Questions tagged [modeling]

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Modeling compounded RFRs with Vasicek

I’m wondering if simple interest rates models, like Vasicek, could be successfully used for modeling compounded setting-in-arrears rates (compounded SOFR for example)? As far as I see I can do that ...
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Predatory trading as a game of size

Predatory trading has been addressed in literature frequently. I have read for example Brunnemeier (2005) but that paper mostly addresses predatory trading surrounding a preexisting distressed trader. ...
1 vote
46 views

Question about the "VolZScore" in this article about applying the Boids algorith to equities to find flocking behavior

In this article, "Flocking behavior of US equities": https://www.cs.dartmouth.edu/~lorenzo/teaching/cs174/Archive/Winter2013/Projects/FinalReportWriteup/ira.r.jenkins.gr/final.html They use ...
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How to mathematically model Bid and Ask as two separate processes, and combine into a Price process?

Let's say you were modeling bid and ask as two separate processes. With their own mean and variance. And with the constraint that ask must be greater than or equal to bid. How would you then ...
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Option pricing model adjustments in practice

I’m trying to understand significant differences in theoretical options pricing data that I‘m seeing. I’m new to this, so I suspect I’m missing something obvious. Taking a fixed set of inputs 1, when ...
179 views

Preferred Option pricing model [closed]

I am at Uni studying mathematical finance and wanted to know which is most preferred /widely used model by Finance Industry Practitioners from the list below. Fourier Transform for option pricing ...
35 views

YUIMA: Drift and diffusion parameters must be different?

I am currently working with the Yuima package and trying the estimate the parameters of a CARMA(p,q) model to real data. Using the eacf function of the TSA package a ARMA (2,1) process is recommended ...
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Simulating the Term Structure of Interest Rates in the CIR model

I have successfully implemented the CIR model of the short rate, and now want to use these short rate paths to construct distributions of various tenors - 2y, 3y, 5y, 10y for example - across the ...
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1 vote
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Inverse differencing in continuous time

I want to fit a continuous time ARMA (CARMA) model to traffic data $T_t$. After removing trend and seasonality I need first order differencing to obtain stationarity. Then I fit a CARMA model (yuima ...
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Risk aversion and inter dependency in finance

In almost all papers that I read in quantitative finance trying to model a situation where several financial agents interact the distribution of the individual risk aversion is considered as ...
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Explicit pythonic building of Flat Forward Curve using Changes assumed from central bank meetings to price FRAs

This question is related to the following questions asked previously, primarily the first: Using QuantLib to build Flat Forward Curve using Changes assumed from central bank meetings to price FRAs ...
1 vote
94 views

How to construct continuous futures contracts with multiple maturities

I am trying to replicate the Schwartz-Smith (2000) model and having an issue understanding what the data is and how to generate it. Specifically, the authors use a table of continuous futures with ...
72 views

Two-period binomial model probability question

I have started to work with given two period binomial model S(0)=100 u=1.25 d=0.8 r=0.05 and the market probability of stock going up each period is p=0.55. I am trying to calculate two probabilities; ...
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1 vote
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Is the impact of "small" orders on market dynamics more than is commonly assumed?

When modeling the dynamics of a market, a common assumption is that the impact of a "small" (e.g. very low percentage of daily traded volume) order on current and future observations of the ...
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Potential Future Exposure for vanilla swap

I need to calculate the PFE for vanilla swap. I wonder if it makes sense to simulate the MC scenarios with a 1-factor Hull white model. In my opinion, this model only allows parallel curve ...
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1 vote
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Climate Models in Banking - what modeling are banks currently doing?

I'm mostly interested in knowing what banks are doing in Ireland and other Western European countries. I know, from Google searches, that banks are currently doing climate risk stress-testing, but I'm ...
52 views

Modelling support and resistance using sde

This initiative was sparked by the identification of cointegrated pairs, fitting them to an OU process, and devising an optimal strategy based on the OU process—areas that have already been well ...
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Models for tick-by-tick / high-frequency data

I've spoken to one or two persons at some market making shops, and I'm under the impression that for modelling tick data, aside from the rise of ML, a pure jump process such as the variance gamma ...
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Loan modelling using Opensource risk engine (ORE)

The problem is to calculate the cash flow schedule for a simple fixed rate loan where principal amortization periodicity is not equal to interest payment periodicity. For example, amortization is ...
42 views

Pricing non-vanilla options on EuroStoxx50 dividend futures

Liquid vanilla EuroStoxx50 dividend futures options quoted on Eurex are calls or puts whose expiries are the same as the expiry of the underlying futures contract. Is there any "simple" ...
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273 views

Is there a common way that level 2 and time & sales data are analyzed together?

Let's say that for a single asset, we have a data stream from which we receive both level 2 order book updates (price level/quantity updates) as well as time & sales updates (grouped recent trades)...
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390 views

Target variables in high frequency trading [closed]

Given that we are a market taker (removing liquidity from the limit order book through market orders), what should we be trying to forecast? It seems like the most pertinent thing for us to forecast ...
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398 views

How are order book and trade data consolidated/distilled into a more(?) tractable form for modeling?

Let's say that there's some asset traded on an exchange and that, for this asset, I have access to a snapshot of the limit order book (price level and quantity for bids and offers) and subsequent ...
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Is there daily SPX level data going back to 1927?

While attempting to model the SPX index over time, I found a source here that purportedly has historical daily SPX data going back to 1789 which very likely seems to be backcasted since the ~500 stock ...
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Separating jumps and diffusion

I want to model energy prices. I have two markets, lets say market 1 and 2. Market 1 is continuously traded, and I will assume it follows brownian motion. So the value of the asset could be defined ...
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1 vote
71 views

Methods of predicting liquidity consumption

Let's consider limit order book for a certain stock. By liquidity consumers i mean traders that buy/sell shares using market orders. What are the known methods/models for predicting total amount of ...
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1 vote
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Replication of results shown in 'Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Returns' by Bali, Engle, and Murray

I'm currently trying to reproduce some results shown in the book 'Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Returns' by Bali, Engle, and Murray. More precisely, I try to compute Table 7.3 and 9.1. ...
238 views

What are the most common methods to model fat tails in the changes of asset prices?

I was wondering what the most common, or most popular, ways - in both academia, and industry - there were to model the fat tails of volatility in asset prices changes. I am presuming a basic Brownian ...
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Why would exchange rates follow a geometric brownian motion?

I'm reading Shreve's Stochastic Calculus for Finance. On page 382, he begins talking about exchange rates: Finally, there is an exchange rate $Q(t)$, which gives units of domestic currency per unit ...
124 views

Out of Sample Results Decay Rapidly With Prediction Window or Embargo

So I am beginning to dabble my toe into quantitative finance and am trying to validate some model results and am having difficulty thinking about what they tell me. Here's my situation: I'm trying to ...
1 vote
517 views

Understanding out-of-sample performance metrics for Realized Volatility

I fitted several models on a realized volatility process and then proceeded to obtain out-of-sample results. I'm struggling to interpret these results apart from to tell model A seems better than ...
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Does anyone have all of Paul Wilmott's "Spreadsheets and VBA" files?

I couldn't find it on his website and the only ones I have are the files contained in the Introduction to Quantitative Finance's CD.
992 views

Can an IRS have a different payment calendar by leg?

I have to model IRS in an IT system and I have a question related to this modeling. Can an IRS have a different payment calendar by leg ? Thanks and regards
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How to estimate lambda from NAGARCH submodel in R

I am trying to estimate the model="fGARCH", submodel="NAGARCH" from the rugarch package in R. However, when I am estimating the parameters, only omega, alpha, beta and gamma are ...
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Is it a problem that there are so few stocks in the generalized Black Scholes market? [duplicate]

In the standard Black Scholes market there is only one stock. In the generealized market there can be a finite amount, but my impression is that there are few stocks in the market. The real world ...
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Reconciling Two Claims About Volatility Under Fat Tails

I have read the Wikipedia article on volatility, and Nassim N. Taleb's Incerto, and found two statements attributed to Mandelbrot's views, which appear to be in contradiction. Taleb (who was mentored ...
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160 views

Generalized Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) for the probability of default of corporates

I work in the financial industry and we want to implement an internal rating model for our clients (think corporates large or mid , banks etc. some listed on an exchange some others not). We want to ...
151 views

Non-fixed stationary "conversion"

Dear users of StackExchange, I was wondering why the log returns of a fixed period of time is such a common use in "transforming" a time series into a more stationary one? I thought that ...
191 views

Do we model stock prices using non-Markovian processes in continuous setting?

In a continuous setting, is it common to model stock prices using non-Markovian processes ? If so, do you have some examples of models ? Or is Markovianity something "embedded" in the ...
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50 views

How do I deal with nonexistant data in a time series with an irregular frequency?

I am trying to do some time series analysis on the margin resulting from three specific commodity futures contracts and ultimately forecast the margin. The margin is calculated as M = F1 + F2 - F3. I ...
219 views

In Lopez de Prado's Advances in Financial Machine Learning, what is meant by "unnecessary labels"?

In Lopez de Prado's Advances in Financial Machine Learning, Chapter 3, Prof. Lopez de Padro talks about dropping rare labels: ...
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1 vote