# Questions tagged [modelling]

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8k views

### What is a regime switch?

I've come across the term regime switch in volatilities when reading about the modelling of interest rates but could not find a definition for a regime switch and what a regime is. Can somebody give ...
6k views

### Sources of Machine Readable News

I'm starting on a project that involves correlating and forecasting Forex time series to news releases. I'm aware of sources such as Thomson Reuter's machine readable news and Dow Jone's Newswire ...
554 views

### Why do people always seek finite-variance models for option pricing

For the purpose of getting fatter tails than the Guassian, I have seen people for example use $\alpha$-stable processes to model the stock. But in that case they end up using 'tempered' versions of ...
4k views

### Option Pricing Model Calibration In Practice

I'm curious how an option pricing model like the Heston model is calibrated in practice. Here's how I imagine it happens: Let's say I have access to the most recent option prices on a given stock ...
1k views

### The Basis of Using Technical Indicators as Inputs

In the process of my research I very often come across academic papers regarding modelling and trading strategies that in one way or another incorporate some technical indicators. For example in some ...
1k views

### Is it too important that my residuals be normal? I am Using an ARMA/GARCH model

I am trying to fit an ARMA/GARCH model to a time series. I found that the best candidate is an ARMA(1,0) + GARCH(1,1) with gaussian white noise It has coefficients with p-values near cero and the ...
151 views

### Extensions of CIR

I could need some advice on extensions of the CIR model. The standard CIR reads $dr(t)=\kappa(\theta-r(t))dt + \sigma \sqrt{r(t)} dW(t)$. A possible extension, if we would like the short-rate to ...
151 views

### Are processes with independent increments (which are not Lévy) used in finance?

From Jacod and Shiryaev's Limit Theorems for Stochastic Processes, we get the following definitions. Definitions: A process with independent increments (abbreviated PII) $X = (X_t)_{t \geq 0}$ on a ...
8k views

### Null and Alternative hypothesis for multiple linear regression

I have 1 dependent variable and 3 independent variables. I run multiple regression, and find that the p value for one of the independent variables is higher than 0.05 (95% is my confidence level). I ...
669 views

### CIR model and calibration

I am new to quantitative finance. We know that in the CIR model the short rate can't go negative. My question then concerns calibration of CIR to a ZCB yield curve. Is it (and why?) possible to ...
669 views

### GARCH modelling and forecasting

I have a few questions regarding GARCH modelling and forecasting and it would be great if someone could help me. I am modelling the log return of oil spot prices using various GARCH models: GARCH, ...
149 views

### Risk neutral modelling of a stock

Suppose a stock $S$ follows $$dS(t) = \alpha(t)S(t)dt + \sigma(t)S(t)dW(t),$$ where $W(t)$ is a Brownian motion under $P$. Also suppose there is a short rate process $r(t)$. My question would be is ...
77 views

### Which methods are there to determine the price of futures contracts?

Which method apart from the cost of carry model exists, and which works best in real life? How does the market expectations impact on the futures price?
83 views

### EGARCH formulation

I am a bit confused about the formulation of the EGARCH(1,1) model. First, we have the error term: $\epsilon_t=\sigma_t*\zeta_t$, where $\zeta_t$ is white noise. Now the EGARCH(1,1) should be:  log(...
55 views

### Forecasting default rates using a macroeconomic model

I am trying to forecast corporate default rates using macroeconomic data. I have a few explanatory variables (all the variables are explained in figure 2), which range from 2000 to 2017. On this ...
3k views

### Models for simulating FX movements

My goal is to develop a model to simulate long term FX movements. (I am not sure if long term makes any difference, but if it does I am more interested in long term fx movements) These Monte Carlo ...
36 views

### Passage from dates ranges to real numbers in modelling : which market practice?

Let's say I model a 6M forward Libor rate as a process $(L^1_t)_t$ that's a diffusion, with in view a Monte-Carlo (MC) pricing of some product. At some point I will have real life dates $T_i$'s that I ...
99 views

### Modeling independent variables that have an asymmetric impact on the dependent variable

I'm trying to regress a dependent variable on an independent variable that has an asymmetric impact. E.g., the dependent variable is much more responsive to an increase in the independent variable ...
995 views

### How to backtest Value at Risk Models using Conditional and Unconditional tests?

I am trying to carry out backtesting on a number of Value at Risk figures i obtained using var/covar, historical, and monte carlo simulation. The two methods im using are the Kupiec test (...
423 views

### LIBOR 3M and 1M from Vasicek model

I would like to discuss my approach toward modelling of interest rates with respect to its downsides and advantages. My problem is to forecast daily LIBOR 3M and LIBOR 1M over a particular time ...
44 views

### goodness of fit metric

I am trying to approximate the returns of asset A by means of a linear combination of other assets A'=aB0+bB1+c*B2.... I have this quite figured out but I'm not sure what a good metric for goodness ...
156 views

### Local volatility parametrization using the spot

Is it possible to estimate the local volatility using the spot price S at time t instead of the strike price K and the expiry date T ? Any help would be appreciated.