Questions tagged [monte-carlo]

Monte Carlo simulation methods are a broad class of computational algorithms that rely on repeated random sampling to obtain numerical results.

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1answer
730 views

How are Brownian Bridges used in derivatives pricing in practice?

A similar question has already been asked in the past, unfortunately the 2nd question of the OP was never really addressed. Most references found on internet on Brownian Bridge and Monte-Carlo ...
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1answer
59 views

Given a particular Monte-Carlo simulation, how will a different correlated value change

I am currently working on a project at an investment bank regarding new accounting regulations on financial instruments. The task at hand it to understand the connection between a large array of ...
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119 views

Pricing of Swaption by Proxy and Monte Carlo

here's the problem. Suppose you want to compute the price of a Call option on a Swap contract. Let $T$ and $T+S$ the times (in year fraction) where the Swap lives and suppose that the fluxes of the ...
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1answer
391 views

Log-moneyness definition [closed]

Define the time-0 log-moneyness of a call on stock $S$ with strike $K$ and expiry $T$ to be: $$\log(S(0)\exp(rT)/K)$$ What does it mean for the strikes K to be at-the-log-moneyness?? I guessed this ...
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86 views

Monte Carlo convergence sample size

I'm studying Monte Carlo analysis but I find very counter-intuitive the computation of the minimum sample size in order to reach a certain level of precision. As stated in ...
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0answers
1k views

Correlated assets in Monte Carlo simulation

I'm trying to simulate $N$ correlated assets in Excel in order to estimate a basket option price. For 2 assets, I correlated the two random variables $X_1$ and $X_2$ and then simulate the ...
2
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1answer
465 views

Calibration by monte carlo, should I fix my seed?

I am calibrating a 3-parameter stochastic model to options market data via Monte Carlo simulation. Let the parameter set be denoted by $\bar{\theta}$. (this is not a simple Black-Scholes type model, ...
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1answer
450 views

quantstrat for backtesting vs. writing one's own code in R

I have invested a few years in learning R and have developed a number of Monte Carlo backtesting scripts. My question is this: In general, for a person with some experience writing R code who is ...
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2answers
430 views

CIR discretization Milstein scheme

The CIR model for spot rate $r_t$ is: $$dr_t=(\eta-\gamma r_t)dt+\sqrt{\alpha r_t} dW_t$$ where $\eta, \gamma, \alpha$ are constants. How to express this SDE in discrete form using Milstein scheme? ...
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1answer
58 views

Quantile with periodic investing

Short Version Can I get a quantile of such an expression? \begin{equation} \sum_{k=1}^{n} A_k\exp(\mathcal{N}(t_k\mu-\sigma\sqrt{t_k}/2,\sigma))) \end{equation} I know I can do it for one part of ...
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2answers
299 views

Modeling stock performance in excel

I am trying to model the ending value of a stock after a certain number of years, I need it for a bigger project but I made this sample sheet to get help. This sheet is assuming that annual returns ...
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2answers
139 views

Optimal number of iterations for quasi-Monte Carlo

I'm quoting from Peter Jäckel's book "Monte Carlo Methods in Finance", page 96: ...For low-discrepancy numbers, the situation is different. Sobol numbers and other number generators based on ...
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1answer
488 views

Should I adjust historical data for dividends when estimating drift?

I'm building a Geometric Brownian Motion model which incorporates future dividends which vary over time. Since these should reduce stock price when paid, I can incorporate that into the model, however,...
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1answer
64 views

Day counts and time increment in Monte Carlo

Suppose the evolution of the stock price is given by Geometric Brownian Motion. Futher I assume that the risk free rate process is given by CIR model. In both models there is a time increment dt. To ...
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1answer
304 views

CMS convexity adjustment in a range accrual Monte Carlo

I'm trying to price a CMS indexed range accrual using Monte Carlo simulations. Let's say i have n trajectories of ZC rates using G2++ model under risk neutral measure. My question is how do i take ...
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105 views

Monte Carlo volatily

I was wondering if we could do a forecast on volatility using monte carlo on an underlying asset. For example EUR/USD : Simulating a lot of possible paths on 1 year then calculate the volatilty for ...
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0answers
39 views

Model for target zone exchange rates

I just found a stochastic model for target zone exchange rates $x_{t+1}=x_t+k+r(x_t-y)+ \tilde{\epsilon}$ where k is a drift term so equal $r-r_f$ r is lean againt the wind coefficient that ...
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1answer
779 views

Pathwise Derivative To Estimate Delta

I am trying to estimate delta using the pathwise derivative method (Broadie and Glasserman (1996)) and I stuck on this part: Here is the other notation defined: Here is my C++ code I have written so ...
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1answer
536 views

Basket Option pricing of two stocks

I am trying to use Monte Carlo simulation to price arithmetic basket option consisting of two stocks. There seems to be something wrong in my implementation. According to the inputs ...
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1answer
1k views

Monte carlo simulation for arithmetic average price asian option [closed]

I am trying to construct a method in python that evaluates the value of an Arithmetic Asian Option using standard Monte Carlo simulation (without control variates). However, I am not getting the ...
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1answer
201 views

How to price the American style Asian option with recent N day average

How to price the American style Asian option with recent N day average, for example, we exercise at t day, then the payment is $$...
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3answers
226 views

VaR estimate with Monte Carlo simlation

i want to verify the theoretical VaR 99% for the following Random Variable: \begin{align*} X=\epsilon + \nu, \end{align*} $\epsilon \sim \mathcal{N}(0,1)$, \begin{align*} \nu= \begin{cases}\begin{...
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3answers
196 views

Non-convergence in Monte Carlo

Trying to implement some monte carlo simulation for the first time. For the sabr model (http://www.javaquant.net/papers/managing_smile_risk.pdf), would this work? Here, a = volatility of volatility, ...
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1answer
213 views

Using crude Monte Carlo

Background Information: The crude Monte Carlo algorithm for the arithmetic Asian call option is $$Y = e^{-rT}(\overline{S}_A - K)^{+}$$ and the control is $$C e^{-rT}(\overline{S}_G - K)^{+}$$ The ...
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1answer
3k views

Monte Carlo European Option Pricing

I've written code below that simulates GBM paths for determining the price of a given European call option and put option. The stock is priced at 150 USD, strike price at 155 USD, risk-free rate was ...
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0answers
235 views

Euler discretization of SDE, combined with antithetic sampling

let's say we have a GBM $dS_t = r S_t dt + \sigma S_t dW_t$, where $W_t$ is standard Brownian motion, and we have an European option $C$ with payoff $f(S_T)$. I want to use an Euler discretization ...
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1answer
255 views

Euler discretisation error for stochastic volatility model

Given the following model$$dS_t=S_t(\mu dt+\sigma(t,S_t)dW_t)$$ Using Monte Carlo Pricing method, I want to determine the price of the option. However I have been encountered the following problems: ...
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1answer
179 views

Euler discretization

I have been told that the Euler discretisation is exact for the GBM process.Is it true and how can I proof this? This would mean, for a GBM process, if I am increasing my discretisation step, the ...
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1answer
161 views

A forward Monte Carlo method for American Options Pricing

I am trying to implement the forward Monte Carlo algorithm from the paper "A Forward Monte Carlo Method for American Options Pricing" by Daniel Wei-Chung Miao and Yung-Hsin Lee. I am a little bit ...
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234 views

Is using a Monte Carlo simulation sufficient for predicting probabilities that a stock will hit a certain price by a certain date?

Forgive my ignorance about my question. I understand a Monte Carlo simulation to basically be n times that the truth is checked in some historic data set. For stock ...
3
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1answer
256 views

Basic practical question about Delta hedging

I am trying to understand a simple thing about Delta hedging in the Black-Scholes world. I know I'm doing something blatantly wrong, I just can't see it now. Let's say I write a call option and sell ...
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1answer
151 views

Use random-shift Halton sequence to obtain 40 independent estimates for the price of a European call

Background Information: Random-shift Halton sequence: Consider the first six Halton vectors in dimension $2$, using base $2$ and $3$: $$\begin{bmatrix} 1/2\\ 1/3 \end{bmatrix}, \begin{bmatrix} 1/4\\ ...
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1answer
79 views

Doing MC simulation using two different methods, are they the same?

I have learnt two versions of Monte Carlo simulations to do stock price, and can someone help check if I am thinking this right. The first one is the most common one: $\frac{\Delta S_t}{St}-1 = \mu ...
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0answers
156 views

Pricing Asian option at discrete times

I hope you can help me again regarding pricing an arithmetic Asian option. Asumme we have a time grid $(0=t_0,t_1,t_2=T)$ and we buy an Asian option at time 0 and the maturity is at T. Now we would ...
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269 views

Are there any papers measure the accuracy of various option pricing models against real market price?

There are many stochastic volatility option models not only require significant more computation/simulation comparing to the standard BSM model but also introdue large source of possible problems at ...
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1k views

Jamshidian's trick for Swaptions

Following Brigo$^1$ p.77, we can decompose the price of a swaption as a sum of Zero-Coupon bond options (Jamshidian's Trick). To do so, the authors suggest to find $r^*$ the value of the spot rate at ...
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1answer
158 views

Black's model and Monte Carlo

It is well know that one uses the Black 76 model to price commodity derivatives. I would however like to perform a Monte Carlo simulation that ties back to this number. How would one go about this ...
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1answer
77 views

Asset Liability Management, probabilty of realising the paths in a Monte Carlo simulation

An ALM study produces several future real world interest paths, lets say the set consists of 5000 of such paths. What is the chance that one such path becomes reality? If in 50% of the paths the ...
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1answer
98 views

Simulating a stock price with Monte Carlo - Why my solution isn't equivalent to the author's

I am self-studying and I am working on the following problem: My solution is different and I'm arriving at a different answer: The parameters of the lognormal random variable $S_t/S_0$ are: $$m = \...
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1answer
277 views

Time Step Size for Heston Model for Different Option Maturity

Suppose we are to price with Monte Carlo method two options differing only in the maturity time, with the same, say, call option payoff, or Asian option payoff with a fixed averaging window, with the ...
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1answer
241 views

In a Monte Carlo simulation, will a delta hedge control variate necessarily reduce the standard error more than an antithetic variate?

I have four Monte Carlo simulations and will list them in order of highest standard error to lowest. Plain MC MC with delta hedge control variate MC with antithetic variate MC with antithetic and ...
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3answers
3k views

How to perform Monte-Carlo simulations to price Asian options?

If I wish to price a fixed-strike Asian Call option via Monte-Carlo (This has no early-exercise), are my following steps correct?: 1) Simulate random asset prices. (Milstein) $\ d S(t) = \ rS(t)dt + ...
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2answers
669 views

Least Square Monte Carlo - american Call Option

An American Call Option on an non dividend paying stock has the same value as a european one. I tired to compare the results given by the LSM with the results given by the B&S formular. It seems ...
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2answers
736 views

Monte Carlo method vs PDE in option pricing

Good evening everyone, I would like to ask a question about Monte Carlo and PDE Pricing. For an American option, which one should we use, Monte Carlo method or PDE method? The same question for an ...
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0answers
219 views

Monte Carlo simulation implementation

This question relates to credit portfolio analysis. I was asked by my teacher the following question : Why would a bank use MC simulation in the implementation of the covariance model (a bottom-up ...
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1answer
75 views

Handling option expiration during Monte Carlo simulation

I have equity options in my portfolio that can expire during a VaR calculation (with Monte Carlo). For example the time to maturity of my option is T days but I simulate for T+n days (n > 0). What ...
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1answer
43 views

Simulating Co-Integrated Assets

I know how to simulate correlated returns, but I do not know how to simulate Co-Integrated assets. I would like to simulate a co-integrated time series where the Beta Co-Efficient is not constant, but ...
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3answers
835 views

Cointegration pair trading - how to test a trading rule using Monte Carlo?

I am doing a research exercise where I have two price series $X_t, Y_t$ which I regress against each other and test for cointegration. Once I confirm that they are cointegrated (using CADF or ...
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1answer
3k views

How to generate simulated stock price from historical data using R?

I have created a strategy specifically for a particular stock which I backtested with its historical data. Now I want to forward test it with simulated stock price generated using Monte Carlo. I have ...
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1answer
114 views

Mean-Var optimisation of Monte Carlo simulated model

I have a problem which involves optimisation of a portfolio containing one stock and multiple call options written on it, with the same maturity and different strikes. In order to use optimisation ...