Questions tagged [modeling]

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18 views

What are different types of response variable we can consider while developing quant model

I was trying to understand the response variables used in the quantitative trading/investing model development. This question may not look good but I searched on google and could not find results. ...
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1answer
184 views

Why do we not use copula for forward starting options?

Why do we use copulas for spread options but do not use them to correlate random variables across time, such as in the forward starting option?
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29 views

Quantifying Mortgage Refinance Incentive: Why define the Refi Incentive as the log of Mortgage Rate/Market Rate

I'm reading this research article, where they are using survival analysis to study mortgage prepayments. In this article they define the mortgage holder's incentive to refinance as: $Refi = log(Mr_t$ $...
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1answer
81 views

PnL due to model recalibration and its relationship with hedging error

Consider the case where at t=0, I calibrate my model to the market, but at t=1 my model is no longer able to recover the price in the market, so it needs recalibration. Say I have delta hedged my ...
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1answer
29 views

In your experience, when trying to predict something that occurs, do you model with a fixed time period?

Let's say you are building a simple model (like the classroom examples) of trying to predict, given past information, if the stock goes up or down in the future. One could, like in classroom examples, ...
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1answer
121 views

Do different prices under different models admit arbitrage?

There are many models for interest rate. If two people use two different models to price the same interest rate derivative, and come to two different prices, doesn't that admit an arbitrage? How ...
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57 views

Adapting a DCF valuation model for individual investors investing in a residential real estate asset and studying its implications

I am trying to better understand discounted cash flow (DCF) valuations to compute the net present value (NPV) of the collection of cash flows arising from the process of buying, holding, and selling a ...
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19 views

Grade system for backtesting key figures

I want to backtest my trading algorithm. The algorithm trades on a low timeframe with 400 “unique” trades. With unique I mean that it can place 1 or more of those 400 trades given different market ...
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101 views

How are Autocallables modelled?

What models are used to price autocallables ? Should we talk about Heston/SABR models which talking about this topic ? Any reference link is welcome.
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79 views

Is there a good book/blog on applying statistical methods in finance? [closed]

I am learning a lot of tools in statistics, but I am having a hard time figuring out where I could apply these methods in finance, especially in relation to investment and trading. Is there a good ...
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52 views

Searching for two papers of H.Leland with regards to capital structure

I am searching for two papers of H. Leland which I assume previously were online, as many published papers have cited them. The first work (Lecture notes) extends the Leland(1994a) model by ...
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1answer
59 views

Calibrate a model parameter with an error function

Suppose I want to find the implied volatility using an option model from market prices. Surely I can find the implied volatility for each strike price ($k$ different strike prices) for a given ...
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2answers
185 views

Pros and cons of mean equation equal to zero in a GARCH model

I fitted a standard GARCH model. The mean equation has no AR or MA terms. All the coefficients in the variance equation are significant at 5%. However the mean equation has a constant term equal to ...
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0answers
53 views

tick/book data vs bar data, worth the infrastructure investment?

For reference, I am talking on behalf of a small group of math/stats graduate students as well as software engineers (we are 6 total), we know each other for years and decided to make a small (private)...
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0answers
66 views

modelling known regime shifts

I wish to model a price time series with a known regime shift: electricity price before during and after the introduction of a carbon price. The time series looks like this: you can see the jump in ...
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3answers
117 views

Insight on how factor models achieve dimensionality-reduction?

Going through the literature on factor models, I keep seeing the phrase "dimensionality reduction" and how factor models allow for the modelling of assets in high-dimensional cases, and I would ...
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0answers
76 views

Framework for analyzing transaction history

After many years of being discretionary trader I'm finally moving to systematized trading. I have all the transaction history from my broker I want to be the basis of my models. Is there a framework ...
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0answers
53 views

Measuring corporate size relative to world GDP

I'm working o a model where corporate revenue / world GDP is a dependent variable of some stuff (based on the model proposed in this paper: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?pid=S1807-76922009000200002&...
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1answer
147 views

Why do Factor Models set up their factors differently from regression?

While this may be awkwardly-titled, I hope that my question becomes clearer upon reading. So this is what I gather about Factor Models: they are statistical models set up to explain the returns, ${...
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1answer
191 views

Exponential Smoothing - Alpha greater than 1

Simple stats question. I'm having trouble finding anything in the literature as to why the smoothing coefficient can never be greater than 1. This question was started by me doing time series ARIMA ...
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1answer
59 views

CMS BondEdge “cash flow testing” (forecasts) and market values

CMS BondEdge is able to produce a stream of cash flows for a portfolio of bonds, by cusip, over a variety of interest rate scenarios. In the "cash flow testing" exercise at insurance companies, these ...
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0answers
63 views

Local volatility model equivalent reformulation

Do we have a equivalent formulation of the local volatility model, where the SDE of the model would be on the volatility and S would be a functional of the the volatility and time? Thanks.
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1answer
162 views

Bitcoin dynamics - C++ Simulation

I would like perform a simulation of Bitcoin future prices given a sample of the 4 past years (2014-2018). My problem is that I do not know what model to use! For common stocks I used the geometric ...
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1answer
156 views

Mathematical models for personal finance decisions

I'm doing some bibliographic research on mathematical models for personal finance decisions. I should like to ask whether you know any of them, because the research that I did on Google Scholar haven'...
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1answer
94 views

Backtesting model results, but backtesting output sampled at different frequency than model output

So, I'm trying to backtest a model that computes P&L. This model pulls sensitivities on a weekly basis and applies market shocks to these sensitivities to project quarterly P&L. I want to ...
2
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3answers
250 views

Adjustments for Multicollinearity in Returns-Based Style Analysis

I am currently researching how to estimate a portfolio's effective mix (essentially figuring which weights to hold in broad indices that would have produced most similar return patterns). Sharpe's ...
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0answers
64 views

Preferred Stock pricing model

I am trying to build a model to price a preferred stock. I want to model the dividends as random payments. I can't find any papers online on the subject. Does anyone have a reference for me?
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1answer
609 views

why calibrate volatility and fix the mean reversion

I have had a few experiences or chats with teammates about the Hull-White model. The famous model has 2 parameters : The volatility The mean reversion Very often I hear that the mean reversion has ...
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2answers
113 views

Failing Jarque-Bera test but residuals looks normal on q-q plot and histogram

If I'm failing the Jarque-Bera test but the residuals still appear to be normally on a qq plot and histogram, is it acceptable to say that my residuals are approximately normally distributed? Asked ...
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4answers
107 views

How to test the linearity assumption of a model?

Let's say I want to have a model that projects income over a stressed period. I have a marked-to-market component that shows the P&L of trading book positions during this stressed period. Along ...
2
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1answer
1k views

Is this the correct way to forecast stock price volatility using GARCH

I am attempting to make a forecast of a stock's volatility some time into the future (say 90 days). It seems that GARCH is a traditionally used model for this. I have implemented this below using ...
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1answer
52 views

Smoothing of Implied Volatilty

I'm using ATM 30D implied volatility in a model I'm building, but need to smooth out the data. Is the best way just to use exponential smoothing or are there any better alternatives?
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1answer
220 views

How to understand the role of stochastic differential equations models in finance, in particular in managing portfolios?

I just begin to read Stochastic Volatility Modeling by Lorenzo Bergomi. I t is very inspiring to me, but there are some statements which confuse me and I would like to ask for help here. In the ...
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1answer
141 views

MPT Efficient portfolio /Asset allocation

When finding the optimal allocation using markovitz, the model will return '0' weights for assets that are "inefficient". What is the standard way for dealing with these weights if all assets have to ...
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2answers
142 views

Procedures to follow when VaR model fails backtest

I was wondering what the correct procedure is to follow when a VaR model fails a backtest (either conditional coverage and/or independence tests)? Assuming I am restricted to using a historical VaR ...
3
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1answer
639 views

Monte Carlo model with multiple assets step by step

Here are the following steps to calculate Monte Carlo VaR. I am learning how to proceed with each steps and I would need somebody who can explain. Do I have to create only 1 vector in step 4 (even if ...
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2answers
130 views

Distribution of data for GBM

I am running some Monte Carlo simulations with GBM on time series of commodity prices. First of all, the price data is annual between 1900-1950. I would firstly like to know if it is bad practice to ...
2
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1answer
159 views

Why Arent There Long Rate Models?

You have short rate models, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short-rate_model, but there doesnt seem to be any long rate models. I find this weird as in options modelling you model the whole smile, not ...
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1answer
40 views

How to interpret the accuracy result of the forecaste?

I'm trying to forecast the vacancy rate of multifamily rental property. I have the data from 1992 until today. I'm trying to fit a model with the serie without the last 2 observations. I only need ...
11
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1answer
1k views

Market Making Strategies Found by Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman Equation

Im working my way through the book "Algorithmic and High-Frequency Trading" (AHFT) by Cartea, Jaimungal and Penalva and i'm curious to see how the market making model with an exponential utility ...
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2answers
57 views

Modeling exercise notice time using lattices?

I am interested in modeling callable (say European) bonds which have a time gap between when the future call exercise is decided and when the call actually occurs (payoff) - say 7 business days. I am ...
5
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1answer
216 views

how are financial data with sparse and asynchronous features imputed in predictive modeling?

I watched a presentation from a large quantitative finance firm that spends a lot of effort around predictive modeling. One of the points the presenter emphasized was that they deal with a lot of ...
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1answer
54 views

Which expression of $S_t$ to use under the Black-Scholes model?

I am currently looking at example exam questions relating to the evolution of a stock price under the Black-Scholes model. However, I am confused by seemingly inconsistent expressions used for the ...
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0answers
77 views

“Correct” way to average OAS of multiple securities?

Suppose one wants to compute an OAS on a portfolio of securities, but one can only compute the OAS of the individual securities. Is there a "best" way (under some metric) for one to go about doing ...
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0answers
176 views

Vega with SVI Gatheral bumps

How would one go about computing a vega profile of an exotic derivative where the volatility surface is modeled using Gatheral's SVI parameterization? In particular, I am thinking about bumping each ...
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1answer
301 views

Lattice pricing of derivatives under multi curve framework (OIS and LIBOR)

My goal is to price various derivatives resetting to 1M and 3M LIBOR via using a lattice. I have calculated an OIS curve for discounting and adjusted 1M and 3M LIBOR forward curves to be consistent ...
4
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3answers
515 views

Physical commodity trading quantitative risk return model

I am very new to commodities, I was previously in portfolio management/optimization (Black Litterman Markowitz etc). I am now a Buy-Sell analyst for Petrochemicals, and need to understand the basic ...
2
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2answers
1k views

Accrual in Default Derivation of Credit CDS Curve

In Trading Credit Curves Part I by JP Morgan we have that each point on a credit (CDS) curve represents: $$PV(\text{Fee Leg}) = PV(\text{Contingent Leg})$$ which is $$S_n \sum_{i=1}^{n}\Delta_i ...
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1answer
448 views

Monte Carlo Simulation of price processes

before I ask my question I want to illustrate what I think I know about Monte Carlo simulation: say I want to simulate the price paths of one European Call Option with fixed strike and maturity in the ...
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0answers
71 views

Equity Options - “How do I build a forward simulation model with regards to shocks in spot pricing and IV?”

I am trying to build a "What-If" Portfolio, consisting of a total of 20 options, across different tenors, strikes (delta), but on the same security. Simply put, the objective is for me to test the ...