Questions tagged [modeling]

The tag has no usage guidance.

Filter by
Sorted by
Tagged with
0
votes
0answers
18 views

predefined model structure for stock data

I've signed up for stock data service (IEX Cloud). I now want to fetch and save the data locally. I will need to design the ERD, is there a pre-defined open-source model (preferably Django) that I ...
0
votes
0answers
15 views

Adjust the Capital Market Line For Margin Interest

Modern Portfolio Theory assumes unlimited borrowing and investing at the risk-free rate. Of course, this is not realistic; margin interest costs several multiples of the RFR, especially for portfolios ...
1
vote
0answers
59 views

Framework for analyzing transaction history

After many years of being discretionary trader I'm finally moving to systematized trading. I have all the transaction history from my broker I want to be the basis of my models. Is there a framework ...
1
vote
0answers
53 views

Measuring corporate size relative to world GDP

I'm working o a model where corporate revenue / world GDP is a dependent variable of some stuff (based on the model proposed in this paper: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?pid=S1807-76922009000200002&...
1
vote
1answer
60 views

Why do Factor Models set up their factors differently from regression?

While this may be awkwardly-titled, I hope that my question becomes clearer upon reading. So this is what I gather about Factor Models: they are statistical models set up to explain the returns, ${...
0
votes
1answer
76 views

Exponential Smoothing - Alpha greater than 1

Simple stats question. I'm having trouble finding anything in the literature as to why the smoothing coefficient can never be greater than 1. This question was started by me doing time series ARIMA ...
0
votes
0answers
37 views
1
vote
1answer
33 views

CMS BondEdge “cash flow testing” (forecasts) and market values

CMS BondEdge is able to produce a stream of cash flows for a portfolio of bonds, by cusip, over a variety of interest rate scenarios. In the "cash flow testing" exercise at insurance companies, these ...
1
vote
0answers
49 views

Local volatility model equivalent reformulation

Do we have a equivalent formulation of the local volatility model, where the SDE of the model would be on the volatility and S would be a functional of the the volatility and time? Thanks.
1
vote
1answer
116 views

Bitcoin dynamics - C++ Simulation

I would like perform a simulation of Bitcoin future prices given a sample of the 4 past years (2014-2018). My problem is that I do not know what model to use! For common stocks I used the geometric ...
1
vote
1answer
139 views

Mathematical models for personal finance decisions

I'm doing some bibliographic research on mathematical models for personal finance decisions. I should like to ask whether you know any of them, because the research that I did on Google Scholar haven'...
1
vote
1answer
45 views

Backtesting model results, but backtesting output sampled at different frequency than model output

So, I'm trying to backtest a model that computes P&L. This model pulls sensitivities on a weekly basis and applies market shocks to these sensitivities to project quarterly P&L. I want to ...
2
votes
3answers
227 views

Adjustments for Multicollinearity in Returns-Based Style Analysis

I am currently researching how to estimate a portfolio's effective mix (essentially figuring which weights to hold in broad indices that would have produced most similar return patterns). Sharpe's ...
1
vote
0answers
48 views

Preferred Stock pricing model

I am trying to build a model to price a preferred stock. I want to model the dividends as random payments. I can't find any papers online on the subject. Does anyone have a reference for me?
4
votes
1answer
276 views

why calibrate volatility and fix the mean reversion

I have had a few experiences or chats with teammates about the Hull-White model. The famous model has 2 parameters : The volatility The mean reversion Very often I hear that the mean reversion has ...
2
votes
2answers
76 views

Failing Jarque-Bera test but residuals looks normal on q-q plot and histogram

If I'm failing the Jarque-Bera test but the residuals still appear to be normally on a qq plot and histogram, is it acceptable to say that my residuals are approximately normally distributed? Asked ...
0
votes
4answers
94 views

How to test the linearity assumption of a model?

Let's say I want to have a model that projects income over a stressed period. I have a marked-to-market component that shows the P&L of trading book positions during this stressed period. Along ...
1
vote
1answer
243 views

Is this the correct way to forecast stock price volatility using GARCH

I am attempting to make a forecast of a stock's volatility some time into the future (say 90 days). It seems that GARCH is a traditionally used model for this. I have implemented this below using ...
-1
votes
1answer
41 views

Smoothing of Implied Volatilty

I'm using ATM 30D implied volatility in a model I'm building, but need to smooth out the data. Is the best way just to use exponential smoothing or are there any better alternatives?
1
vote
1answer
170 views

How to understand the role of stochastic differential equations models in finance, in particular in managing portfolios?

I just begin to read Stochastic Volatility Modeling by Lorenzo Bergomi. I t is very inspiring to me, but there are some statements which confuse me and I would like to ask for help here. In the ...
1
vote
1answer
106 views

MPT Efficient portfolio /Asset allocation

When finding the optimal allocation using markovitz, the model will return '0' weights for assets that are "inefficient". What is the standard way for dealing with these weights if all assets have to ...
0
votes
2answers
77 views

Procedures to follow when VaR model fails backtest

I was wondering what the correct procedure is to follow when a VaR model fails a backtest (either conditional coverage and/or independence tests)? Assuming I am restricted to using a historical VaR ...
3
votes
1answer
312 views

Monte Carlo model with multiple assets step by step

Here are the following steps to calculate Monte Carlo VaR. I am learning how to proceed with each steps and I would need somebody who can explain. Do I have to create only 1 vector in step 4 (even if ...
1
vote
2answers
96 views

Distribution of data for GBM

I am running some Monte Carlo simulations with GBM on time series of commodity prices. First of all, the price data is annual between 1900-1950. I would firstly like to know if it is bad practice to ...
2
votes
1answer
152 views

Why Arent There Long Rate Models?

You have short rate models, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short-rate_model, but there doesnt seem to be any long rate models. I find this weird as in options modelling you model the whole smile, not ...
-1
votes
1answer
38 views

How to interpret the accuracy result of the forecaste?

I'm trying to forecast the vacancy rate of multifamily rental property. I have the data from 1992 until today. I'm trying to fit a model with the serie without the last 2 observations. I only need ...
0
votes
0answers
213 views

How Machine Learning model addresses adverse action concerns -credit scorcard?

How to find the variables involved in the decision to report adverse action when the origination scorecard is developed using Machine Learning - XGBOOST with monotonic constraints (80 variables) ...
10
votes
1answer
578 views

Market Making Strategies Found by Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman Equation

Im working my way through the book "Algorithmic and High-Frequency Trading" (AHFT) by Cartea, Jaimungal and Penalva and i'm curious to see how the market making model with an exponential utility ...
1
vote
2answers
50 views

Modeling exercise notice time using lattices?

I am interested in modeling callable (say European) bonds which have a time gap between when the future call exercise is decided and when the call actually occurs (payoff) - say 7 business days. I am ...
5
votes
1answer
167 views

how are financial data with sparse and asynchronous features imputed in predictive modeling?

I watched a presentation from a large quantitative finance firm that spends a lot of effort around predictive modeling. One of the points the presenter emphasized was that they deal with a lot of ...
-4
votes
1answer
50 views

Which expression of $S_t$ to use under the Black-Scholes model?

I am currently looking at example exam questions relating to the evolution of a stock price under the Black-Scholes model. However, I am confused by seemingly inconsistent expressions used for the ...
1
vote
0answers
60 views

“Correct” way to average OAS of multiple securities?

Suppose one wants to compute an OAS on a portfolio of securities, but one can only compute the OAS of the individual securities. Is there a "best" way (under some metric) for one to go about doing ...
1
vote
0answers
127 views

Vega with SVI Gatheral bumps

How would one go about computing a vega profile of an exotic derivative where the volatility surface is modeled using Gatheral's SVI parameterization? In particular, I am thinking about bumping each ...
1
vote
1answer
163 views

Lattice pricing of derivatives under multi curve framework (OIS and LIBOR)

My goal is to price various derivatives resetting to 1M and 3M LIBOR via using a lattice. I have calculated an OIS curve for discounting and adjusted 1M and 3M LIBOR forward curves to be consistent ...
4
votes
2answers
267 views

Physical commodity trading quantitative risk return model

I am very new to commodities, I was previously in portfolio management/optimization (Black Litterman Markowitz etc). I am now a Buy-Sell analyst for Petrochemicals, and need to understand the basic ...
2
votes
2answers
689 views

Accrual in Default Derivation of Credit CDS Curve

In Trading Credit Curves Part I by JP Morgan we have that each point on a credit (CDS) curve represents: $$PV(\text{Fee Leg}) = PV(\text{Contingent Leg})$$ which is $$S_n \sum_{i=1}^{n}\Delta_i ...
2
votes
1answer
235 views

Monte Carlo Simulation of price processes

before I ask my question I want to illustrate what I think I know about Monte Carlo simulation: say I want to simulate the price paths of one European Call Option with fixed strike and maturity in the ...
3
votes
0answers
61 views

Equity Options - “How do I build a forward simulation model with regards to shocks in spot pricing and IV?”

I am trying to build a "What-If" Portfolio, consisting of a total of 20 options, across different tenors, strikes (delta), but on the same security. Simply put, the objective is for me to test the ...
1
vote
1answer
72 views

Use of fBm when $H<1/2$

Let H be the Hurst parameter of the Fractional Brownian Motion. Are there any useful areas in mathematical finance where the fractional brownian motion with H<1/2 is used? From all the articles I ...
0
votes
0answers
38 views

Multi-Variate linear modeling: how to calculate mathematically vs brute force genetic optimization

I have a hand full of daily economic data. I am currently using a brute force approach. Genetic optimization is only used when k is very large. This method is beautiful to me, but isn't valuable ...
1
vote
0answers
46 views

Binary or Multiclass Classification?

So I've been using ensemble methods to model stock price movement, using intraday per-minute data in the OHLCV format, with the prediction being a 1 if the future close goes up, and 0 if it goes down. ...
0
votes
1answer
61 views

What relevance might the Modigliani-Miller theorem have for weight of evidence?

Suppose in computing weight of evidence based on financial ratios of some bank, one finds that their debt ratio and equity ratio have largely (you pick how large I guess) differing weights of evidence....
-1
votes
2answers
50 views

Is “interest” positive or negative in the “free cash flow to firm” model?

FCFF = net income + non-cash charges + interest x (1 - tax rate) - long-term investments - investments in working capital My intuition is: if the company is receiving interests payments, then the ...
1
vote
1answer
211 views

Extending risk neutral measure to insurance/mortality filtration

In insurance mathematics, one often models the underlying of an insurance policy with a Black Scholes model on a filtered probability space $(\Omega,\mathbb{Q},\mathcal{F},\mathbb{F}=(\mathcal{F}_{t}))...
2
votes
0answers
250 views

Good books on predictive modeling (for alpha signal research)

In terms of books on predictive models, I find ESL (elements of statistical learning) trying to cover too much and serves more like a reference, instead of explaining and developing the theories for ...
0
votes
1answer
384 views

Trouble understanding lookahead bias

I understand lookahead bias is pretty common industry knowledge. But I cannot wrap my head around how I am introducing it and could use a nice and easy explanation. Here's my thought process. I have $...
0
votes
0answers
38 views

What is the whole list of assumption that Ho Lee model was under?

What is the whole list of assumption that Ho Lee model was under? Please briefly describe how was each assumption match the real world finance/economics applications so that it shows how the model ...
1
vote
1answer
527 views

Matlab implementation for modelling stock price process

I am trying to model the stock's price process. Let's assume volatility and risk-free rate is given. I've come up with the code below to try and model the price process with the geometrical Brownian ...
7
votes
3answers
1k views

Model to Predict the Change in IV of an Option

I am looking for a model that would allow me to predict the change in the Implied Volatility of an option based on a hypothetical change in the market. The goal is to create a better simulation of ...
10
votes
3answers
956 views

What's the correct choice for modeling correlated stock prices?

Let's assume we're happy with simulating $n$ stocks as geometric Brownian motion (GBM). But say we also want the prices to be correlated. When I searched around for how to construct correlated paths, ...