Questions tagged [models]

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2answers
868 views

Hedge backtesting: ex-ante Beta vs observed Beta (is this even possible?)

A global equity portfolio has for objective to outperform a benchmark (MSCI World). I hedge the sensitivity of the portfolio to MSCI World (the beta) so that only the alpha remains unhedged. The ex-...
2
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1answer
155 views

Put-call parity on SPY

I'm currently trying to model the IV curve for calls and puts on SPY using the Black-Scholes model with dividends. I'm able to calibrate the risk-free rate and dividends so that both ATM IVs match, ...
7
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2answers
367 views

Risk Model Validation

I have such a general question regarding risk model validation. Which tools are most often used for validation and how does the process work? Could you recommend any books that focus on this topic?
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1answer
51 views

Approach for studying price gaps in US equities

A price gap is defined as any day when the high / low / close price bar for that day does not overlap the previous day’s high / low / close price bar. I am interested in studying stock price gaps ...
1
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1answer
188 views

Proper Data Partitioning For Building a Forecasting Model

Goal: A team and I are looking to build a model that performs a predictive action for the state of the market on day T + n, using the data at hand on day ...
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1answer
65 views

Why are implied parameters preferred over expectations of future implied parameters?

For example, when we price options on assets under the Heston model, we often compute the volatility of the volatility of the price of those assets implied by the market at time $t=0$ using the market ...
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1answer
93 views

Geometric brownian motion small timesteps high volatility

I'm trying to generate some sample geometric brownian motion paths for an asset which is traded 24/7 without interruption and is highly volatile (upwards to 150% implied volatility on options markets)....
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0answers
34 views

Algortihm for distributing volume for 1min candle

Context: I have historical 1min prices for stocks, including premarket. However, when importing real-time data, the standard practice in the financial data industry is to give only OHLC (open, high, ...
26
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5answers
13k views

Is there a standard model for market impact?

Is there a standard model for market impact? I am interested in the case of high-volume equities sold in the US, during market hours, but would be interested in any pointers.
3
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1answer
92 views

Non-constant Volatility of the Volatility in Stochastic Volatility Models

In pricing financial derivatives, we often first assume that the volatility of the stock price is constant. $$\mathrm{d}S(t) = \alpha S(t) \mathrm{d}t + \sigma S(t) \mathrm{d}W(t)\text{.}$$ The ...
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0answers
11 views

Calculate core deposit bucket percentages

I need to forecast core deposits in a commercial bank. One technique that I saw consists in dividing the amounts in buckets and applying a percentage to each bucket to obtain the core deposit. For ...
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2answers
228 views

Is it a problem that there are so few stocks in the generalized Black Scholes market? [duplicate]

In the standard Black Scholes market there is only one stock. In the generealized market there can be a finite amount, but my impression is that there are few stocks in the market. The real world ...
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1answer
38 views

Margin Requirement model for CCP and non-central cleared OTC derivatives

What the models for computing margin requirement for central counterparty (CCP) and non-central cleared OTC derivatives.
7
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1answer
245 views

Bermudan Swaptions - Payer vs. Receiver (LGM)

There is abundant literature discussing the pricing of Bermudan swaptions and the relevance of single-factor Markov-functional models (e.g. LGM) versus multi-factor market models (e.g. LMM). From a ...
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0answers
23 views

How to decide which sentiment analyzer is the better model?

Assume one has trained different sentiment analysis models that assigns sentiment scores to the financial news or documents. How would one should approach testing the different models and decide which ...
1
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0answers
43 views

Model Documentation role [closed]

first timer here,I received an 'inmail' on linkedin from a recruiter regarding a role in model documentation team as part of the quantitative modeling and analytics department of a 'global bank'. The ...
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0answers
51 views

Career Advice Model Documentation Role (What is it exactly? and transition to wider quant role in future, can't find info online) [duplicate]

first timer here,I received an 'inmail' on linkedin from a recruiter regarding a role in model documentation team as part of the quantitative modeling and analytics department of a 'global bank'. The ...
0
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1answer
44 views

References on cashflow modelling for private equity

I would like to build a model to predict capital calls and distributions of a private equity fund. The first question is: does any of you can address me towards the state of art for it? also machine ...
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0answers
81 views

Which interest rate model is the most popular

Hey on wikpedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short-rate_model) there are quite a few short rate models listed, but which models are the most commonly used now? Because such simple models as Vasicek ...
4
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2answers
225 views

what does the cover page of Guyon and Labordere's Nonlinear Option Pricing represent?

It could be a bit offtopic, but I don't see the link between the contents of the book and the cover page. Thanks
1
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0answers
46 views

Do we model stock prices using non-Markovian processes in continuous setting?

In a continuous setting, is it common to model stock prices using non-Markovian processes ? If so, do you have some examples of models ? Or is Markovianity something "embedded" in the ...
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0answers
60 views

Quantitative Model classification

In the world of Quantitative model risk management, can you please tell me what is Model 1 type, ...
0
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1answer
44 views

Can I dynamically change hyper-parameters of a model?

Question Can I apply different hyper-parameters for different training sets? I can see the point of using the shared parameters but I cannot see the point of using shared hyper-parameters. The ...
2
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2answers
236 views

Loss given default for Agency MBS

The question is regarding the LGD of Agency MBS. Although Agencies never defaulted, the Basel framework requires to calculate the Agency MBS LGD for capital requirement. The closest benchmark I can ...
1
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1answer
177 views

Stochastic volatility Levy models

Hey I have some questions about stochastic volatility for Levy processes. If I understand correctly, if we change the time in Levy's process by CIR process, the newly received process is not Levy's ...
33
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3answers
7k views

How do we use option price models (like Black-Scholes Model) to make money in practice?

In quantitative finance, we know we have a lot of option price models such as geometric Brownian motion model (Black-Scholes models), stochastic volatility model (Heston), jump diffusion models and so ...
4
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4answers
223 views

Does the non-causal nature of quant models limit their applicability?

I understand that to describe financial data, we build stochastic models and calibrate their parameters to past data. When coming up with new algorithms, we rely on rigorous backtesting to convince ...
2
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1answer
179 views

Is it always better to use the entire distribution of a financial returns series, not just $\mu$ and $\sigma$?

In finance models that use historical returns for inputs, including option pricing models, forecasting and portfolio optimization, only the statistical moments of the returns distribution, $\mu$ and $\...
1
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1answer
79 views

modelling FX with crosses: USD conversion on entry and exit, or just exit?

I am backtesting a model that trades currency crosses (i.e. EurGbp) at a fixed $1 mln per trade and was curious if I need to a) account for my currency exposure to GBP on both ends of the trade or b) ...
3
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0answers
117 views

Linear programming optimization problems in finance

I'd like to know what are, if any, the applications of linear/non linear programming optimization techniques for financial markets. I'm a business major, and I want to find an argument for my thesis ...
1
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1answer
66 views

Loan level model to understand drivers of mortgage prepayments

I am following up from my question here. As described there, I'm trying to assess the drivers of CPRs for a type of MBS. However, I want to understand, how a loan-level model of such a relationship ...
1
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1answer
75 views

How to set up data for understanding drivers of prepayments

I would like to understand the drivers of prepayment of a certain sector of MBS. I have some explanatory variables that I think would explain the actual CPR's and want to model the prepayments through ...
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0answers
112 views

Is there a framework to study quantitative model robustness/uncertainty?

Can you point me to any resources about a possible framework to analyse and possibly quantify model uncertainty and -robustness associated with quantitative investment models? As an example, there ...
1
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1answer
188 views

Interpretation of parameters in the CGMY model

I would like to understand role of parameters $C,G,M,Y$ in CGMY model, especially $G$ and $M$. The Lévy measure is $$\nu(x)=C\frac{e^{-Mx}}{x^{1+Y}}1_{x>0}+C\frac{e^{-G|x|}}{|x|^{1+Y}}1_{x<0} $$...
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0answers
108 views

Inter-temporal structural stability of stock markets

For my bachelor thesis I am trying to determine structural stability of some stock market in the following way: Identify an ARMA model for the whole sample Split the sample in two parts, and estimate ...
4
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1answer
429 views

What does it mean that model can reflect the ”volatility smile”

I know that implied volatility is the value for which the Black Scholes model returns the correct option price. I also know that if we plot the volatility on the strike price chart, we will see "...
1
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1answer
103 views

Overview of frequentist, likelihood and Bayesian approaches to finance problems

In quantitative finance tasks (asset pricing, portfolio optimization, option pricing, volatility forecasting, etc), there are frequentist, likelihoodist and Bayesian approaches or interpretations to ...
0
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1answer
104 views

Single Model Accuracy Estimation

I'm working on a model to estimate CDS prices, and want to backtest it against a historical timeseries. What are some error/goodness of fit measures that I can use for this purpose outside of RMSE? I'...
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2answers
70 views

I just got Matlab, what are some options that I should model in a jump diffusion

Don't worry I understand mathematics: ito's calc, martingales, etc. I am just curious what options I should test, and from what indices. Is there stuff I can test from the 2008 crash to measure their ...
2
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0answers
217 views

Market Making Formulation

I'm developing a deep reinforcement learning based approach to market-making. In order to implement this, I need to define the appropriate actions and define environmental steps. While doing some ...
1
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0answers
31 views

What's the industry standard/typical way to model contango or futures spreads?

If you want to include futures spread either as a response or predictor, I would imagine you also need to include time to expiration somewhere in your model. What is the industry standard way to ...
27
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6answers
4k views

Model Validation Criteria

Let's say I have a brand new fancy model on some asset class (calibration porcedure included over a set of vanilla options) in which I truly believe I made a step forward comparing to existing ...
13
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3answers
1k views

Validating a Credit Scoring Model without Data

Fellow Quants, Suppose you have a credit scoring model that is developed without the aid of statistics, because (unfortunately) there is no historical default/loss data in your portfolio. The ...
6
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1answer
373 views

Architecture of a global pricing library with immutable payoffs

By global pricing library I mean a library handling equity, rate etc, hybrid products having several models (BS, LV, SV, LSV) having several numerical methods (analytic formula, MC, PDE FD/FE) I ...
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0answers
91 views

Does anyone have codes that would solve the multi-period Kyle model?

Whenever I begin working on something new, I like to find existing examples of how things are done so that I can double check at least the basics before moving on to more complicated problems. I am ...
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0answers
56 views

Why are cashflows "modelled backwards in time"?

A am currently reading a manual on how to use some actuarial modelling software to project the expected liability payments made under an annuity contract. In this guide, the following statement is ...
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0answers
47 views

Modelling considerations for a jump model

The Problem: Suppose I have a simple jump model for an asset price $$ dS = S(t-)[\mu dt + YdN(t)] $$ where $N(t)$ is a Poisson process and $Y_i$ are the jump sizes (assume independece of $N(t)$ and ...
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0answers
66 views

Anyone got references where we can find examples of codes for agent-based simulations of financial markets?

I'm looking for references with codes for trying out simple agent-based simulations for modeling financial markets. I mostly worked with MATLAB and R, but I know a bit of python and I am learning C++ ...
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2answers
78 views

Closing prices are predicted very well but returns are predicted poorly

I'm learning some time series analysis and forecasting techniques, I've tried to predict stock prices for Netflix but I'm very confused. At first I've tried Auto ARIMA which gave me a straight line, ...
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2answers
86 views

Is it possible to build a computer model to simulate a market to prove whether efficient theory is true or not?

I know this may sound stupid. But I had this idea and wanted to try it out for a college project. Has this been done before? If and what's wrong with this idea?