. However the mean equation has a constant term equal to ...
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tick/book data vs bar data, worth the infrastructure investment?
For reference, I am talking on behalf of a small group of math/stats graduate students as well as software engineers (we are 6 total), we know each other for years and decided to make a small (private)...
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modelling known regime shifts
I wish to model a price time series with a known regime shift: electricity price before during and after the introduction of a carbon price. The time series looks like this:
you can see the jump in ...
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Insight on how factor models achieve dimensionality-reduction?
Going through the literature on factor models, I keep seeing the phrase "dimensionality reduction" and how factor models allow for the modelling of assets in high-dimensional cases, and I would ...
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Framework for analyzing transaction history
After many years of being discretionary trader I'm finally moving to systematized trading.
I have all the transaction history from my broker I want to be the basis of my models.
Is there a framework ...
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Measuring corporate size relative to world GDP
I'm working o a model where corporate revenue / world GDP is a dependent variable of some stuff (based on the model proposed in this paper: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?pid=S1807-76922009000200002&...
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Why do Factor Models set up their factors differently from regression?
While this may be awkwardly-titled, I hope that my question becomes clearer upon reading.
So this is what I gather about Factor Models: they are statistical models set up to explain the returns, ${...
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Exponential Smoothing - Alpha greater than 1
Simple stats question.
I'm having trouble finding anything in the literature as to why the smoothing coefficient can never be greater than 1. This question was started by me doing time series ARIMA ...
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CMS BondEdge "cash flow testing" (forecasts) and market values
CMS BondEdge is able to produce a stream of cash flows for a portfolio of bonds, by cusip, over a variety of interest rate scenarios. In the "cash flow testing" exercise at insurance companies, these ...
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Local volatility model equivalent reformulation
Do we have a equivalent formulation of the local volatility model, where the SDE of the model would be on the volatility and S would be a functional of the the volatility and time?
Thanks.
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Bitcoin dynamics - C++ Simulation
I would like perform a simulation of Bitcoin future prices given a sample of the 4 past years (2014-2018). My problem is that I do not know what model to use! For common stocks I used the geometric ...
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