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Questions tagged [monte-carlo]

Monte Carlo simulation methods are a broad class of computational algorithms that rely on repeated random sampling to obtain numerical results.

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184 views

Black's model and Monte Carlo

It is well know that one uses the Black 76 model to price commodity derivatives. I would however like to perform a Monte Carlo simulation that ties back to this number. How would one go about this ...
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Asset Liability Management, probabilty of realising the paths in a Monte Carlo simulation

An ALM study produces several future real world interest paths, lets say the set consists of 5000 of such paths. What is the chance that one such path becomes reality? If in 50% of the paths the ...
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102 views

Simulating a stock price with Monte Carlo - Why my solution isn't equivalent to the author's

I am self-studying and I am working on the following problem: My solution is different and I'm arriving at a different answer: The parameters of the lognormal random variable $S_t/S_0$ are: $$m = \...
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1answer
292 views

Time Step Size for Heston Model for Different Option Maturity

Suppose we are to price with Monte Carlo method two options differing only in the maturity time, with the same, say, call option payoff, or Asian option payoff with a fixed averaging window, with the ...
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1answer
251 views

In a Monte Carlo simulation, will a delta hedge control variate necessarily reduce the standard error more than an antithetic variate?

I have four Monte Carlo simulations and will list them in order of highest standard error to lowest. Plain MC MC with delta hedge control variate MC with antithetic variate MC with antithetic and ...
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How to perform Monte-Carlo simulations to price Asian options?

If I wish to price a fixed-strike Asian Call option via Monte-Carlo (This has no early-exercise), are my following steps correct?: 1) Simulate random asset prices. (Milstein) $\ d S(t) = \ rS(t)dt + ...
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2answers
711 views

Least Square Monte Carlo - american Call Option

An American Call Option on an non dividend paying stock has the same value as a european one. I tired to compare the results given by the LSM with the results given by the B&S formular. It seems ...
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3answers
831 views

Monte Carlo method vs PDE in option pricing

Good evening everyone, I would like to ask a question about Monte Carlo and PDE Pricing. For an American option, which one should we use, Monte Carlo method or PDE method? The same question for an ...
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0answers
227 views

Monte Carlo simulation implementation

This question relates to credit portfolio analysis. I was asked by my teacher the following question : Why would a bank use MC simulation in the implementation of the covariance model (a bottom-up ...
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1answer
75 views

Handling option expiration during Monte Carlo simulation

I have equity options in my portfolio that can expire during a VaR calculation (with Monte Carlo). For example the time to maturity of my option is T days but I simulate for T+n days (n > 0). What ...
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1answer
43 views

Simulating Co-Integrated Assets

I know how to simulate correlated returns, but I do not know how to simulate Co-Integrated assets. I would like to simulate a co-integrated time series where the Beta Co-Efficient is not constant, but ...
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3answers
863 views

Cointegration pair trading - how to test a trading rule using Monte Carlo?

I am doing a research exercise where I have two price series $X_t, Y_t$ which I regress against each other and test for cointegration. Once I confirm that they are cointegrated (using CADF or ...
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1answer
3k views

How to generate simulated stock price from historical data using R?

I have created a strategy specifically for a particular stock which I backtested with its historical data. Now I want to forward test it with simulated stock price generated using Monte Carlo. I have ...
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1answer
126 views

Mean-Var optimisation of Monte Carlo simulated model

I have a problem which involves optimisation of a portfolio containing one stock and multiple call options written on it, with the same maturity and different strikes. In order to use optimisation ...
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2answers
323 views

Pricing Exotics: Monte-Carlo is too slow?

I want to price exotic options under the exponential VG model and Merton's model to compare both models. To price exotics under Merton's model, I have written the code below. The output is the price ...
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1answer
6k views

How to simulate a jump-diffusion process?

I would like to price Asian and Digital options under Merton's jump-diffusion model. To that end, I will have to simulate from a jump diffusion process. In general, the stock price process is given ...
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4answers
452 views

Web-based Backtesting for Options Traders [duplicate]

Is there a good web-based option for back-testing of equity options trading strategies.
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3k views

rate of convergence for Monte Carlo

I would like to show explicitly the rate of convergence of Monte Carlo method to be $O(\sqrt{n})$, where $n$ is the number of simulation paths. Assume I want to do that with a price of a European call ...
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1answer
126 views

Can someone check this boundary condition for me?

At the moment I'm comparing plots between the implicit numerical Black-Scholes PDE and the Monte-Carlo Method for the Black-Scholes equation. However, for the particular boundary condition I'm using I'...
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2answers
130 views

FTAP wih Heston Model

The Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing (FTAP) is invoked when we say the time $0$ price of a European option with payoff $g$ is $e^{-rT}E_Q(g(S_T))$, with the hypothesis that $e^{-rt}S_t$ is a $Q$-...
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1answer
205 views

Is Poisson Disk Sampling an alternative to crude Monte Carlo and QMC?

I recently stumbled over Poisson Disk Sampling (here and the meditative version). I wonder if it is an alternative to crude or quasi Monte Carlo for very high dimensional integrals. It is not ...
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2answers
808 views

Pricing variance swaps using Monte Carlo

For pricing variance swaps there is the well-known formula as sum of OTM options weighted by the inverse of the squared strike (see e.g. here). Would it also be valid to derive the local-volatility ...
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2answers
167 views

Monte Carlo Accuracy - Antithetic Variate Method

I'm self studying for an actuarial exam and I am curious about a property of the antithetic variate method for increasing the Monte Carlo price accuracy (i.e. For every random draw of $z$, also ...
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2answers
664 views

Black scholes model for down and out European call option using Monte Carlo

I tried to implement Matlab program computing the price of the European down and out call option using Monte Carlo and Euler discretization scheme. I have initial price S0=50, strike K=50, barrier ...
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1answer
60 views

Expected number of days inside a corridor

Is there a simple (ish) approximation for the expected number of steps a random walk is within a set of bounds over a given time period? - in particular if i presume log normal and constant vol. If i ...
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2answers
106 views

Finding optimal drift, importance sampling, least square monte carlo

I am working with Importance sampling for Least Squared monte carlo and have now problems understanding the implementation of the Robbins-Monro algorithm for finding the optimal drift for finding ...
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1answer
361 views

Monte Carlo and PDE results are different for a Call Option!

Okay so this might be a fairly trivial question but I'm having an issue with valuing a call option using both a Monte Carlo method and a PDE method. When I started I first used the parameters: Spot =...
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2answers
750 views

Importance Sampling for pricing options with longstaff and schwartz

I have been asking this similar question before. However, I really want to be concrete and get and concrete explanation. I have been reading the paper by Moreni and try to implement the same ...
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0answers
93 views

Monte Carlo approach to RAN bonds in Quantlib or suggestions

This is a problem from Schlogl's book in the chapter on the HJM model: Price option of the RAN instrument with 3 month coupons and maturity 3 years using Monte Carlo(Exercise 4 Range Accrual Note). ...
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1answer
846 views

Choice of time increment in Monte Carlo/ Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) stock price prediction

I am playing around with writing a daily stock price prediction algo in Python using a Monte Carlo/GBM methodology. I know there are many other questions on here about this topic (here, and here), but ...
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1answer
225 views

Deep ITM Call Implied Vol via Monte Carlo

Let's say I've computed the price of a call using Monte Carlo with $S_0 = 100$ and $K = 80$, using $T = 0.1$ and $r = 0$ to be $\$20.00095$. This price estimate comes with a $95\%$ confidence ...
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1answer
490 views

Importance Sampling for Least Square Monte Carlo [duplicate]

I am currently trying to implement and model an Importance Sampling estimator for Longstaff and Schwartz algorithm for pricing American put options. It is used such that more paths are in-the-money ...
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2answers
462 views

Conditional probability of geometric brownian motion

I created paths using GBM to implement The stochastic mesh method. But the method requires the conditional distribution, given some S(t) the probability of S(t+1). I've searched and can't find this ...
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1answer
275 views

Is This A Viable Alternative Options Pricing Method?

i'm currently a high school student who hasn't gone past Algebra II, and thus I have minimal Calculus knowledge. I know the basics of Integration and Derivation (drop the coefficient, raise to the ...
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2answers
594 views

Interpret simulation results ($P$ and $Q$ measures)

I am struggling in interpreting results of my simulations. I use Monte Carlo algorithm to simulate stock paths and calculate option price. The notation: $r$ is a risk free interest rate, $T$ is time ...
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0answers
421 views

Pricing back swaptions corresponding to underlying swaps of Bermudan Swaption in calibrated LMM

I do not know to which swaption volatility matrix I have to calibrate the LMM in order to price back correctly the swaptions corresponding to the underlying swaps of a Bermudan Swaption. My problem: ...
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1answer
938 views

how to derive critical values for augmented Dickey–Fuller test (ADF) using Monte Carlo method?

Can anybody explain in simple terms how the critical value of the ADF test can be derived using Monte Carlo simulation?
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355 views

Is this formula correct to estimate a knock out option price using monte-carlo?

I have a knock-out option with barrier $L>0$ and strike $K$ that pays at maturity $(S-K)_+$. So, positive payoff occurs only in case the price stays below the barrier over life of the option. I am ...
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1answer
340 views

Pricing a log-contract using Monte Carlo

Having a payoff of log-contract defined as $$ \Pi_T = \ln \left(\frac{S_T}{S_0} \right) $$ How would you express the MC-estimator for the price of this contract? The stock price dynamics here is ...
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72 views

Generating process for stock price paths in this paper?

I am reading Longstaff and Schwartz Valuing Aerican Options by Simulation because monte carlo simulations, especially their use in option pricing, is interesting to me. However, I am having some ...
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2answers
2k views

Why do we need correlated random variables in a Monte Carlo simulation?

Question: I don't understand why a Monte Carlo simulation needs correlated random variables. Isn't each simulation thread independent? Background: Specifically, I'm referring to the below example on ...
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137 views

Stochastic Simulation vs percentile-to-percentile map

I was wondering why someone would go to the trouble to generate random variables in scenarios that are not path dependent. Let me provide a simple (although somewhat contrived) example. Lets say that ...
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2answers
326 views

Convergence of the distribution of 0.05 quantiles through Monte-Carlo simulation

I am trying to get admitted to a masters in quantitative finance (I come from a computer science background), so next week I will have 3h to solve an exam in statistical computing using my favourite ...
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1answer
118 views

Andersen Broadie American/Bermudan Put

I'm trying to implement Andersen and Broadie's dual method for an upper bound (here) of a regular American Put. I understand the process to compute it, but I have a conceptual issue : everything ...
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2answers
735 views

Accuracy Rebonato Swaption Approximation Formula among Different Strikes

Can somebody explain me if the Rebonato swaption volatility approximation formula is accurate for only ATM strikes, and if yes why? Can it also be used for ITM and OTM strikes? My foundings: Let $0 &...
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1answer
267 views

American option - Upper bound

I have computed a lower bound for an american option through longstaff and schwartz's algorithm. Now I have to compute the upper bound as andersen and broadie does in their article linked. Can anybody ...
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2answers
175 views

Monte Carlo Methods for Pricing Derivatives

can someone please suggest a good book on Monte Carlo Simulation for Pricing Derivatives? Don't want a book which is too complicated like a PhD level. A Masters level should be good. Thanks a lot in ...
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3answers
180 views

Distribution of pay-off of an exotic option

Can any assumptions be made about the pay-off of an exotic option? For example, might we say the distribution of the pay-off a vanilla option would be Normal? I have built a valuation tool that ...
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0answers
375 views

Local volatility grids - Monte carlo - Implementation [closed]

I read the paper "Monte Carlo pricing with local volatility grids" (authors: D.F. Abasto, B. Hientzsch and M.P. Kust) and I would like to know if anyone on this forum had a chance to implement it as I ...
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3answers
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Simulate correlated Geometric Brownian Motion in the R programming language

In response to this question: How to simulate correlated Geometric brownian motion for n assets? One of the responses provides an implementation in MATLAB: http://www.goddardconsulting.ca/matlab-...