# Questions tagged [modeling]

The tag has no usage guidance.

240 questions
Filter by
Sorted by
Tagged with
813 views

### Coin Toss System

Coin Toss Runs Calculator The expected number of runs for two consecutive heads or tails is 3. Is there an edge if we place a progressive constant size bet(limited to 3 times)for consecutive ...
• 131
266 views

### Modeling asset performance to Bitcoin revenue

I'm attempting to model asset performance to Bitcoin revenue, which is a driving force in the Bitcoin community. Question Is there any model, or research being done that tracks "hashes per second" (...
3k views

### Can the Heston model be shown to reduce to the original Black Scholes model if appropriate parameters are chosen?

Summary For Heston model parameters that render the variance process constant, the solution should revert to plain Black-Scholes. Closed from solutions to the Heston model don't seem to do this, even ...
• 353
6k views

### Modelling with negative interest rates

For a project, I am interested to model the impact of recently negative interest bonds on the portfolio. The literature on modelling negative interest rates is limited, and the only theory I could ...
• 728
2k views

### Question on OIS and fed funds rate

If i am considering the 0-5 year irs spread for the USD market, would it be more accurate to use the fed funds rate or the OIS rate? I believe the OIS rate is calculated based on the fed funds rate, ...
1 vote
3k views

### Calculating portfolio allocation beta with different asset classes?

I'd like to calculate portfolio allocation beta on a portfolio that has different asset classes. The portfolio may be made up of: ...
• 167
1k views

### Tutorial for working with tick data? [closed]

Can you recommend a good tutorial for working with tick data for the purpose of algorithmic trading? Is the data normally stored in a database and only bits are read into memory at a time? Is there ...
• 103
1 vote
301 views

### Normalized data

I am new to this. I trained and tested my data using SVM in Matlab with the autoscale option true => the data would be normalized with unit SD. Let's say the training data have the price around 200. ...
• 61
808 views

### What is a commonly accepted econometric model for volume?

What is the gold standard econometric model for volume? Base model for price changes is the autoregressive (AR) model and GARCH(1,1) for volatility. Is there any survey about econometric models used ...
• 1,018
752 views

### How to model time series of illiquid stocks - 400 observations (transactions) per 8 hours?

How to model time series which are illiquid - 400 observations (transactions) per 8 hours ? Are there models suitable for this situation which incorporate not only size of the transactions but also ...
• 1,018
1k views

### What are some applications of bioinformatics or genetics to generating alpha in U.S. equities?

There are many disciplines that have contributed to how one model's risk and return. Physics introduced Brownian motion and RMT. Machine learning has helped to solve complex portfolio construction ...
• 13.5k
422 views

### Application of ACD models

I have been playing around with autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models and I have a nicely working R based implementation using real high frequency data (trades only data). However, what's ...
• 41
1k views

### What are some research articles on using principle components to generate alpha?

Here's an example by Marco Avellenada from NYU titled "Statistical Arbitrage in the U.S. Equities Market". The idea of this paper involves capturing mean reversion in the residual returns of a ...
• 13.5k
776 views

### Is it possible to demonstrate that one pricing model is better than another?

Take the classic GBM (geometric Brownian motion) model for equities as an example: ds = mu * S * dt + sigma * S * dW. It is the basis for the classic Black-...
• 2,231
11k views

### What are the main differences between discrete and continuous time models when modeling asset price dynamics?

My intuition says that both approaches, discrete time models and continuous time models will be models (i.e. approximations) of reality. Therefore it should be possible to develop useful models in ...
• 486
374 views

### How to use volatility to assess the accuracy of a stock market model?

Background: For a dissertation I have a multi-agent stock market model that I am using to assess different mechanisms for producing particular dynamic regimes. A key point is assessing how closely it ...
847 views

### Discrete time Ho lee model

This is my first question in this forum. I am stuck with my current testing the Ho Lee model. I am having difficulty computing the perturbation factor $\Delta$. The ho lee model should be completely ...
2k views

### From a high frequency point of view, with a price prediction and assuming infinite leverage, how do you determine optimal trade size?

I have read about something like Kelly criterion for long term expectation maximization assuming a fixed starting bankroll. But if one can assume unlimited leverage, and one has a signal for a price ...
• 1,347
1k views

### How to account for jumps in intraday data when calculating beta?

I am calculating betas on intraday trade data at 15-minute intervals. For simplicity sake, let's assume I am modeling $$Y = \beta * X + c$$ where $Y$ is the return of XLF ...
• 1,553
2k views

### How to 'calibrate' simple pricing models for equity index options and equity options?

I am interested in doing some research on plain vanilla equity options and equity index options. I have historical data for these options. I also happen to have market maker 'fair price' (bid and ask) ...
• 1,398
393 views

### How to improve the consistency of explained variance statistics in a linear equity model?

I have an intraday equity returns linear model that, overall, shows good values in terms of $R^2$, p-value and other explained variance statistics. Around 70% of the stocks show consistent R-squared (...
838 views

### Help With Quant Modelling Software [closed]

Im a software developer (freelance) working in investment banking, and I'm looking to improve my CV by gaining a better understanding of the financial quant role and the software used by quants to ...
• 149
368 views

### Modeling interest rates with correlation

I'm trying to model interest rates, and will use the following equation: $dr = \mu r dt + \sigma r dW$ I'm also being told that interest rates are 40% correlated to S&P returns. How can I ...
• 575
600 views

### Algorithms for predicting a couple points in the future

I'm familiar with supervised learning algorithms like regression and neural networks which look at a bunch of input points and learn a function which outputs a value (the value varying depending on ...
• 1,347
8k views

### What distribution to assume for interest rates?

I am writing a paper with a case study in financial maths. I need to model an interest rate $(I_n)_{n\geq 0}$ as a sequence of non-negative i.i.d. random variables. Which distribution would you advise ...
• 2,623
1k views

### What is the forward rate for a Black-Karasinski interest rate model?

I was wondering if anyone could help me with the instantaneous forward rate equation for a Black-Karasinski interest rate model? I was also after the Black-Karasinski Bond Option Pricing Formula.
• 81
387 views

### Are there any valuation models of securities that use hyperbolic discounting?

To quote Wikipedia: In hyperbolic discounting, valuations fall very rapidly for small delay periods, but then fall slowly for longer delay periods. This contrasts with exponential discounting, in ...
• 395
3k views

### How to build a regime-switching model which knows its own limits?

In recent months I've come to the conclusion that there are not only certain regimes in the markets (like bear or bull) but phases where all models fail because we are in uncharted territory. The ...
• 27.5k
616 views

### What to ask for in a good prototyping framework?

Reading up on quantitative methods, model development, and back-testing, one obvious question springs to mind: What should one ask of a prototyping (model testing) framework? I know a lot of people ...
14k views

### How many explanatory variables is too many?

When researching any sort of predictive model, whether using ordinary linear regression or more sophisticated methods such as neural networks or classification and regression trees, there seems to ...
• 13.5k
788 views

### Should I use currency hedged or unhedged returns for a global equity allocation model?

I am building a global tactical equity allocation model. The model will help determine an optimal allocation amongst a number of major developed and emerging stock markets (represented for my purposes ...
• 13.5k
4k views

### Why are exotic options most popular in FX?

I was reading Derman's latest blog post on Vanna Volga pricing, which, according to the linked Wikipedia article, is used mostly for pricing exotic options on foreign exchange (FX). This Willmott ...
• 13.5k
9k views

### Which approach dominates? Mathematical modeling or data mining?

According to my current understanding, there is a clear difference between data mining and mathematical modeling. Data mining methods treat systems (e.g., financial markets) as a "black box". The ...
• 529
549 views

### Do people use unbounded interest rate models, and what alternatives exist?

A simple interest rate model in discrete time is the autoregressive model, $$I_{n+1} = \alpha I_n+w_n$$ where $\alpha\in [0,1)$ and $w_n\geq 0$ are i.i.d. random variables. When working with ruin ...
• 2,623
532 views

### Fixed income modeling

I am currently working on my research paper and trying to explain a two-dimensional variable: volume and instrument of corporate debt financing. Independent variables that I believe must be included ...
• 121
4k views

### Recommendation for a book on CVA/Credit Risk and PD/LGD/EAD modeling?

I need suggestions for some good books on the following topics: Credit Value Adjustment (CVA) / Credit Risk Probability of Default / Loss-Given-Default / Exposure-At-Default modeling Any pointers on ...
• 421
305 views

### Multiple comparison problems

I recently read a blog entry where some statistics were generated for a common technical analysis indicator. Below is the link. My question shows up close to the bottom under the name bill_080, in ...
• 3,864
9k views

### Predicting price movements on a betting exchange

On a betting exchange the price (the odds that an event will happen expressed as a decimal, 1/(percentage chance event occurring) of a runner can experience a great deal of volatility before the event ...
• 181
1k views

### Simple model for option premium (for covered call simulation)?

Given a historical distribution of weekly prices and price changes for a stock, how can I estimate the the option premium for a nearly at-the-money (ATM) option, say with an expiration date 3 months ...
• 840
15k views

### How useful is Markov chain Monte Carlo for quantitative finance?

Naively, it seems that Bayesian modeling, structural models particularly, would be quite useful in finance because of their ability to incorporate market idiosyncrasies and produce accurate ...
• 481