Questions tagged [monte-carlo]

Monte Carlo simulation methods are a broad class of computational algorithms that rely on repeated random sampling to obtain numerical results.

Filter by
Sorted by
Tagged with
1
vote
1answer
215 views

Calculate control variate for monte carlo simulation

For an exercise I need to calculate $\mathbb{E}[X]$ with a Monte Carlo simulation. I need to use control variate $Y$ with $\text{Var}(Y)=2$ and $\text{Cov}(X,Y)=1$. I am asked to give the optimale ...
1
vote
1answer
112 views

Martingale correction for Andersen scheme with Interest Rate

I have implemented martingale correction to my Andersen scheme for Heston model, as it is in the paper (page 19-22): http://www.ressources-actuarielles.net/EXT/ISFA/1226.nsf/0/...
1
vote
0answers
283 views

Heston model - Andersen scheme implementation

I would like to implement Andersen scheme for Heston simulation. On the following snipped is my code for generating asset path: ...
4
votes
1answer
1k views

Simulating returns from ARMA(1,0)-GARCH(1,1) model

I want to obtain a simulation of one-step ahead forecasts of stock returns process governed by ARMA(1,0)-GARCH(1,1) process. The returns are of form: $x_t = \mu + \delta x_{t-1} + \sigma_t z_t$ From ...
1
vote
2answers
4k views

Barrier option : Monte carlo simulation

I am trying to price a Down-and-Out Call using Monte Carlo simulation. The problem is that I get the right price for the vanilla option (same price as the analytic formula of Black and Scholes) but I ...
4
votes
2answers
1k views

Geometric Brownian Motion - increasing simulations or smaller step size

I am running Monte Carlo simulations to estimate future share prices of some stocks. For stock A, I need 1 share price exactly one year from now. For stock B, I need daily prices for each trading ...
1
vote
1answer
268 views

Geometric Brownian Motion: d(S) vs. d(ln(S))

I am quoting from "Tools for Computational Finance, 5th Edition" [Seydel]. I wonder whether the histogram of simulations of the first (yellow) SDE makes sense... especially given that Seydel (...
1
vote
0answers
524 views

Simulating Option Positions VaR with Monte Carlo in Python

I'm trying to calculate VaR for overall option positions. Currently I do a MC simulation for the underlying, and derive the theoretical value of the option from those theoretically. Then I calculate ...
4
votes
2answers
1k views

How many monte carlo runs do I need for pricing a Call?

I have to price several calls using Monte Carlo. Obviously, there is a huge tradeoff between the number of runs and the fair price of the call option. I know I can check how the approximation changes ...
2
votes
2answers
361 views

Deduce expected exposure profile from option/structure delta?

I am thinking about whether there exists a relationship between the delta of an option (or any structured derivative) and it's expected positive/negative exposure? An intuitive question would be the ...
4
votes
2answers
361 views

Foresight bias in least square monte carlo

Foresight bias means we tend to over estimate the American option value. This we observe in other areas of statistics - e.g. in sample test almost always gives better prediction than out of sample ...
1
vote
0answers
428 views

Adding Asset Weights To Cholesky Output - Monte Carlo in VBA

I am looking to create a Monte Carlo generator in Excel to plot correlated asset paths for a portfolio containing 1 to 10 assets. I have the correlation matrix for all 10 assets and have performed the ...
4
votes
2answers
2k views

Stopping Monte Carlo simulation once certain convergence level is reached

I'm creating a Monte Carlo simulation model which I use to price an European option with various pay-off conditions, hence I can't use Black Scholes. I want to stop the simulation once I am 95% sure ...
3
votes
0answers
85 views

Intraday Value at Risk approximations

We use full valuation of derivatives portfolios using scenarios from historical data. For simple contracts, this is relatively fast. For contracts requiring monte carlo simulation, this becomes ...
2
votes
1answer
213 views

Testing a Monte Carlo simulation independently

I'm building a Monte Carlo option pricing model in Python/SciPy. I want to test the results produced by the Python code by building the model independently in Excel and then comparing the results. Off ...
0
votes
1answer
168 views

Least-Square Monte Carlo in multiple variable

The paper by Longstaff-Schwatz on Least Square Monte Carlo offers very little proof. The only proof they have given assumed the option can only be exercised at two different time point and the price ...
3
votes
1answer
291 views

Monte Carlo Convergence

Let $\{X_i\}$ be an i.i.d. sample of $X$ with $E(X) = \mu$ and $Var(X) = \sigma^2$. We know a MC estimate converges to the true value almost surely by the SLLN. That is, $$ \bar{X}_n \to \mu, \...
3
votes
2answers
621 views

Sobol numbers in monte Carlo simulation

I wanted to figure how how much faster the Sobol quasi random numbers convergence to the B&S call price compared with pseudo random numbers. To generate the Sobol numbers I used the randtoolbox in ...
1
vote
0answers
35 views

Methods Available for Derivative Pricing in Mathematica? [closed]

I am using Mathematica to price options (built in functions, no need to reinvent the wheel, right?). In the documentation, the Binomial method is used as an example of specifying a non-standard method....
3
votes
1answer
268 views

QuantLib C++: Monte Carlo Engine with SequenceStatistics

I'm trying to implement a Monte Carlo PricingEngine that stores multidimensional statistics. I have done the following: Defined a Monte Carlo Trait that among other things stores as the ...
1
vote
0answers
217 views

Monte Carlo simulation of Multifractional Brownian Motion in MATLAB

Code under is taken from http://en.literateprograms.org/Monte_Carlo_simulation_(Matlab) ...
1
vote
1answer
150 views

Monte Carlo VaR assuming logistic distribution

I have a Monte Carlo model which measures the Value at Risk (VaR) for given portfolio. I use the geometric brownian motion to model the prices. But let's say I assumed the returns of prices follow the ...
7
votes
2answers
598 views

Whites Reality Check for Pair Trading

I want to use the Monte Carlo Method described in Aronsons book Evidence based Technical Analysis to test if a given pairs trading strategy is useless. First step there is to randomize the returns of ...
2
votes
1answer
320 views

Correlated random variables with additional autocorrelation - multi dimensional Cholesky?

For my thesis I'm currently generating several time series of random numbers, so far so good. Now I realized some autocorrelation in the series as well and don't really know how to cope with it. Can I ...
1
vote
0answers
21 views

Multiple similar values simulation

Perhaps some of you came across the following task that I am trying to automate for @RISK, VOSE or other simulation software? I have a question as we are trying to use the software to estimate the ...
1
vote
1answer
493 views

CVA as a running spread - risk annuity calculation in the Monte Carlo framework

I have simulated future term structures in the one-factor Hull-White model and calculated the CVA of a particular trade (let's say, now I have it in absolute value, in dollars). However, I want to ...
3
votes
2answers
1k views

Why does changing the time step size in my Monte Carlo simulation change my result a lot?

I have written some software to price a call option using Monte Carlo simulation. It produces a price which is consistent with the model when I set the time step as recommended in a tutorial that I ...
0
votes
1answer
171 views

Projecting cash flows via Monte Carlo Simulation

I am looking to model the cash flows associated with a company as part of a Project finance experiment, where I got the idea from here. I'm looking to project cash flows for an Automotive company in ...
0
votes
1answer
126 views

Interpretation of vega out of BS formula

I am comparing Monte Carlo estimates of VaR (using importance sampling) under both the normal and student distributions. I am also considering risk factors other than log-prices; in particular, ...
1
vote
2answers
373 views

European call down and out option (geometric Brownian motion, Monte Carlo, Euler)

I need to estimate the expected value and the Greeks of an European call down and out option, assuming geometrical Brownian motion of the asset, with Monte Carlo simulation employing Euler ...
2
votes
2answers
252 views

What are some examples of non-solvable SDE where Monte Carlo discretization is necessary

Reading Glasserman - "Monte Carlo Methods in Finance" it says in the introduction to Chapter 6 - Discretization Methods, that moste models arising in derivatives pricing can be simulated only ...
2
votes
0answers
868 views

Forecast of ARMA-GARCH model in R

I managed to forecast a GARCH model yesterday and run a Monte Carlo simulation on R. Nevertheless, I can't do the same with an ARMA-GARCH. I tested 4 different method but without achieving an ARMA-...
3
votes
1answer
154 views

Evaluation of the semi-closed Heston pricing formula for call options

I'd like to know, how the integral part of the semi-closed Heston pricing formula for call options can be simulated for a given set of model parameters. Monte Carlo simulations shoud work for this ...
4
votes
2answers
565 views

Monte Carlo, convexity and Risk-Neutral ZCB Pricing

I've built a simplistic Excel monte carlo model to price a zero-coupon bond, but it came up with a slightly unepxected result so I wanted to confirm whether my maths is just a little rusty or my model ...
1
vote
1answer
99 views

Should earnings be modelled normally or lognormally?

I am having difficulty deciding whether a company's earnings should be modelled normally or lognormally. If we consider two arguments: (i) The earnings of a company are the returns on the assets of ...
2
votes
0answers
1k views

Simulation of Heston process

I am currently working on implementing Heston model in matlab for option pricing (in this case I am trying to price a European call) and I wanted to compare the results I obtain from using the exact ...
2
votes
1answer
3k views

How to use Halton sequence in monte carlo simulation

Does anybody know how to use the Halton pseudo random technique in monte carlo simulation. I'm able to generate the sequences and I know they are correct. I checked a couple of numbers from different ...
4
votes
1answer
1k views

How to do a Brownian Bridge with quasi-random numbers in the Heston model?

I'm required to use the Euler Monte Carlo method to compute the option price under Heston model settings. I know from some paper that the convergence is volatile for the Heston model with a plain ...
4
votes
1answer
257 views

How do you deal with Inflation lag in a MC simulation?

Consider the UK RPI index. This index is published every month around the 15th (give or take a few days). The publication refers to the RPI index of the month before, so there is a lag of a few weeks ...
4
votes
2answers
448 views

Importance Sampling - where to center the sampling distribution?

Consider a Monte Carlo (MC) approximation to a European call with BS parameters $r = 0.05, \sigma = 0.4, T = 10, S_0 = 50$ and $K = 95$. Consider the following results, each using 1M points: plain ...
11
votes
3answers
5k views

Black-Scholes under stochastic interest rates

I'm trying to implement the Black-Scholes formula to price a call option under stochastic interest rates. Following the book of McLeish (2005), the formula is given by (assuming interest rates are ...
2
votes
0answers
286 views

Initial values for Heston Model calibration

I'm doing a Heston model in Matlab using simple Monte Carlo simulations (5.000 paths and 2 steps per day, simulating 360 days). When I try to calibrate the Heston parameters using fminsearch it takes ...
5
votes
1answer
300 views

Simulate (imaginary) asset prices using random numbers that follow a Frank Copula

I didn't understand how to simulate asset prices by using non normal random numbers. I am assuming that it would be incorrect to use the standard Geometric Brownian Motion, since it is based solely ...
6
votes
3answers
3k views

Greeks: Why does my Monte Carlo give correct delta but incorrect gamma?

For a vanilla European call, my Monte Carlo method gives the right option price and delta but the wrong gamma. In particular, the value of gamma varies wildly each time I run the method. I estimate ...
0
votes
1answer
1k views

Compute cross-gamma

I am trying to use delta-gamma method with montecarlo simulations to calculate the VAR of a portfolio consisting in options and equities. To use the method I need to compute a gamma matrix, that has ...
3
votes
1answer
730 views

Best way to do multithread Monte-Carlo in QuantLib

QuantLib has great facilities for Monte-Carlo pricing engines, classes McSimulation and MonteCarloModel do a lot of work. But they do it in a single thread. What is best way to introduce parallel run ...
8
votes
1answer
751 views

Speeding up computations: when to use Quasi and standard Monte-Carlo in pricing

I am familiar with the theory of Monte-Carlo techniques in the numerical integration, and recently I have started my experiments with these methods applied to derivatives pricing. I am using ...
12
votes
4answers
2k views

Are these steps correct to calculate Value-at-Risk with a Monte Carlo simulation?

I have a problem calculating VaR with the Monte Carlo Simulation. I followed the next steps and would like know if it is a right way to calculate VaR or if I need something more? The steps Generate ...
5
votes
0answers
79 views

How to price lookback american option when its payment is distributed during its life

I would like to price a floating strike american lookback with a particular feature: I don't want to charge upfront the client, rather I would like to insert a "running fee", some sort of a dividend. ...
6
votes
1answer
293 views

(Re) normalisation of random variable in Monte-Carlo simulations

I have a very simple model (CIR) with a very simple discretisation scheme (Euler) and I use it to do Monte-Carlo Simulations. It is working. Someone insisted that renormalization of my random ...